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What’s next for MLB's qualifying offer players? Dates to know and free agency predictions

Just know that over $23 million is at stake.

Collecting a guaranteed $23.1 million certainly sounds good to us, especially in the current job market. Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers and Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena are among the eight players who received qualifying offers on Monday, and they must decide their plans in the coming weeks. 

For the unfamiliar, the qualifying offer is a one-year, fully guaranteed contract. We saw four veterans, most notably Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres and Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham, play this past season on the QO ahead of re-entering free agency this winter. 

We have everything you need to know about the 2026 MLB qualifying offers, starting with the official dates.

The deadline for players to make qualifying offer decisions

New York Yankees relief pitcher David Bednar | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The eight players who received the qualifying offer must make their decision by Tuesday, Nov. 17. Those who decline the QO will immediately hit free agency, and their previous employers cannot keep them from signing elsewhere; the qualifying offer is not like the NFL’s franchise tag, which often leads to offseason holdouts.

Teams can continue negotiating with players who refuse the qualifying offer, and anyone who signs the QO is still eligible for an extension. So if David Bednar accepted the Yankees’ qualifying offer, the two sides could theoretically later agree on a long-term deal. 

Pitchers who received the qualifying offer

LHP Adrian Morejon

National League Division Series: San Diego Padres v Milwaukee Brewers - Game One | Patrick McDermott/GettyImages

Morejon's health was in question as the Padres bowed out to the Brewers in the NLDS, but he enters this winter as the clear-cut top reliever on the market — with an expectation to get paid like it. He'll only turn 28 in February, and his track record speaks for itself: a 2.58 ERA across the last three seasons, with the ability to work multiple innings at a time and pitch to both lefties and righties. Morejon will almost certainly turn down the QO in search of a three- or four-year deal worth around $16 million-$18 million per.

Where Adrian Morejon will sign: Philadelphia Phillies

Money will be a bit tight for the Phillies given their expensive core, but they have a glaring need for lefty bullpen help with Jose Alvarado hitting free agency. If they can't win bidding wars for Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena, why not pivot to run prevention and make a run at Morejon? He'd form one heck of a 1-2 punch with Jhoan Duran, as Philly tries to pitch its way back to the World Series.

RHP David Bednar

If Morejon is No. 1 in the relief market, Bednar is the clear No. 2, one of the more underrated closers in the sport who did yeoman's work for the Yankees over the last couple of seasons. He, too, seems likely to turn down the QO, knowing full well a multiyear deal well into eight figures per is waiting in free agency.

Where David Bednar will sign: New York Yankees

The Yankees don't often splurge on their bullpen in free agency, but they're liable to make an exception for Bednar, who held the unit together in 2026 and has already proven he can thrive in New York. Brian Cashman has several relief spots to fill, but he also needs an anchor, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the two sides come together after he turns down the QO.

LHP Trevor Rogers

Milwaukee Brewers v Baltimore Orioles | G Fiume/GettyImages

Rogers is a more borderline case, but I still think he'll wind up rejecting the qualifying offer. There's just such an overwhelming need for proven starting pitching around the league, and he's settled in as a No. 3-4 option over the last 18 months in Baltimore. In this market, someone will give a lefty of his stature about to enter his age-29 season a healthy multiyear deal, even if they have to fork over draft capital to do so.

Where Trevor Rogers will sign: Baltimore Orioles (new deal)

Of course, the O's would be hit with no such penalty, and they certainly need more rotation depth behind Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and their bevy of youngsters. In a perfect world, that would be a frontline pitcher, but there's nothing saying Baltimore can't do both. A reunion feels like it makes sense here for both sides.

Position players who received the qualifying offer

OF Seiya Suzuki

Along with the next guy on this list, Suzuki is in the running for the title of best hitter on the market this winter. Add in how few reliable righty-hitting outfielders there are any more, and he's a virtual lock to turn down the QO and cash in with a deal that could push nine figures if bidding gets hot enough.

Where Seiya Suzuki will sign: Toronto Blue Jays

It just feels like the Jays make too much sense here. They need an impact bat for the middle of this lineup, and their corner outfield situation is wide open with George Springer saying goodbye. Plus, it's a large, cosmopolitan city that has experience welcoming Japanese free agents. He checks every box, and we know Toronto isn't shy about going after its top priorities this time of year.

OF Randy Arozarena

Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners | Jack Compton/GettyImages

Whether you prefer Suzuki or Arozarena at the top of this position player market likely depends on what you value most, or what your specific team needs. Like Suzuki, Arozarena is entering his age-32 season, with a long track record of offensive production. His defense and athleticism are a tick worse, though, so you probably feel slightly better about how Suzuki will age. Either way, both players are hunting four- or five-year deals with a $20 million AAV as a starting point.

Where Randy Arozarena will sign: Boston Red Sox

Boston is crying out for more righty pop, especially given how lefty-heavy their outfield is. If they finally move on from Jarren Duran and/or Masataka Yoshida this offseason, Arozarena would be the ideal replacement, complementing Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu and slotting in right behind Willson Contreras.

2B Brandon Lowe

On the surface, Lowe looks like a star, coming off a season in which he hit 35 homers with a 121 OPS+ in 150 games while playing strong defense at second base. Of course, he'll turn 33 next July, and both the glove and the games played last year stand out as outliers. (He's played 110 games or more exactly three times across nine big-league seasons.) In such a thin market, he should still crack the $20 million a year mark on a multiyear deal, but it'll be fascinating to see how much interest he garners.

Where Brandon Lowe will sign: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers might just choose to run it back yet again with Gleyber Torres, but they need to do something to boost this offense, and Lowe's lefty power plays just about anywhere. It's not necessarily the age profile that Scott Harris loves to invest in, but if you can get him on a four-year deal, he can make a big difference while sliding into a corner spot later on.

C Ryan Jeffers

Texas Rangers v Minnesota Twins | Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/GettyImages

Jeffers is far and away the best catcher in free agency, and depending on how things go with trade talks around William Contreras, Shea Langeliers and Hunter Goodman, he could be far and away the best catcher available period. His defense is just OK, but the bat is elite for the position, and he won't turn 30 until next June. Someone will give him a multiyear deal worth turning down the QO.

Where Ryan Jeffers will sign: Minnesota Twins (new deal)

There will be other suitors here, including big markets like the New York Yankees (who were in on Jeffers trade talks around the deadline). But the Twins are making noise about spending a little money at long last, and they're the one team that won't have to give up draft picks to sign him. Minnesota could be competitive in the AL Central next season thanks to a burgeoning young core.

1B/OF Jake Bauers

Bauers is a tricky case; he was sensational for the Brewers on their World Series run, but was 2026 a one-year wonder? Will he be able to recapture whatever magic he found away from Milwaukee? Given all those unknowns, taking the QO and proving it again in 2027 might make sense. Then again, why not try and strike while the iron is hot, and while you're in a weak free agent class? I think he can get at least a three-year deal somewhere.

Where Jake Bauers will sign: New York Mets

The Mets need corner infield production, and Bauers could immediately stabilize a first-base position that was infamously a sore spot last season. David Stearns is not one to treat draft capital lightly, but if Bauers can be had for, say, three years and $50 million, that might prove to be a bargain without leaving you on the hook for anything beyond his age-33 campaign.

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