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Florida Open Division Bubble Watch: Lakeland, Cardinal Mooney Separated by 0.05 Points

Clearwater Central Catholic, American Heritage, and unbeaten Raines are also within half a rating point of the final projected spot entering Week 11.

Cardinal Mooney running back Connail Jackson (34) carries the ball against Clearwater Central Catholic on Oct. 2, 2026. The Cougars trail Lakeland by 0.05 rating points for Florida’s final projected Open Division spot. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Clearwater Central Catholic, American Heritage and unbeaten Raines are also within half a rating point of the final projected spot entering Week 11.

Lakeland has won seven straight games, yet its place in Florida’s first Open Division football playoff field remains unsettled.

The Dreadnaughts hold the eighth and final spot in the current eligible projection, with Cardinal Mooney just 0.05 rating points behind. Clearwater Central Catholic, American Heritage and Raines are also within half a point of the cutoff entering Week 11.

The eight highest-ranked eligible teams from Classes 1A-6A will leave their classification brackets to compete for the Open Division title. Selection will use the final regular-season FHSA playoff rankings.

The projected positions below use the Oct. 25 update. Independent IMG Academy is excluded, as is Carol City under its reported postseason ban. A change in eligibility would require the field to be recalculated.

8. Lakeland (8-1): 84.54

Lakeland holds the final projected spot and hosts The First Academy on Friday, Oct. 30, putting two projected qualifiers on the same field. The Royals enter at 7-1 and sit sixth in the eligible projection.

The Dreadnaughts are coming off a 35-10 win over Lake Gibson and have held their past three opponents to 10 points or fewer. Their seven-game winning streak also includes a 21-16 victory over American Heritage, one of the teams now chasing them.

With four contenders within 0.44 points, Lakeland’s finish will draw attention well beyond Bryant Stadium.

Lakeland’s Donares Johnson (2) runs into the end zone for a touchdown against Manatee. The Dreadnaughts enter Week 11 holding Florida’s final projected Open Division spot with an 84.54 rating. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

9. Cardinal Mooney (8-1): 84.49

Cardinal Mooney is the first team outside the projected field, trailing Lakeland by 0.05 points. The Cougars host SmartEn Sports Academy on Friday after a 58-36 road win over Palm Beach Central. Mooney has won seven straight, while SmartEn enters at 2-7.

The Cougars’ only loss was a 47-46 game against Cardinal Newman on Aug. 28. They have since beaten Clearwater Central Catholic 47-35, giving them a victory over another contender in this race.

Newman is seventh in the eligible projection, leaving Mooney just outside a field that includes the only team to beat it.

The Cougars have won seven straight games and sit just outside Florida’s projected Open Division field entering Week 11. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

10. Clearwater Central Catholic (7-2): 84.34

Clearwater Central Catholic sits 0.20 points behind Lakeland and hosts 9-0 Clearwater at 7:30 p.m. Friday. The Marauders have a chance to close their regular season by handing the Tornadoes their first loss.

The Marauders have responded to consecutive losses against Cardinal Mooney and Berkeley Prep by beating Boca Ciega 31-0 and Lakewood 42-6.

Clearwater brings a different test from those past two opponents. A win would give the Marauders a win over an unbeaten team, as the final ratings determine whether they enter the Open Division.

The Marauders enter Week 11 just 0.20 rating points behind Florida’s final projected Open Division spot. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

11. American Heritage, Plantation (6-3): 84.28

American Heritage trails the final projected spot by 0.26 points after finishing its listed regular-season schedule with a 26-18 win at McArthur on Oct. 23. The Patriots have won four straight, and their schedule lists no additional regular-season game.

That leaves Heritage watching a race in which several nearby contenders still have a game to play. Its 21-16 loss at Lakeland adds another connection to Friday’s Dreadnaughts–First Academy matchup.

Heritage’s final standing will depend on how its existing results hold up as the ratings account for the rest of the schedule.

The Patriots have completed their regular-season schedule and sit 0.26 rating points behind Florida’s final projected Open Division spot. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

12. Raines (9-0): 84.10

Raines is 0.44 points behind Lakeland and fourth in line outside the projected field despite its unbeaten record. The Vikings are coming off a 35-20 win at Cocoa and next host Ribault in the Northwest Classic at 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 31. The Trojans enter at 5-4.

Raines has beaten Mandarin, Venice and Cocoa, putting together a season that could end with a perfect regular-season record. Reaching the Open Division would also require enough movement in the final ratings to carry the Vikings past teams above them.

The Vikings enter Week 11 of the 2026 season unbeaten at 9-0, sitting 0.44 rating points behind Florida’s final projected Open Division spot. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Why a Win Does Not Guarantee an Open Division Berth

For the schools chasing Lakeland, winning games is only part of the race. Their final destination will depend on where they stand among all eligible teams when the rankings used for selection are finalized.

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