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The Denver Broncos have a nice four-game winning streak going, and they now sit atop the AFC West after beating the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, the Broncos must guard against riding the high of the win and dropping this coming game against the Carolina Panthers. The Broncos have to travel east for an early game, a trip that has historically challenged them, though that track record has significantly improved under Sean Payton.
To avoid a potential upset by the Panthers, which would be costly heading into the bye week, the Broncos will need to win two critical matchups. The biggest matchups come down to a wide receiver vs. a cornerback on both sides of the ball.
Let's dig into these matchups and why they're so important to the Broncos.
The Broncos have struggled to find consistency with Sutton and rekindle his connection with Bo Nix. Sutton has been the Broncos' second-most-targeted receiver, behind Jaylen Waddle, with 36 targets, but ranks third in receptions, with only 20.
Sutton has 221 yards with a single touchdown through eight games. His usual strength in contested catches hasn't been there, with only three contested catches on eight such targets, though he did come down with one last week against the Chiefs.
The Panthers' secondary isn't a good unit, and it's largely because of the injuries they've sustained. Denver should look at getting Sutton matched up on Lee, forcing Waddle to a different cornerback, which is a topic I'll dig into in a different article.
Before getting into Lee in coverage, one reason the Broncos should like this matchup is his tackling issues against bigger receivers. Denver needs Sutton to find his footing in that regard.
As for coverage, Lee has been targeted 42 times, allowing 27 catches. He plays aggressively in coverage and does have five pass break-ups this season, but that has also led to some big plays being relinquished, as his aggressiveness can burn him.
Lee has given up two plays over 40 yards and allowed 335 total receiving yards, the 11th-most among NFL cornerbacks. Denver needs to win this matchup to help out its other favorable matchup with Waddle.
This is the obvious one. The Panthers' offense runs through McMillan, who has the NFL's 12th-most targets, 12th-most receptions, and 11th-most yards among 33 qualifying receivers. He is the majority of the Panthers' offense, and if you can limit or eliminate him, you're setting yourself up for major success.
Denver must put its top corner on McMillan and let Surtain do his thing. It won't be easy, and Surtain isn't infallible, but he is one of the best corners in the NFL and is trustworthy.
The challenge comes in the routes McMillan runs the most. McMillan's main route-running hits correspond to the ones Surtain typically struggles against. Vance Joseph could make slight coverage adjustments to give Surtain a hand.
"He's a big receiver. He has great body control," Surtain said of McMillan on Wednesday. "He can run every route in the route tree, so I'm looking forward to that matchup."
If Surtain and the Broncos can't limit or eliminate McMillan, this game will be much harder to win, especially in front of the Panthers' home crowd. The Broncos could still win the game if McMillan has a day, because there's too much in football for one area to have that big an impact, outside of the quarterback.
It's about making the defense's job easier. Limiting McMillan would help Denver put some extra focus on stopping the Panthers' run game.