Wrexham head to Ewood Park on Saturday as underdogs, at least on paper.

Blackburn sit a point above them in the Championship, have taken nine points from five home games and have been called one of the surprise packages of the season. Most neutrals are backing a home win.

Dig a little deeper, though, and Tony Mowbray’s side may not be quite what they seem.

Blackburn’s underlying numbers are the worst in the Championship

According to FotMob, Blackburn have the lowest expected points (xPTS) total in the division, at just 10. They actually have 15, one of the biggest overperformances in the league.

Their expected goals difference (xGD) of -8.7 is the worst in the Championship. They’ve created just 10.9xG, the second-lowest total in the division, yet scored 17 goals. Only Stoke have outperformed their xG by more.

At the other end, only Watford have conceded more xG than Blackburn’s 19.6, but they’ve let in just 16. Goalkeeper Balazs Toth has played his part, with data compiled by @louorns showing him saving more than expected despite facing some of the toughest shots of any Championship goalkeeper.

At home, Blackburn have lost the xG battle in four of their five league games at Ewood Park, yet won three of them. They beat Middlesbrough 2-1 despite trailing 1.43 to 0.91 on xG, and Millwall 3-1 despite trailing 1.63 to 1.23. Only against Cardiff did they clearly create more than their opponents.

That doesn’t make Blackburn a bad side. Clinical finishing and a goalkeeper in form win points, and Mowbray deserves credit for getting results. But over a season, numbers like these tend to catch up with teams.

Wrexham’s numbers paint a much healthier picture

Wrexham’s xGD is close to even, at -0.9, and their xPTS total of 15 almost exactly matches the 14 they’ve picked up. They’ve conceded just 12.9xG, the sixth-lowest in the division, which shows how hard they are to create chances against.

The problem has been the goals going in. Wrexham have conceded 3.1 more than their xG suggests, which could well be down to Anthony Patterson’s struggles in goal this season.

Mowbray is wary of the threat Phil Parkinson’s side pose. “They have spent a lot of money and they’re a big, physical threat,” he said, and he’ll be without Ryoya Morishita, who is unlikely to recover from an ankle injury in time. Yuri Ribeiro and Yuki Ohashi are also expected to miss out, as per the Lancashire Telegraph, while Adam Forshaw faces a spell on the sidelines.

Wrexham, meanwhile, have been boosted by Ben Sheaf’s return to full training, although Josh Windass and Nathan Broadhead are still out.

None of this guarantees anything. Wrexham have won just once in five away league games this season, and xG doesn’t win matches on its own. But on the evidence of the numbers, there’s little reason for Parkinson’s side to travel to Lancashire fearing the worst.