The 2026 F1 season run-in is still up in the air, with few paddock insiders or experts knowing exactly how this year’s championship will end.

The ongoing conflict and tensions in the Middle East mean that the last two races of 2026, in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, still look in doubt.

It now appears that the series has three main options for how to bring the season to a close. We assess them below.

How will F1 end the 2026 season?

Option 1: Keep the calendar unchanged and race at Qatar and Abu Dhabi

As it stands, Formula 1 and its FIA governing body are still insisting that the Qatar GP (November 27-29) and Abu Dhabi (December 04-06) will end this year’s world championship.

The recent attacks on Saudi Arabian airports, though, mean that flights to Qatar and Saudi Arabia that go through its airspace look at risk.

Despite that, FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem said: "I can only tell you today that there is nothing and the two races are going to happen."

At October’s Bahrain GP in Malaysia, F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali was similarly defiant.

"Yes, as we've already said, the calendar is confirmed: the last two Grands Prix will be in Qatar and Abu Dhabi,” he said.

“This is the direction we've taken based on the information and reassurances we have - and which we absolutely must have, of course. It's the strategy we'll apply until the end of the year."

However, F1 later clarified that the races could still be subject to change if the circumstances required.

Several drivers, including Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen, have spoken out against racing in the region at this time.

However, their teams are choosing to publicly defer to F1 and the FIA instead of airing their concerns in the press.

“We actually do trust the FIA and F1, because that's the reality in all seriousness, it is a serious topic, [...] and it is typically the FIA and F1’s task to approach it in the most complete way with a full set of informations and to give us the direction on that,” said Red Bull boss Laurent Mekies in Mexico.

However, it’s been reported by the BBC that many in the paddock are uncomfortable with making the trip to the Middle East.

That feeling is shared with MotoGP, the motorcycle series also run by F1’s owner, Liberty, which is racing in Qatar this weekend (November 6-8).

One of the championship’s biggest teams, Yamaha, has already withdrawn from the event, citing safety concerns.

Elsewhere, the World Rally Championship cancelled its round in Saudi Arabia, while the Dakar Rally has moved its January event from the country to North Africa.

With the New York Times reporting that, despite Donald Trump’s mid-term election losses, the US and Israeli forces were building plans for a “short and intensive” offensive in Iran soon, this will have done little to reassure anyone in F1, MotoGP or elsewhere.

As part of its pre-event media information, the Lusail circuit in Qatar sent MotoGP staff and press instructions on what to do in case of an attack.

If F1 cancels the two Middle East races, various sources have reported that it would stand to lose around $100m - $180m (£74.2m) in race hosting fees.

Option 2: Race at Imola instead of both Qatar and Abu Dhabi

If F1 does decide to cut its losses in the Middle East this year, it’s become public knowledge that the races would be swapped for a single event at the Imola circuit in Italy.

A well-loved classic venue, the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari returned to the World Championship after an extended absence during Covid, but was dropped again after 2025.

There are also different options on the Imola plan. Either both Middle East races could be cancelled for Imola, or just Qatar could go ahead and then the paddock could be flown into Europe for an Imola race after that.

Audi F1 boss Mattia Binotto said in Baku at the end of September that “mid-October is the last call for such a decision” on Imola, before paddock insider Adam Cooper reported that this was then pushed back to November 10.

Option 3: End the season in Las Vegas

The F1 season could also come to an early close, with the season ending in Las Vegas instead.

Putting aside the massive financial cost of F1 losing its last two Middle East races, with the drivers’ championship now settled - and Mercedes’ lead in the constructors’ almost unassailable - there will be reduced pressure on the series to run the calendar to its full length.

Therefore, the championship could bring the curtain down at Las Vegas instead - a glamorous location to match the occasion.