The two top teams in the AFC West meet for the second and final time in the 2026 regular season on Sunday afternoon, as Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Denver has weathered a very tough schedule to open the 2026 season, beating the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals to begin the year at 5-2. While Denver’s offense has not been great (22nd in EPA/Play), the defense is a top-10 unit once again.

Nix and Co. seemed to find a rhythm in a win over Arizona in Week 7, and they’ll look to carry that into a home date against Mahomes and the one-loss Chiefs. 

Kansas City dominated Denver at home in Week 1, winning by three touchdowns, but it’s coming off a shaky performance against the Seattle Seahawks in a loss in Week 7. The Chiefs are still 5-1 this season, but they scored just three points in their last game and failed to reach the red zone on a single possession.

Will a Denver defense that has been red hot in recent weeks be able to slow down Kenneth Walker III and this Chiefs attack? 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been sharing final score predictions as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread, moneyline and total bets. Plus, we’ve hit a few exact scores, which can make for a fun long shot bet from time to time during the season. 

With a ton at stake in this matchup – including first place in the AFC West – here’s a look at my prediction for the Chiefs vs. Broncos rematch in Week 8. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Chiefs -1.5 (-105)
• Broncos +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Chiefs: -118
• Broncos: -102

Total

• 40.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

There hasn’t been much movement in the odds for this game, as the Chiefs opened as 1.5-point road favorites even with their loss to Seattle on Sunday night. The total has dropped a point from 41.5 to 40.5, and it’s worth noting that the UNDER hit in this matchup in Week 1 with the Chiefs winning 31-10. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Score Prediction

This week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for every single game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s buying the Chiefs on the road in this AFC West showdown: 

The Broncos' offensive issues and Bo Nix's play are going to haunt them against a good defense sooner rather than later. Their offense is 23rd in EPA per play and 29th in success rate, making them one of the worst offenses in the league through the first seven weeks. Now they take on a Chiefs team that has been impressive defensively, ranking fifth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I'd like to see the Chiefs' offense lean on the run game even more moving forward, as they rank in the top three in every offensive rushing metric. They can use that weapon against a Broncos defense that has struggled to stop the run compared to recent seasons. They're 27th in opponent rush EPA.

If the Chiefs can lean on their run game and continue to play good defense, they're going to get the road win and cover the short spread.

A lot of this game comes down to two things: 

Do you believe in the Denver offense after a strong Week 7? And, how much stock do you put into Kansas City’s Week 1 win at home? 

The Broncos are still just 22nd in EPA/Play, 29th in success rate and 26th in yards per play on offense. That isn’t going to cut it against Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III, especially since Denver is allowing 4.6 yards per carry on defense.

These teams are No. 5 (Kansas City) and No. 6 (Denver) in EPA/Play on the defensive side of the ball, and the UNDER has hit in the majority of both of their games. I expect another low-scoring affair with the Chiefs’ offense ultimately being the better unit on Sunday. 

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17