The NFL is unpredictable in nature. Last week, I expected Bam Knight to outperform Tyler Allegeier and for KC Concepcion to have an explosive week. Both happened. Now I look towards Week 8. What might happen that is not quite expected? The following four bold predictions answer that question.

Geno Smith is a Top-5 QB

Over Smith's last two games, he is averaging over 9.0 Yards per Attempt. For comparison, only one NFL quarterback (Lamar Jackson) is averaging that much over the entire season. In those same two prior games, Smith is completing 72% of his passes, perhaps not so coincidentally that he has Omar Cooper Jr. back in the lineup.

Smith's median passing attempts per game is 33. Over his last three games, Smith has thrown at least 33 passes. As for this Sunday's matchup, the Raiders rank 27th in EPA per Pass Allowed. He is projected as a high-end QB2 this weekend, but his upside is certainly top-5.

Bijan Robinson is NOT a Top-5 RB

It seems impossible that a healthy Robinson could not finish top-5. But I see that as a realistic possibility. It comes down a combination of his matchup, and other running back matchups this week.

The Buccaneers, who will try to stop Robinson, rank 6th-best in EPA per Rush Allowed. The following matchups are ones that I love in Week 8 fantasy football, and I do think they can easily outperform Robinson.

()* is ranking in EPA per Rush Allowed — 32nd is the most favorable matchup.

• Saquon Barkley vs. WSH (31st)
• Kenneth Walker III vs. DEN (29th)
• Bhayshul Tuten vs. IND (28th)
• Derrick Henry vs. BUF (25th)
• Jeremiyah Love vs. DAL (23rd)

Dolphins Upset the Patriots

The matchup is very mild for the Dolphins offense. The Patriots' defense, which was dominant in 2025, ranks 19th in EPA per Pass and 15th in EPA per Rush Allowed. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have scored 52 points in their last two games, including a road win over the Jets last week.

This game is at Hard Rock Stadium, a Miami home game. It has historically been a difficult place to play, given the humidity above all else. Miami has the 7th-best home field advantage over the past five seasons. The current weather report calls for a high of 81 degrees and an 80% chance of rain, making it not just sloppy but humid.

As a result, I expect a strong fantasy day from multiple Dolphins. Malik Willis is among the top rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, and Ollie Gordon is having a splendid year, averaging 4.7 Yards per Attempt and scoring 1 touchdown per 18 rushing attempts.

Chig Okonkwo is Weekly Starting Tight End

Okonkwo has spent much of this year injured, but he has played two games in a row and played quite well. Okonkwo has 11 receptions for 129 yards over those last two games. His catch rate is 92%.

In games in which he's been healthy, Okonkwo has a 90% route-running rate. In his last game, Okonkwo ran 40 routes.

With Terry McLaurin out for the season, the Commanders will spread the ball around. Dan Quinn even said that this past week. I would consider Okonkwo to be Jayden Daniels' No. 3 target, but he can surpass both Antonio Williams and Stefon Diggs on any given Sunday. Okonkwo is a fantasy football weekly starter in my eyes.

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