The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were convinced Baker Mayfield was "their guy" coming into the 2026 season. The three-year, $165 million contract extension is proof. Their conviction is proving to be a massive error.

Mayfield is the third-highest-paid player in the NFL, averaging $55 million per year. His annual contract value ties five other quarterbacks, including Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence, three of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL by EPA per play and success rate.

Baker Mayfield ranks 35th in both metrics with a -0.225 EPA per play and a 37% success rate, dead last among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. The Bucs quarterback is essentially the worst quarterback in the NFL in 2026.

Tampa Bay's offensive struggles are not entirely on Mayfield. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson installed a stale, unimaginative passing offense that doesn't tap into, let alone maximize, his players' strengths. A Mike Evans-sized hole remains in the Bucs receiver room—one they cannot fill, even collectively.

That is why the Bucs paid Mayfield. At $55 million a year, he was supposed to elevate the rest of the offense. It is not as if he even has to do that much lifting. The offensive line is healthy and back to being a top-five unit. The rushing attack carried the offense through dominant wins over Carolina and Atlanta, setting a two-game franchise record.

Instead, Mayfield drags the rest of the offense down. The Bucs are one of two teams in the NFL with a better rush EPA (-0.031) than pass EPA (-0.165). The other team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, have the best rushing attack in the NFL by EPA.

Even the Bucs' undrafted rookie, Jalon Daniels, has a case for being a better quarterback. He has a better EPA per play (-0.060) and success rate (41.2%). The Bucs have not won a game in which Mayfield attempted more than 11 passes. Daniels was instrumental to Tampa Bay's win over the Dallas Cowboys, completing 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown.

In every game where Mayfield played a bigger role than just handing off the football, he has turned the ball over at least once. His turnovers against Cincinnati and Chicago led to defensive scores that ultimately decided those one-score games.