The 2026 college football season hasn't gone according to plan for the Texas Longhorns, to say the least. Entering the year, they were national championship contenders, with a loaded roster headlined by quarterback Arch Manning.

Many believed he would be QB1 in the 2027 NFL Draft after dominant second full season as a starter, yet this year so far has been anything but. Entering Week 8, the Longhorns are ranked at No. 19 and sit at 4-2 after dropping two consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida — both of which came at least in part due to Manning's own issues.

Now, Texas is considering the unthinkable: benching the former five-star with the Hall of Fame legacy. It doesn't feel like an exaggeration to say that, if Manning doesn't deliver in a huge Saturday night clash with Ole Miss in Austin, the Horns will look to move on — and Arch's own career could get sent sideways.

Arch Manning may return to college football, just not at Texas

On Oct. 24, The Ringer and Netflix's Tom Pelissero reported that some NFL executives have some doubt this week about whether Manning and other projected top QBs will enter the 2027 Draft. NFL scouts have seen less of Manning since Texas closed its practices, and his game days haven't inspired a ton of confidence.

This comes on the heels of ESPN's Pete Thamel reporting that Texas gave redshirt freshman quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. more first-team snaps in practice. Thamel emphasized that head coach Steve Sarkisian doesn't want to bench Manning, but he's making sure his backup quarterback is ready in case Manning does struggle against Ole Miss.

The Longhorns don't have room for error going forward if they want to make the College Football Playoff, and they certainly need better production from the quarterback. In six games, Manning has completed 63.9 percent of his throws for 1,295 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions. Manning has three games with fewer than 200 passing yards, with an interception thrown in four different games.

In the loss to Florida, Manning didn't look to push the ball downfield at all. He consistently checked the ball down, as pointed out by FanSided's Josh Yourish. Per Yourish, Manning averaged three yards per completion, which included 31 air yards on the 62-yard completion to Emmett Mosley V. A whopping 10 of his 20 pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

That kind of production was nowhere near good enough, and with Sark already getting his backup plan acclimated, it seems like Manning's time in Austin could be coming to an end. Based on his play in 2026, he needs more time to develop, and returning to college next year is in the cards. But doing so with Texas could be in doubt.

There's a good chance Arch Manning transfers to new school

Manning has been with the Longhorns for four years and has been the starter for the past two. While he has certainly flashed big-time promise, there's reason to believe a change of scenery is needed.

Despite there being a ton of expectations upon his arrival in Austin, the Horns haven't been able to meet them. Last year, they didn't make the Playoff with Manning under center, and now, for the second straight year, things look murky.

Of course, things can still change, but Manning has to feel the pressure. Seeing Lacey Jr. get first-team reps couldn't have been the best feeling. Sark is making it known that if he plays badly, he could head to the bench.

It doesn't help that Sark said that Manning is "edgy" and needs to "fight back". For a player in Manning who needs more confidence put into him, that move doesn't look like it'll help in that regard.

If Manning decides to put his name in the portal, there will be plenty of schools lined up. Some possible options include Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Oregon, UCLA, Miami, Indiana, Kentucky, and LSU.

There would be more on that list, and with another year of eligibility left, Manning could look to head elsewhere. If he does get benched, these conversations will only grow louder. The remainder of this season will be huge, but as things stand currently, the odds continue to increase on Manning staying in college football, but it will be somewhere other than Texas.