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Broncos' Next Four Games Look Different Through Advanced Metrics

The analytics paint a picture of what the Broncos are actually facing over the next four games.

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 16: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) has a word with Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) after a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on November 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

The Denver Broncos sit at 5-2 after seven weeks and are one game out of first place in the AFC West. It hasn't been pretty, but the Broncos have found ways to win against some quality teams, even with key players out of the lineup.

How good are the Broncos, though? Is this a team that can make a deep playoff run like last season? And how good are Denver's next few opponents?

Let's look at what DVOA, the advanced metric devised by Aaron Schatz, has to say about the Broncos and their next four opponents. Opponent adjustments now account for 70% of a team's DVOA rating.

Where the Broncos Rank

Bo Nix celebrates with teammates. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Broncos rank 11th in overall DVOA at 12.2%. That would be the mark of a team described as "good but not great," which seems about right for where the Broncos are right now.

On offense, the Broncos rank 16th at -2.6%. "Below average" might be the best term to describe the offense, though the Broncos' offense showed signs of progress against the Arizona Cardinals this past week.

On defense, the Broncos rank fifth at -11.7% (again, DVOA is better for defense when it's negative). That's a sign of a quality defense, though not necessarily an elite defense.

On special teams, the Broncos rank sixth at 3%. On one hand, that's a sign of a solid special teams unit, though not an elite one. On the other hand, it's worth noting that only one team has a special teams DVOA of at least 10%, that being the Minnesota Vikings.

Broncos Next Four Opponents

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes survey's the Broncos' defense. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After seven games, the Chiefs sit eighth overall at 15.4%, fourth on offense at 18.7%, 14th on defense at -0.4%, and 29th on special teams at -3.8%.

The Chiefs have a quality offense, but their defense isn't a top unit, though it's solid. Special teams has been an issue, though, namely with kicker Harrison Butker's struggles.

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young drops back to pass. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After seven games, the Panthers rank 13th in overall DVOA at 7%, 12th on offense at 5.2%, 15th on defense at 0.3%, and 10th on special teams at 2.1%.

The Panthers are a solid overall team but their defense could be described as below average. While not a team to take lightly, the Panthers aren't as good as the Chiefs.

Las Vegas Raiders

Kirk Cousins uncorks a pass. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Raiders rank 27th in overall DVOA at -17.2%, 18th on offense at -3.8%, 28th on defense at 13.8%, and 15th on special teams at 0.3%.

This team has come back down to earth in recent weeks. While not a team to look past, it's worth noting how bad the Raiders' defense has been, meaning the offense won't have much excuse for not playing well against them.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers looks to make a pass. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Steelers rank ninth in overall defense at 9.2%, 13th on offense at 4.3%, seventh on defense at -11.7%, and 21st on special teams at -0.9%.

The Steelers are going to be a tougher opponent than some might have expected going into the season. It's a road game, the Steelers' defense is among the top units, and their offense has been solid.

The Takeaway

While the Broncos won't face as tough of a schedule in the next four games as they did in the first four weeks of the season, they don't necessarily have it easy. The Chiefs and Steelers are both quality teams and the Panthers have shown they can be a good team, too.

If the Broncos can go 3-1 in this stretch of four games, they will be in good shape. It will particularly help if the offense can play better in the next three games, when it will face defenses that don't rank in the top 10.

The good thing to see is that the Broncos' defense is coming around, even with key players out with injuries. The defense has been a big reason the Broncos are 5-2, though the hope is that the unit won't have to do as much of the work in the weeks to come.

We'll talk more about the rematch with the Chiefs later this week, but a win this Sunday at Mile High would do a lot to boost the Broncos' chances of winning the AFC West and making a deep playoff run.

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