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A Halloween Saturday causes yet more chaos in ESPN's FPI ratings. The ratings are endlessly controversial-- witness two-loss Ohio State dipping all the way to No. 2, while UCLA and Kentucky have a combined one loss and neither is in the top 25. But the stat-based formula tries to take an overall picture of college football and the picture from Week 9 was one with plenty of ups and downs. Here's the rundown of the biggest power conference jumps and dips from Week 9.
Off a tough loss to Minnesota, Iowa bounced back with an impressive 30-0 win over Wisconsin in a game that will likely see the Badgers fall out of the AP top 25 and Iowa jump back in. With two losses, Iowa has just an 11% shot at a College Football Playoff spot, but with the jump putting them up to sixth in the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes will doubtlessly nab a significant bowl berth.
While USC's 30-18 win over Ohio State dropped the Buckeyes a single spot, it jumped the Trojans up 10 spots. Fresh off a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin, USC's season looked to be in trouble, but the Trojans have an off week ahead of a visit to suddenly vulnerable Indiana. USC's Playoff hopes aren't great at 18.7%, but taking care of business against the Hoosiers and to end the regular season against UCLA could yet boost those hopes.
Washington outlasted Nebraska 17-10, and while the Huskies aren't heading to the Playoff, a fifth win did see their FPI odds of reaching six wins and bowl eligibility jump to 84.8%. The remaining slate does include hosting Indiana and visiting Oregon to end the regular season.
The ACC entry for this week isn't a proud one. There's losing and then there's falling to Duke 47-2, which is what happened to BC. They're 4-4 on the year, but with Notre Dame and Miami still ahead on the schedule, the Eagles have just an 11.4% shot at reaching six regular season wins and a bowl.
UCF can't even use Halloween as an excuse for a spooky 41-9 loss to Baylor, as the game was played on Friday. Still, it was quite a stumble off an upset of No. 2 BYU a week before. Nobody on the remaining slate for the 4-4 Golden Knights has a winning record, so UCF does retain a 74.1% shot at reaching six wins.
Arguably the disappointment of the SEC (hate to slight Texas A&M), the Sooners lost 42-25 at home to South Carolina. The Gamecocks moved up one spot, but the Sooners dipped 11. With three teams currently ranked ahead on the schedule (and Florida and Missouri on the road), even the 50.5% chance that FPI gives the 4-4 Sooners of reaching six wins might be optimistic.