The NBA regular season is about 4 percent over. That means we have 1,183 more games to play, an All-Star Weekend to ignore and an NBA Trade Deadline to shake everything up before the playoffs hit. We have the smallest of small samples in front of us but that doesn't mean we aren't seeing some signal in the noise.

These might feel like overreactions but they're feeling increasingly real.

The Timberwolves might not lose until after Thanksgiving

The Minnesota Timberwolves dropped their first game of the season in overtime to the Cleveland Cavaliers but had a half-dozen chances to create a different outcome — including a wide-open, game-tying 3-point attempt by Anthony Edwards on their final possession. Regardless, they are 3-1 and the vibes are IMMACULATE. It's not just that they're winning, it's the fact that they're having fun. The arrival of LaMelo Ball has brought offensive creativity and a joyous bounce. You can tell they love playing together and that kind of joy is an underrated variable that drives wins — and it could drive a lot more over the next month.

The Wolves have 15 more games before Thanksgiving and the schedule is an epic line-up of creampuffs. Next up is the injury-ravaged Warriors at home. They get the Bucks, the Pelicans, the Jazz, the Clippers, the Mavericks, the Nets. A pair of games, back-to-back and at home, against the Blazers. Of the next 15 games, just four are on the road and, on paper, these are the biggest challenges:

• @Spurs on Oct. 31
• @Rockets on Nov. 4
• vs. Knicks on Nov. 19
• vs. Grizzlies on Nov. 21
• @Thunder on Nov. 25

Assuming the Grizzlies are for real (they are) that's just five games in the next 15 where they won't be overwhelming favorites. The way they're playing right now, it would almost be a shock if they didn't run the table and sit down for a turkey dinner with a 18-1 record and the rest of the league in their rear-view mirror.

Giannis would have won more games staying in Milwaukee this season

Through three games, Giannis is averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists and the Miami Heat are a league-worst 0-4. They've lost to legit contenders like the Timberwolves and Pistons. They've also lost to theoretically lesser competition like the injury-ravaged Hornets and the Mavericks.

Bobby Portis, who came with Giannis in the trade from Milwaukee, is shooting 47.4 percent from beyond the arc but the rest of the team is shooting 28.3 percent on 3s. They're getting pounded on the glass, the defense is been horrendous, Klay Thompson looks fully washed and the 83-point man, Bam Adebayo, may need another four games to get to 83 points on the season.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are 1-3 with Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins and the assorted pieces they received in the Giannis trade. They have a better offensive rating than Miami, a better defensive rating and, frankly, look a lot more cohesive. The Bucks are definitely not making the playoffs but the way things are going the Heat might not either. And if Giannis was going to burn himself out just to try and fight through the Play-In he could have done it in Milwaukee without having to move his family or sell his house.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a playoff team

The Memphis Grizzlies haven't played the toughest competition yet — the Jazz twice, the Warriors and Kings. But they're 4-0 and looked head-and-shoulders better than any of the teams they've played so far. Cameron Boozer is still figuring things out at the offensive end but still had an enormously positive impact. Ty Jerome is averaging 29.8 points per game and playing like an MVP candidate. They have some youth, they have some depth and they have some swagger.

They're probably not going to camp out at the top of the Western Conference standings for the next few months but they've got a clear leg up on teams like the Jazz, Suns and Clippers. The Warriors are old, the Nuggets are down bad. The path is clear for the Grizzlies to make a run through the Play-In Tournament and nab a playoff spot waaaay before anyone was expecting it.

The Thunder "dynasty" is already over

Jalen Williams is likely done for the season. Cason Wallace may be as well. Alex Caruso just sprained his ankle and could be out for a bit. And so much of the depth that helped carry the Thunder the past two years — Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe — are playing elsewhere. Making a trade to shake things up is going to be difficult and they may already be underwater.

The problem is things don't get easier from a team-building perspective. They have young talent and a ton of draft picks but a loaded cap sheet as well. Next season, SGA, Chet Holmgren, Williams, Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Aday Mara will cost them about $226 million — over the first luxury tax threshold and just $10 million below the second. They're going to need some of those picks and cheap young talent to turn into contributors ASAP because they won't be able to afford to keep this core together much longer.

They got their title and it looked certain they would get at least one more in the next few years. Now, I'm not so sure.

The Knicks were a one-hit wonder

I don't think anyone really thought the Knicks were about to embark on a dynastic, multi-championship run but they way they've struggled so far this season emphasizes just how unlikely last season's title was. Remember, they were tied with the Lakers for the sixth-best record in the league and had just the fifth-best net rating. They were as close to league average as they were to the lofty heights of the Thunder.

They've started 0-3 and have been getting outscored by an average of 7.2 points per 100 possessions. The formula of stout defense, Jalen Brunson doing everything on offense and miraculous crunch time plays looks pretty fragile right now. Especially when Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart didn't get their extensions and James Dolan keeps finding new ways to ruin the vibes.

It really feels like this is the last season this core is together and that championship window has been closed completely.

Darius Acuff SMASHES Kobe's record for most missed shots in a season

Technically, Wilt Chamberlain owns the record for most missed field goals in a season with 1,562 back in 1961-62 — the same season he averaged 50.4 points and 25.7 rebounds per game. ut that was a different era of basketball and since the installment of the 3-point line, the record belongs to Kobe Bryant, who missed 1,195 shots — an average of 14.9 per game in 80 games played — during the 2005-06 season.

That record is about to fall.

So far this season, Kings rookie Darius Acuff Jr. has missed 49 shots in three games — an average of 16.3 per contest. He's shooting 32.9 percent from the field and astonishing 4-of-27 from beyond the arc, but there's no reason for him to stop putting shots up. The Kings' only other perimeter creator is Zach LaVine, who is sure to be traded or end up playing like 43 games. Domantas Sabonis is more facilitator than scorer and he's going to be traded before the season is over too.

This entire offense belongs to Acuff and the incentives (player development) dictate that he plays as much as possible and shoots as much as possible. His terrible numbers are not a great indicator of his talent but they're absolutely indicative of a rookie guard playing with a woeful supporting cast and almost all of the responsibility for shot creation. He may end up being a very good NBA player with a very good NBA career. But he's going to get off to an ignominious start.