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Mailbag: Is Men’s Tennis Due for a Resurgence After a Sleepy Season?

The sport missed the theatrics of the Jannik Sinner–Carlos Alcaraz rivalry in 2026, but the two are set to return after being sidelined by injury for much of last year. 

Jannik Sinner won Wimbledon, but has not played since July due to a knee injury. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Hey everyone …

• Here’s this week’s Served Podcast: 

• The Andy Roddick Foundation held its annual gala in Austin this week. Learn more here.

• In praise of Sorana Cîrstea:

• Harri Heliövaara of Finland and Henry Patten of Great Britain qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals in each of the past two seasons. Not only did they qualify for the season finale for the third time this year, but they are now guaranteed to top the year-end doubles team standings.

Onward …

Jon, It’s a year from now. What does the top 10 look like for both the ATP and WTA Tour?

Carlos L.

• I’m a sucker for these kinds of forecasting games. Aren’t we all? But tennis’s injury-o-rama really changes the exercise, no? In a sport where even the best—most conditioned and resourced—players struggle with their health, it’s hard to make predictions.

A year ago, you would have gotten funny looks if you had said, Never mind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev will finish 2026 at No.1. Then if you had explained the reasoning—Alcaraz and Sinner both missed meaty slabs of the season; played each other only once; were both in the draw at only one major—you’d say, Yeah, Zverev sounds about right.

Anyway, assuming full player health, let’s do the top five.

1) Jannik Sinner
2) Carlos Alcaraz
3) Ben Shelton
4) Arthur Fils
5) Alexander Zverev

An awful truth: Players seldom string together consecutive seasons of full health. It should go without saying that we never wish injury on an athlete. But, as a simple matter of probability, does Zverev really play a full season—roughly 90 matches in 2027—the year he turns 30? It will be interesting to see if Rafael Jódar continues his ascent or hits a sophomore slump. And which players—Holger Rune? Lorenzo Musetti? Taylor Fritz?—will benefit most from a full season of health.

As for the women?

1) Elena Rybakina
2) Coco Gauff
3) Aryna Sabalenka
4) Qinwen Zheng
5) A resurgent Iga Świątek

Again, there are a lot of variables—some of them health-related. (I write this after Rybakina, the No. 1 player in the world, showed up at Indian Wells and decided she couldn’t compete in the WTA Finals. I wonder about players like Victoria Mboko and Hailey Baptiste who have largely been sidelined in 2026.) Some of this is schedule-related. (Who plays where and when, and who decides that they won’t be boxed in by the onerous schedule.) Can players north of 30—Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina—stay in their spots? Can Sabalenka find her groove again?

It’s all fun. It’s all a reminder that the unscripted/unknown of sport is part of the appeal. But it also, sadly, underscores how injuries have infected the sport.

My most anticipated match for ATP Finals? First ever meeting between Alcaraz and Jódar. It will be a shame if we don’t get that after one of the most underwhelming years in men’s tennis history.

Bill T.

• I would take a repeat of Alcaraz and Shelton, given recent developments and a partiality to righty-lefty battles. But, sure, the ATP deserves some banger matches after this season. You could do worse than the two best Spanish players facing off for the first time.

And, yes, let’s address your larger point. Especially in recent weeks, a number of you have complained about 2026. “An awful year in men’s tennis,” as Ben Rothenberg called it. If we’re being objective—a persistent goal—we must concede: This has not been a banner year for men’s tennis. Put another, more charitable way: Years from now, this is unlikely to feature prominently in the ATP’s greatest hits documentary.

Top players were injured, and a No. 1 won only two events all season and struggled to beat top-10 opposition. (Yes, the titles were both majors and the math is the math, but still, that doesn’t connote a towering season at the top of the sport.) There were erratic results from so many players (Shelton, Fritz, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev at majors, and even Novak Djokovic) and strikingly few memorable off-court moments. Where was our Valentin Vacherot qualifying to win a Masters 1000? Our Djokovician 25th major? For that matter, a Nick Kyrgios outburst that would have at least enlivened conversation and goosed algorithms?

​Some of this is due to probability. Every year can’t be 2025, with the two brightest stars facing off in three major finals. Not every athlete stays healthy for the duration of their career. Not every No.1 has both the likability and bona fides of the Big Three/Alcaraz/Sinner. Not every match can be the 2025 Roland Garros final.

Speaking of the Big Three, after the end of their era, so many predicted an inevitable lull, a slow Sunday morning after a rollicking Saturday night. It didn’t happen, largely because of the immediate emergence of “Sincaraz.” Maybe 2026 was just a regression to the mean, the delayed post-Big-Three hangover.

Here’s the good news: Sinner and Alcaraz both appear ready for 2027. There is the obvious storyline of whether Zverev can hold the line now that the two previous top guys are back, and he’ll likely have to face them. There are new coaching arrangements and new players. Australia comes stuffed with possibility and intrigue. May that continue throughout 2027.

Novak Djokovic has praised Serbia's student opposition movement. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now that the winds of change have arrived in Serbia, do we expect Novak Djokovic to leave his current home in Greece? Also wonder if there is a political future in that country once he finally retires. 

Barbara, Lexington MA

• Full disclosure: I have tried to engage with Djokovic a bit on this and—totally his prerogative, and understandable—he doesn’t give up much. But it’s a fascinating story. 

Here’s the most popular athlete (person?) in the history of the country. He runs afoul of the strongman, Vladimir Putin-aligned leader, when he supports Serbia’s student protest movement that opposed the government. Djokovic left the country for Greece, a strange exile for someone of his national significance. When the strongman is voted out of office—owing in no small part to the students—gleeful Serbs are wearing Djokovic’s face on their T-shirts as they celebrate. Djokovic, too, noted the “sense of pride” that came with the election result.

It won’t count on his ATP stats, but Djokovic d. Aleksandar Vučić. And now the scene is set for a triumphant return home.

Hi Jon 

Re: Zheng Qinwen’s chances at getting back in the top 10. About 12 months ago you ran my letter celebrating Elena Rybakina’s resurgence (it’s my “drop shot her or lose” letter). So I claim expertise. I think Zheng gets into the top 10 and wins big tournaments IF during baseline rallies she stops trying the inside out backhand winner from the center of the court. She's fine on down-the-line backhand winners. When coaches and ex-coaches sit around talking shop do they bring up such things (if indeed it is a legitimate thing)? “If Player X had given up on such-and-such a shot he/she'd have won titles by the bushel”?

Best, Alistair W, Toronto

• Great question, thanks. Often, I feel as though these kinds of comments depend on the opponent and the match. This is strong analysis, but doesn’t, say, Zheng vs. Leylah Fernandez (a small lefty) demand a much different approach (no pun intended) than, say, Zheng vs. Rybakina? Stepping into the court to hit a backhand winner off Sabalenka’s righty pace is fundamentally different from doing so against Alexandra Eala.

And, of course, the tenor of the match has a bearing as well. Frances Tiafoe needs to attack more and rely less on defense. Generally sound analysis, except when he is winning on clay with patience; does he really need/want to go into dictation mode or shorten points?

HAVE A GOOD WEEK, EVERYONE!

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