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Predicting Jaylen Brown’s stat line and more for tonight’s Sixers-Celtics showdown

Jaylen Brown and Paul George face their former teams in an early season heavyweight fight.

Jaylen Brown - Philadelphia 76ers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Philadelphia 76ers host the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night at 8 pm E.T., in what is easily the most anticipated regular season matchup since opening night. It will be their first (real) meeting since Philly's raucous come-from-behind victory in the playoffs. It will also be Jaylen Brown's first time suiting up against old pal (or sworn enemy?) Jayson Tatum.

The Brown-Tatum drama has been cranked up to 11, with Brown especially keen on planting the seeds of discord. Clearly Brown did not appreciate how things ended in Boston, nor how he was treated relative to Tatum for all those years. He has already said Tatum should "stay ready at all times," so we can expect a few sparks to fly at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in South Philadelphia.

Sixers-Celtics starting lineups and defensive matchups

Jayson Tatum, Paul George - Boston Celtics | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sixers projected starting lineup

  • Tyrese Maxey
  • VJ Edgecombe
  • Jaylen Brown
  • LeBron James
  • Joel Embiid

There are no surprises here, barring any last-second injury news. Philadelphia has the most talented starting lineup in the NBA. The early returns have yielded great defense and tantalizing flashes of transition scoring, but the halfcourt offense is a slog. Joel Embiid looks completely out of sync, and it's clear Brown is still learning when to pick and choose his spots as Tyrese Maxey's co-star.

Celtics projected starting lineup

  • Derrick White
  • Jordan Walsh
  • Paul George
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Neemias Queta

Boston has mixed and matched its starting lineup all season. Mitchell Robinson was swapped out for Neemias Queta; Jordan Walsh has six starts on the wing, with Hugo Gonzalez starting thrice in his stead. In Sunday's win over Milwaukee, veteran point guard Mike Conley made his first start as a Celtic, but only played 10 minutes. Apparently it was Tatum and White who hand-picked Conley to start and delivered the edict to Joe Mazzulla. The point: we won't really know for certain how Boston plans to line 'em up until closer to tip-off.

Sixers defensive assignments

  • Tyrese Maxey → Derrick White
  • VJ Edgecombe → Paul George
  • Jaylen Brown → Jayson Tatum
  • LeBron James → Jordan Walsh
  • Joel Embiid → Neemias Queta

Both these teams will switch a ton and throw different looks at the opponent. I'd expect Jaylen Brown, arguably Philadelphia's best point-of-attack defender, to draw the Tatum matchup — for reasons both personal and practical. How well that goes will determine if Edgecombe or even LeBron get rotated into that mix eventually. Dean Wade will also get his share of Tatum reps off the bench. Assuming Brown is indeed granted the Tatum responsibility, it's fair to assume VJ Edgecombe will get to defend his old mentor Paul George. LeBron helping off of Walsh (or Gonzalez), the weak link, seems like the smart play.

Celtics defensive assignments

  • Derrick White → Tyrese Maxey
  • Jordan Walsh → LeBron James
  • Paul George → Jaylen Brown
  • Jayson Tatum → VJ Edgecombe
  • Neemias Queta → Joel Embiid

Boston probably hands Walsh the early minutes on LeBron, just to mitigate potential foul trouble for Jayson Tatum and Paul George. Edgecombe's spotty shooting could also empower Tatum's help-side defense, as he's sharp with his rotations and an active pickpocket. Paul George did a great job on Jaylen Brown in the playoffs, which Boston knows all too well. Flipping that matchup to their advantage — and pairing two sides of the same trade against each other — feels like the move. White is best-equipped to chase Tyrese Maxey around, but Walsh (or Gonzalez) could get some of those reps as well.

Sixers-Celtics predictions for Nov. 10

Jaylen Brown - Philadelphia 76ers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jaylen Brown's stat line

  • 28 PTS | 9-20 FG | 9 REB | 3 AST | 4 TOV | 3 STL | 1 BLK

This is a rough guestimate, certainly not anything to take to the bank. My expectation is that Brown very much wants to drop 50 on Boston's head, but he will also be conscious about his role in Philly's larger ecosystem. Brown has made a concerted effort to defer to Maxey all season, with LeBron and Embiid controlling a lot of halfcourt possessions, too.

The Sixers' best bet to win this game is for Brown to play within himself and not force the issue; too often these "revenge games" can turn into a disgruntled star shooting his new team out of a game. If Brown is feeling it, the Sixers will feed him early and often. But I'd expect Brown to put on a team-first attitude, as he has done since his arrival; that is its own kind of rebuke given how Boston fans framed his departure.

Paul George's stat line

  • 27 PTS | 10-16 FG | 7 REB | 5 AST | 4 TOV | 2 STL | 0 BLK

It feels almost too obvious for Paul George to subtly outperform Jaylen Brown, which would send the narrative threads spinning into oblivion. George has his own revenge plans, and the Sixers' defense has trouble with gifted movement shooters. Tatum will draw crowds and George will be the primary beneficiary, making ample contributions on the glass and as a defender, to boot. He will have moments where the lack of burst stands out against Brown and Edgecombe, two uber-athletic wings in their prime, but expect George to get hot from 3-point range and send a message.

Brown's ceiling for an individual performance is much higher, but George is currently in a much more natural role, in a much more proficient offense.

Who wins Sixers-Celtics on Nov. 10?

Paul George, Tyrese Maxey | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Final score: 116 BOS - 110 PHI

My money is probably on the Celtics. Both teams are red-hot to begin the year — Philadelphia at 9-2 and Boston at 8-2 — but the numbers under the hood favor Boston. The Celtics rank No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency; the Sixers rank No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 in defensive efficiency, by comparison.

The Celtics have a proven regular season formula, whereas the Sixers are very much in the "figuring it out" stage. Philadelphia has quality wins over Detroit, New York (twice) and Cleveland — a far better résumé overall than Boston — but the Celtics are, arguably, their toughest opponent yet. In a game with so many emotions and volatility baked in, it's smart to bet on the more cohesive unit.

That said, the Sixers still carry over advantages from their 3-1 comeback in the playoffs. Boston does not apply much pressure on the rim and the offense can hinge erratically on the jump-shooting of Jayson Tatum and Paul George. Boston's depth chart has more one-way players than you'd like; Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman and Payton Pritchard all feature significant weaknesses, which can be exploited by a team with Philadelphia's defensive intensity and mismatch-generating offense.

Philadelphia has also won more clutch games than any team so far this season. Ideally, the Sixers wouldn't need to win so many clutch games, but this team has consistently found a higher gear in the fourth quarter, forcing turnovers and running rampant in transition. Tyrese Maxey and Jayson Tatum might be co-leads in the Clutch Player of the Year race right now, so things could get fun down the stretch. VJ Edgecombe has torched Boston in the clutch before, too. LeBron James made half his career on demolishing the Celtics. There are a lot of fun wrinkles to this new-look rivalry matchup.

In the end, I'm picking Boston as the safe bet. We more or less know what to expect from the Celtics in terms of process on a nightly basis. Philly has the talent and the motivation to come in and shut me up real quick, though.

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