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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- After a frantic start to the week that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars make the biggest moves of this year's NFL Trade Deadline, it is worth remember that the Jaguars do, in fact, have an opponent on Sunday.
The 6-2 Jaguars are set to travel to Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, their first game since making blockbuster trades for Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis, along with adding Davon Godchaux for a sixth-round pick.
For a Jaguars team that has their eyes set on an AFC South title and a top seed in the playoffs, they are treating the Titans with the same seriousness that they treated the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens over the last two weeks.
So, how do we see the Jaguars' Week 10 battle with the Titans playing out? We break it down below.
While it certainly remains to be seen if the Jaguars will actually play any of their new defensive pieces against the Titans, I believe they will. Jakobi Meyers and Greg Newsome each played in their first games with the franchise last season after joining the team during that same week, and I think that means we see the trio make their Jaguars debuts. In the process, I think we see Bates create his first Jaguars takeaway right off the bat.
Cam Ward is far from the most turnover-prone quarterback the Jaguars have played this season; that distinction goes to Daniel Jones. But he is right near the league average in interception rate, and he has made some egregious decisions with the ball over his last two seasons as a starter. This feels like the perfect week for Anthony Campanile to cook some pressure looks up to confuse Ward, and Bates is a natural playmaker. I think we see his impact right away.
The Titans' defense has been ... not very good against slot receivers this season. The Titans rank in the bottom-5 in the NFL against slot targets in each of the following categories: yards per play allowed, yards after the catch allowed, yards after the catch over expectation, and average seperation. The Titans have simply been a mess in the slot, even moving long-time outside cornerback Alontae Taylor to the slot despite signing him in March to play on the outside.
As a result, I think this is a Parker Washington week. He is the clear No. 1 receiver in the offense, and I think he shakes off some inconsistent moments we have seen as of late and has a huge game against the Titans. Washington is due for a big performance, and I think we see it this Sunday against the Titans.
There have been 275 quarterback performances this season. In just 39 of those performances, we have seen quarterbacks throw for fewer than 150 yards. Cam Ward makes up two of those games, a number that is trumped only by Bo Nix and Malis Willis which is, well, not great company to be in as far as productive gunslingers go. Ward has been more productive and explosive as of late and is coming off one of the best games of his career, but I predict the Jaguars limit Ward to under 150.
Ward threw for just 141 yards against the Jaguars in Week 13 a year ago, and the Jaguars limited Daniel Jones and Joe Fagnano to a combined 189 yards over the last eight quarters. The Jaguars' pass defense is clicking, largely due to the work of defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, and I believe we see it continue this week.
Titans running back Tony Pollard has been on a tear over the last few weeks. Pollard, who has rushed for 246 yards and five touchdowns over the last two games, broke out of a mid-season skid and has been able to average over 4.0 yards per carry in every single game but two this season. While Pollard has been one of the NFL's more impressive runners over the last few weeks, I expect the Jaguars to be ready to bottle him up on Sunday.
Again, I think the Jaguars will play Davis and Godchaux on Sunday. But even if they don't, I do not think the Titans have the offense to keep the Jaguars off-balance enough to run the ball on them. Teams can only run the ball on the Jaguars when the Jaguars are threatened by the early-down pass, and I do not see the Titans having much success there.
The Jaguars have seen Walker Little play really, really well over the last few weeks since stepping into the lineup for an injured Anton Harrison. According to NextGenStats, Little has allowed pressure on just 6.4% of his pass blocks, the fifth lowest rate in the league among left tackles (minimum 100 pass blocks). On his 109 pass blocks, his 87.2% 1-on-1 matchup rate is the highest in the league among left tackles; his 6.3% 1-on-1 pressure rate allowed is the third lowest pressure rate allowed in the league.
“The experience always helps. Confidence is a heck of a thing, and I think he's the one that said it in an interview that humility helped. Where obviously he became our swing tackle, and all that guy has done is just stay the course," Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said on Wednesday. "Like, never got up, too down. He's just very steady. I really like Walker's play demeanor, the look in his eye recently and not taking everything so seriously. He's able to have fun with it. He's out there playing a game that he loves and competes with, but he's playing at a high level right now. He's got confidence, and you can tell.”
Little will mostly draw Titans pass-rusher Jacob Martin, who has had a good year. But after strong showings against the Houston Texans' pass-rush duo in London a month ago and then a dominant outing against Trey Hendrickson last week, I think Little has the edge entering Week 10. He is playing some of the best football of his career right now, and I predict it leads to another shutout.