We're only two weeks into the 2026-27 NBA season. It's still far too early to declare that any team will or won't make the playoffs. The league's nonstop barrage of early-season injuries has proved how quickly a team's outlook can change with one Shams tweet. (RIP to the Oklahoma City Thunder. We hardly knew ye.)

With that said, the bottom of the standings in both conferences are already playing out largely as expected. The Sacramento Kings and Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers are in the basement of the West, while the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks and rebuilding Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls are all tied for the worst record in the East.

The Kings secured their first win of the season over the Kyrie Irving-less Dallas Mavericks on Monday, so every team in the NBA already has at least one victory. Seven teams have only one victory, though.

In true sicko fashion, let's rank the probability of each of those teams moving past their slow starts and getting back into the playoff race.

7. Sacramento Kings (1-6)

Elon Musk has a better chance of designing a manned mission to Mars in the next few years than the Kings do of making the playoffs this season.

Tom Ziller of Good Morning It's Basketball, a long-tortured Kings devotee, went longer on the Kings on Monday than anyone in their right mind should. One particularly horrifying lowlight:

"The Kings have given up 120 points in every game, and 130 points in each of the last three games. Sacramento is No. 29 in defense (Phoenix is worse but has played two fewer games), and opponents are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 60% against them. 60%! (The Kings' offense is at 51%, for comparison's sake.)"

The Kings did hold the Mavericks to only 100 points on Monday night (#ZillerJinx?). Maxime Raynaud's eventual return from a knee injury might help them begin to resemble a professional basketball team again, too. But any team starting Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis is bound to bleed points.

A few other teams toward the bottom of the standings don't control their first-round pick in 2027, which means they have less incentive not to tank. (Sorry, the second-round reverse order does not count.) That might be the Kings' best hope to avoid the relegation zone in the NBA's new draft lottery.

6. Chicago Bulls (1-6)

Here's the good news for Chicago Bulls fans: Caleb Wilson looks like the real deal. Through his first seven games, the No. 4 overall pick is averaging 21.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.6 made 3s, 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Prett-ay, prett-ay good.

Here's the bad news: Just about everything else.

Matas Buzelis, who was arguably Chicago's biggest source of hope last year, has taken a clear step back thus far this season. Noa Essengue, whom the Bulls selected 12th overall in 2025, is averaging only 14.0 minutes per game while shooting 37.5 percent from the field. Josh Giddey is shooting even worse (36.9 percent).

The Bulls are currently 26th leaguewide in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They're getting outscored by 16.0 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark in the NBA. They eked out a win over the bottom-feeding Bucks and lost close games to the Washington Wizards and New York Knicks, but they've also been routed by the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.

Basketball-Reference already gives the Bulls only a 0.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Given the difficulty of their upcoming schedule, that might drop down to 0.0 percent by Thanksgiving.

5. Milwaukee Bucks (1-6)

The Milwaukee Bucks have their own share of blowout losses, although they've been slightly more competitive than the Bulls in the early going.

Tyler Herro is no Greek Freak, but he's averaging 21.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in only 30.3 minutes per game while shooting 45.9 percent overall and 43.1 percent from deep. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game) and Kel'el Ware (11.4 points and 8.7 rebounds in only 19.3 minutes per game) have also been welcome additions to Milwaukee.

Myles Turner has been a massive disappointment, and it may only be a matter of time before Ware supplants him in the starting lineup. Ryan Rollins also hasn't been able to build on his breakout 2025-26 campaign yet, as he's shooting only 34.5 percent from the field. But the Bucks' late-lottery picks, Brayden Burries and Nate Ament, have each shown at least promising flashes thus far.

The Bucks don't control their 2027 first-round pick, so they have less incentive to avoid the relegation zone in the draft lottery as most other teams. That could cause them to turn into sellers at the trade deadline, particularly if it's a relatively sparse seller's market because of the new lottery system. That wouldn't bode well for their playoff odds, though.

4. Brooklyn Nets (1-6)

The Brooklyn Nets land here almost by default. They've put real scares into the Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers and in the first two weeks of the season, and they had a close loss to the Charlotte Hornets in the season opener as well.

Julius Randle is putting up his typical per-game numbers (20.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists), albeit on dismal efficiency (41.5 percent overall, 32.4 percent from deep). Michael Porter Jr. is knocking down 3.4 triples per game at a 38.1 percent clip, although his overall production has taken a slight step back with Randle now in the fold.

The results are more mixed from the Nets' young players. Nolan Traoré has been on fire in the early going (47.5 percent overall, 50.0 percent from deep). Egor Dëmin (31.0 percent overall) and Mikel Brown Jr. (29.8% overall)? Not so much.

The Nets should spend this season experimenting with those young pieces since the Houston Rockets have the right to swap first-round picks with them next summer anyway. But the presence of veterans such as Randle, Porter and Moe Wagner should help prevent them from being a total doormat most nights.  

3. L.A. Clippers (1-6)

Based on what the Los Angeles Clippers have showed in the early going, having them this high might seem like lunacy. After all, they allowed the Toronto Raptors to outscore them 47-27 in the fourth quarter on Monday night in what wound up being a seven-point loss.

However, Brandon Ingram has yet to make his season debut as he works his way back from a partial Achilles tear. The Clippers recalled him from a G League assignment on Sunday, which perhaps suggests that his return is nigh. That will help reduce the Clippers' reliance on Darius Garland and rookie Keaton Wagler to manufacture offense.

Rui Hachimura, whom the Clippers signed with most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception this past offseason, is somehow shooting better from three-point range (38.7 percent) than from inside the arc (35.3 percent). Max Strus missed the Clippers' first six games with a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his right foot, but he debuted Monday against the Raptors and knocked down three triples.

As the Clippers get closer to full strength, they should begin to finish out some of the close games they've found themselves in early on. That might not be enough to earn them a playoff berth, but they aren't quite as bad as they've looked thus far.

2. Phoenix Suns (1-4)

The Phoenix Suns have played an NBA-low five games thus far, so they aren't in quite as deep of a hole as the other teams featured here. They've also lost close games to the Oklahoma City Thunder (125-114), Denver Nuggets (127-120) and Golden State Warriors (116-113), so they aren't necessarily far off from making real noise.

However, that might require at least one change to their starting lineup. Thus far, they've rolled with a starting five of Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges and Khaman Maluach, but that group has been outscored by nearly 30 points per 100 possessions across 60 minutes.

Green is shooting only 41.8 percent overall and 22.2 percent from long distance, so he'd be the easiest starter to push to the bench into a super-sub role. If the Suns wanted more of a true point guard in their starting lineup to allow Booker to operate off the ball more frequently, they could turn to either Collin Gillespie or Jordan Goodwin.

However, the Suns aren't going anywhere near the playoff race until they fix their league-worst defense. Their offense sits just outside of the top 10 leaguewide, but they're 25th in net rating because their defense has been such an abomination thus far.

1. Utah Jazz (1-6)

The Utah Jazz were a trendy sleeper among basketball nerds this past offseason (myself very much included). It didn't take long for alarms to sound on that pick.

A 20-point opening-night loss to the Memphis Grizzlies looks better in retrospect now that the Grizzlies appear to be ahead of schedule. There's little shame in close losses to the Los Angeles Lakers or San Antonio Spurs, either. However, the Jazz have been pasted by the Portland Trail Blazers and the Spurs over their past two games, both of which came without Jaren Jackson Jr.

JJJ suffered a torn MCL toward the end of October and is now expected to miss 6-8 weeks, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon and Shams Charania. A foot injury has prevented Jusuf Nurkić from suiting up yet this season, too. Once the Jazz are back to full strength, they could have a late-season surge that pushes them back into the playoff race.

That is, of course, assuming they haven't dug themselves too deep of a hole until JJJ's return. There's no guarantee of that, particularly since they currently boast the league's fourth-worst net rating.