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FOXBORO -- This should have been A.J. Brown's week. With a nice long break between games, going against the league's worst pass defense, it felt like a matchup with the Dolphins was just what the doctor ordered for the No. 1 receiver.
Now he's questionable with a knee injury after having played 101 combined snaps against the Jets and Bears in the span of five days.
How, then, might the Patriots try to squeeze every last drop of productivity out of an offense that might not only be missing Brown but also will be without fellow offensive starters Alijah Vera-Tucker (injured reserve, hamstring) and Romeo Doubs (injured reserve, shoulder)?
They could continue to look to give themselves more opportunities at extending drives by going for it on fourth down. Though they've been unsuccessful in recent weeks when dropping back to throw in those situations -- fourth-down pass calls led to an incompletion to Brown against the Jets and a sack against the Bears -- coach Mike Vrabel made it clear this week he's still interested in pushing the fourth-down envelope.
"We try to be aggressive," Vrabel said when asked about the fourth-down try which came early in a scoreless game in Chicago.
"It's something that we felt like we want to continue to do. We would've liked to have better execution, but we've had a lot of success doing that. I don't want to be a results-based analytics person here and say, 'We didn't get it, so we shouldn't have gone for it.'
"We've had a lot of success with that. That's something that we feel like when we can work our way across midfield, once we're in that area, if there's things that we like, we've done well there. I was disappointed that we weren't able to get it, but I would imagine we'll still try to continue to do it."
Some of the numbers would back up Vrabel's approach there. The Patriots are sixth in success rate on fourth down, converting on almost 73 percent of their attempts. They're also fourth in EPA per play on fourth down, meaning they've given themselves real opportunities at points by going for it when they have.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels explained that part of the reason the team has been confident in those moments is that they have a group of players that seems to thrive in those gotta-have-it moments.
"I think your mindset is part of it, and the desire to go out there and stay out there on the field," McDaniels said. "I think you saw some of our players do that the other night. If you didn't, you will now. Just basically saying, 'Get back in the huddle.' We didn't get it on third down, and they're saying, 'Get back in the huddle. We don't want to go off the field.'
"I think that is a huge confidence builder if you're a coach and you're seeing your guys say, 'Hey, hold on, we'll stay out here and get it. I think that's a big part of it."
To go for it or not to go for it conversations pop up on a weekly basis. Just last weekend, Dan Campbell had the football-watching world talking about his aggressive approach yet again when he opted to go for it on fourth down in a tied game deep in his own territory with less than five minutes remaining.
But as teams -- not to mention ownership groups and fan bases -- have become more comfortable with the idea of going for it on fourth down, it's less surprising to see a team like New England take an aggressive mindset on a weekly basis.
The thinking seems to be this: Until we prove we can't do it, we're going to try.
"I think the fact that in today's NFL that you may have more opportunities to [go for it] has changed some of the thinking," McDaniels said. "I remember 10 years ago when somebody would go for it on fourth down, there's this big gasp in the stadium, 'Oh my God.' Now, it's almost expected. If you don't go for it, there's a big gasp.
"I think your whole mindset, your preparation, what you do on third down, if you have a chance for fourth down, is something that can play into your success on fourth down."
The Patriots (4-3) may not need to go for it much on fourth down against the bottom-dwelling Dolphins (1-5), but don't be stunned if they maintain that portion of their identity in Miami Gardens this weekend.
Here are some of the other key areas of the matchup to keep an eye on as Vrabel's club makes its way to a stadium that has historically given them some problems...
Drake Maye vs. Jeff Hafley
The Patriots have arguably the league's best quarterback over the course of the last four weeks. He's first in EPA per play, second in success rate and second in completion rate over expected in that span... and he's done it all without putting the football in harm's way.
Maye's turnover-worthy play percentage, per Pro Football Focus, is just 1.2, which is fourth-best in the NFL. The only qualifying quarterback ahead of him with an average depth of target more than 8.0 yards is Joe Burrow (8.8).; Maye's ADOT, meanwhile, is 10.6 in that time.
Facing a quarterback who can push the ball down the field while also keeping it away from defenders, the Dolphins should continue to struggle. They're last in the NFL in EPA per pass (0.28), last in sacks (6) and second-to-last in sack rate (3.2).
Even if Brown can't play, Maye should have plenty of opportunities to carve up a defense that has been carved over and over again through six games.
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Hunter Henry vs. Dolphins secondary
If the Patriots are short on receivers and opt to play more tight ends, that decision could pay real dividends this week. The Dolphins are last in the NFL in completion percentage allowed to tight ends (91.7), last in yards per attempt to tight ends (9.4), last in quarterback rating allowed on tight end targets (136.7) and last in EPA per play allowed on tight end receptions (0.68).
Both Hunter Henry (19 catches for 225 yards and two scores in the last four weeks) and rookie Eli Raridon could end up providing some explosive results in this particular matchup.
Patriots tacklers vs. Ollie Gordon II
The Dolphins have a running game -- which includes athletic quarterback Malik Willis -- that could pose problems for a defense that has had its share of issues tackling the last couple of weeks. Gordon is a 6-foot-2, 225-pound back who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, which is good enough for eight-best out of 35 qualifying backs. He also averages 0.7 rush yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats, which slots him ninth among qualifiers. Additionally, his hard-charging style has earned him 3.9 yards after contact per attempt, which is fourth-best among qualifiers.
For a Patriots defense that has missed 25 tackles in Weeks 6 and 7 combined, wrapping up Gordon and getting him on the ground has to be one of their keys to victory.
Zak Kuhr vs. Malik Willis
The Patriots know it. Their opponents know it. They are a man-heavy defense. That's the style of play their secondary prefers, and it's where they excel. According to Sumer Sports, they play man-to-man coverages at the second-highest rate in the NFL. And when they do, they excel, checking in at sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
But do they want to play a ton of man-to-man coverage against a quarterback they know is a threat to break the pocket and run? In man, with their defenders' backs turned to Malik Willis, the Patriots could leave themselves exposed to allow a big play or two. Willis averages 6.4 yards per carry, and he's second (behind only Buffalo's Josh Allen) in rush EPA among quarterbacks (18.3).
Playing more zone would make sense for Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr, but his players have had their share of issues in coverage when asked to zone things off. They have the league's worst quarterback rating allowed when in zone, per SIS, at 112.2. Their completion percentage allowed in zone (76.4) is 31st in the NFL, and they're giving up the seventh-worst EPA per play while in zone coverage.
Miami doesn't have the weapons to really bludgeon the Patriots if they opt to keep their eyes on the quarterback and play zone coverage. But their struggles in zone, combined with Willis' rushing ability, could end up making this a closer game than many anticipate.