Speaking after announcing the Test squad to go to South Africa next month, North said that England are “still invested” in Bashir. Literally speaking, England are very much invested in Bashir, having included him on their central contract list for the next year. Bashir and Rehan Ahmed are the only two spinners to earn full central contracts, and yet neither of them are in the Test squad to face South Africa. While Bashir is in the Lions red-ball squad set to play the West Indies, Rehan has slipped further off the Test radar.

Instead, England have called up uncapped left-armer Liam Patterson-White for the South Africa series. Patterson-White was included on England’s development contract list for the 2026/27 season, and took 42 wickets at 25 for Nottinghamshire in the County Championship this year.

“Shoaib is still a very young man. He’s someone that we still have a very positive outlook about,” said North. “It’s just that we have sat down looking at each Test series in isolation, and we feel that Liam gives us that best balance as that spinner for this tour of South Africa.”

That balance point is slightly more worrying for Bashir’s future in the side than it was over the summer. Bashir has been out of favour since Ben Stokes retired earlier this summer because of the balance problem. Without a seamer who can bat in the top six, picking a spinner would require one of the four specialists to drop out of the XI. In that scenario, that specialist spinner would have to take on a significant workload. Instead, England chose to pick Dan Lawrence to bat in the middle order and share spin duties with Joe Root, as well as Jacob Bethell when he comes back from injury.

Patterson-White is more capable with the bat than Bashir. He scored an unbeaten century for Nottinghamshire in September, his third first-class hundred. Nevertheless, the highest he would likely bat for England is No.8, meaning that if he were to play, they would still have to drop one of their preferred four-pronged pace attack.

By selecting Patterson-White, England have acknowledged the possibility of fielding a three-man pace attack alongside a spinner. While Patterson-White’s ability with the bat bolsters his selection, he’s not a true allrounder, and that will be what hurts Bashir the most. As England’s first-choice spinner, even limited potential for lower order runs is enough to push those below him to the top.

Not picking Bashir as a specialist now is different than when England dropped him against Pakistan over the summer. Conditions and the dismal state of Pakistan as an opposition meant that a full-time spinner wasn’t required, and even when Bashir did play against New Zealand earlier in the summer, he didn’t bowl in the first Test at Lord’s. However, in South Africa, off the back of Simon Harmer’s match-winning spell against Australia in Cape Town, a specialist spinner should come more into contention.

This is the second time in the last 12 months that England have outwardly lost faith that Bashir’s returns with the ball are worth fitting him in. Having gone into the Ashes last winter as England’s first-choice spinner, a collapsing batting unit meant selecting Bashir wasn’t worth the sacrifice, and Will Jacks was hastily called-upon to bat at No.8 while Stokes completed a four-man pace attack. Now Stokes isn’t in the side, the bar for Bashir to be picked has been raised even higher.

The complexity to all of this is the central contract Bashir was given last month. By keeping Bashir in the Lions red-ball squad, England clearly want to keep Bashir around. A Test series in Bangladesh later this winter might bring more flexibility to bring him back into the Test squad. That balance question could also shift fairly quickly. Sam Curran wasn’t available for selection for this series due to the timing of his wedding. There’s a scenario later down the line which could see Curran handed a Test recall as a fourth seam option who bats in the top six. That would re-focus the spin selection question on bowling, rather than how many lower-order runs could be added.

Nevertheless, Bashir finds himself in the same situation he’s been in for the last year. Playing a waiting game.