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West Ham 3-0 Southampton? Why expert is predicting another big Hammers win
West Ham United's Jarrod Bowen - Millwall v West Ham United - Sky Bet Championship 2026/27
Photo by Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images

It would be oh-so very West Ham United to follow up an imperious away win at the Championship leaders, only to take one almighty stumble in the wrong direction at the London Stadium seven days later.

Then again, it is the nature of a football fan – especially those as acquainted with disappointment as we are – to expect the worst.

This West Ham United side might just be made of sterner stuff, though. The always-excellent, uber-informative guys at Not the Top 20 certainly think so, even if co-host Ali Maxwell picked Swansea to claim all three points last weekend in South Wales. A victory which massively strengthened his belief in the team currently sitting a point off the summit.

TalkingPoints

Nuno has some big decisions to make vs Southampton! Who would you pick, and why? 👇

Ali Maxwell backs West Ham United to follow up Swansea win against Southampton

Mohamadou Kante scored and Max Kilman shone. West Ham won away at a team at the top for the first time since Slaven Bilic masterminded a 2-1 victory at Manchester City in 2015.

As the Hammers look to climb above Swansea and back into pole position, Maxwell is predicting an exciting encounter, plenty of chances, and ultimately a home win. A potentially emphatic one.

“I’m choosing West Ham against Southampton,” Maxwell says on the latest edition of the Not the Top 20 podcast. “It’s a massive game between two of the best teams in the league. Two good teams, two teams that score a lot of goals. Quite exciting.”

West Ham are comfortably the Championship’s top scorers. In fact, should they maintain a staggering record of 30 goals in 11 games, they will arrive at a record-breaking 125 at the end of May. Southampton have the third-most goals with 21, though their record away from home leaves a lot to be desired.

The Saints have one away win in five attempts, and only five goals on their travels. In contrast, West Ham average three goals per game at the London Stadium.

“West Ham have huge dominance [in home games],” Maxwell adds, putting aside the recent slugfest against QPR. “Maybe they haven’t been perfect in the details in general, but mostly they have been pretty dominant.

“I think Southampton will be happy to let them have [the ball], sit back, and try to find space on the break where they can be dangerous. [West Ham and Southampton are] almost identical for open-play xG, so broadly creating the same amount, but West Ham are much stronger from set pieces, and that’s why Konstantinos Mavropanos has five goals in 10 games this season.

“West Ham are also much more reliable when it comes to keeping the opposition at bay – just a better defensive team. Saints’ defence at times this season has been very leaky, and they do put a lot of pressure on their keeper.”

Jarrod Bowen to score and Konstantinos Mavropanos to wreak havoc

Southampton average the fewest tackles in the whole division. A problem that may be exacerbated by the potential absence of former Hammers benchwarmer Flynn Downes. Top scorer Cyle Larin is a doubt too against a West Ham side coming off the back of their best defensive performance since March’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City.

Southampton have also conceded six of their ten goals from crosses or dead-balls. And West Ham have Europe’s most prolific centre-back in Konstantinos Mavropanos in their armoury, not to mention a newly-fit Tomas Soucek.

Maxwell believes the ‘set-piece battle will be huge’, pitting Mavropanos against another giant of a man in Keven Schlotterbeck. He can also see Fin Azaz, the mercurial playmaker who spoke so confidently in the week, causing problems on the break with his expert line-breaking.

Overall, though, West Ham’s set-piece threat, their formidable home record, and their quality on the bench has Maxwell leaning towards a home win. A pretty sizeable one possibly, Nuno’s title-chasers backed to rack up three or more goals in the process.

“I just think it’s going to be an open, attacking Championship game. I personally don’t think Southampton are going to be able to keep West Ham at bay here. And as we’ve seen, West Ham, when they grow in confidence within a game, can really rack up the goals. So West Ham and over 3.5 goals is where I’m leaning.

“Not one to overthink, is it [about the most likely goalscorer]? Jarrod Bowen has scored in six of his 12 starts in all competitions this season, takes 3.8 shots per game in the league, is an incredible finisher, and I think will have plenty of opportunities to shoot.”

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