Chaos continues to follow Manchester United everywhere they go in the 2026-27 season, and the final Premier League game before the November international break was no different.

Despite falling 2-0 and 4-2 down to Champions League-competing Aston Villa, the Red Devils produced two magnificent turnarounds to draw 4-4 at Old Trafford, extending their unbeaten run to two games after an equally absorbing 3-2 Champions League success over Roma.

However, Man United will nevertheless spend the next couple of weeks in the bottom three of the Premier League table, and their precarious position has done little to quieten the noise around Michael Carrick's future.

The Man Utd hierarchy will supposedly make a decision on the Englishman's tenure during a meeting in Monaco on Wednesday, but is he statistically the favourite to be given the boot out of all 20 top-flight head coaches?

Here, Sports Mole looks at which Premier League manager is most likely to be the next to lose their job.

Next Premier League manager sacked: Michael Carrick marginally ahead of Pierre Sage

According to the data, Carrick is the favourite to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked, as he is given a 75% chance of losing his job by our statistical model.

Each manager is scored out of six categories - pre-season objective, points per game, win rate, recent form, European campaign and ownership firing habit - to conjure up a total dismissal probability, and it is little surprise to see Carrick so high up.

The Man Utd manager would have been tasked with back-to-back Champions League qualifications after last season's success, but his troops are instead languishing in the relegation zone with just one win from 10 Premier League matches.

Carrick's points-per-game total of 0.80 is also significantly lower than the desired 1.84 for the Red Devils, who have also not shied away from mid-season managerial changes, getting rid of Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim with the campaign in full swing.

Just below Carrick sits under-fire Crystal Palace boss Pierre Sage, who is 72% likely to be fired by the Selhurst Park board as the Eagles sit rock bottom of the Premier League rankings.

The Frenchman's only real saving grace so far is Palace's European campaign, as the Eagles have made a respectable start to the Europa League season, suffering just one defeat from their opening four games.

Sunderland head coach Regis Le Bris, meanwhile, lies third in the list in the 'at risk' section, as does Newcastle United's Matthias Jaissle, who has failed to build on early promise in charge of the Magpies.

Aston Villa's Unai Emery, Chelsea's Xabi Alonso and Fulham's Alvaro Arbeloa also have a minor element of doubt attached to them, but every other head coach in the Premier League is safe from the sack.

Right at the bottom, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta - who has just signed a new contract - is given a 0% chance of being dismissed, closely followed by Fabian Hurzeler's 3% at Brighton & Hove Albion.