Missouri visits No. 1 Georgia for the Bulldogs’ final SEC home game, and college football analyst Josh Pate expects the Tigers to hang around longer than the spread suggests before Georgia pulls away in the second half.

“I’m going to take Georgia to win and cover the game,” Pate said on Tuesday night’s edition of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. His model makes Georgia a 15-point favorite, nearly identical to the betting line.

Why is Pate picking Georgia?

Georgia (8-1, 6-1 SEC) climbed back to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 after a 42-7 rout of Ole Miss in Oxford. Pate doesn’t expect a letdown, because Smart has plenty of experience keeping a team focused after a big win.

“Kirby’s been around this block plenty of times to understand, like that famous quote of his, humility is just a week away,” Pate said.

History favors the Bulldogs, too. Smart is 8-0 against Missouri, including a 30-21 home win in the last meeting in 2023.

Still, Pate cautioned against reading too much into the Ole Miss score. Georgia lost 27-24 at home to Auburn last month and needed a field goal to escape Alabama 20-17.

“I promise you the margins aren’t that big in the sport right now,” Pate said.

Missouri’s path to an upset

Pate’s case for Missouri (6-3, 3-3 SEC) starts with Jamal Roberts, the SEC’s leading rusher. The Tigers are 5-0 against FBS opponents when Roberts tops 100 yards and 0-3 when he doesn’t.

“They’ve got to have Jamal Roberts have a really good day on the ground,” Pate said.

Roberts ran for 222 yards against Texas A&M in October. But Texas held him to 66 yards on 19 carries Saturday, when the Longhorns scored three unanswered second-half touchdowns to win 34-20 in Columbia. Pate expects Roberts to need a few explosive runs rather than steady gains, which is a problem: Missouri ranks 126th nationally in rushing success rate.

Pate also wants Missouri to force Georgia into throwing, though he noted Gunner Stockton can win that way too. Stockton has thrown 18 touchdown passes this season.

“They can just beat you with Gunner Stockton throwing the ball,” Pate said. “At least if Gunner Stockton has to put the ball in the air, maybe I can affect him.”

Smart said Missouri has “one of the most disruptive fronts in the league.” That front will be without defensive lineman Langden Kitchen, who is out for the season after knee surgery.

What does Pate expect Saturday?

Pate doesn’t see an early runaway. Instead, he expects a close game into the second half before Georgia’s depth takes over.

“It could go from a really, really tightly contested game to 31-14 or something like that,” Pate said. “It ends up where you’re saying, ‘Man, they had a fight on their hands, and they still found a way to cover that number.’”

To avoid that outcome, he said, Missouri needs something to go its way early, whether a special teams play, a turnover or better offensive rhythm than expected. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz addressed the officiating complaints from the Texas loss on Tuesday. He said, “I refuse to give in to being a victim mentality.”

Missouri visits Georgia on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.