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The NBA's "unprecedented" injury crisis to start the season has everyone searching for answers, even though it's obvious: Shorten the season and/or the games themselves. FIBA games last 40 minutes, not 48, and the pace at which these players are asked to play and the ground they have to cover in a way more spaced-out game, to say nothing of the force they're creating as bigger and more powerful athletes than the league has ever seen, is going to continue breeding injuries.
We'll see what, if anything, the NBA decides to do about it. My guess is the almighty dollar will continue to win. The league wants as many games as possible for maximum revenue -- both in-arena and through TV contracts -- and if the players have to drop their salaries for playing fewer games, well, it's hard to see that happening either.
And so we're left to deal with a league that is quickly being defined as much by the players who aren't playing as those who are. It sucks. No other way to put it. And it's having a major impact on the competitive landscape -- which is what we're here to look at in this article.
Below I have ranked the 10 most significant injuries this season in terms of how much impact they will have on the postseason seeding race. I'm not going to look ahead to how it might affect the playoffs as an extension of that, because the playoffs are a different beast where matchups are paramount. We will look at the postseason health status of the relevant teams as we get closer to that point.
But as seeding races go, what's happening right now is just as important as what happens later in the season. The games all count the same.
This is all subject to change as more injuries, unfortunately, are likely to arise, and timetables could be extended for those teams are already dealing with. But given the information we have at this moment, and with as realistic a projection as possible, here's where I come out on the injury-impact rankings.
*NOTE: I have not included any of the injuries that existed prior to the season starting. We knew about those and accounted for them in our season outlooks. So no Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Kon Kneuppel, Coby White (who's expected back Monday night) or Brandon Ingram, among others.
Jalen Williams' injury is obviously worse, but in terms of impact on their respective teams, Minnesota is facing a bigger uphill challenge without Edwards through Christmas than the Thunder are without Williams for the whole season. Edwards was off to a torrid start, averaging 33.3 points and leading the league in 3-pointers at the time of injury.
Edwards and LaMelo Ball were seriously vibing, but Edwards' absence exacerbates Ball's inefficiency and puts a lot more on his shoulders as a scorer. So far, he hasn't been up to the task. In his first game without Edwards, Ball had eight points on 3-of-11 shooting in a loss to the Warriors. On Saturday, he had 10 points on 2-of-10 shooting in a loss to San Antonio.
For the season, Ball is averaging just north of 14 points and six assists, far cries from his typical production. He's shooting 39% overall. He's 9 for his last 32 from 3. Chris Finch says his point guard is getting "fouled all over the floor," but that's a desperate plea by a coach who knows his team could be in a serious hole by the time Edwards gets back if Ball doesn't pick it up significantly, to say nothing of the possibility that this knee issue continues to bother Edwards even after his return.
Unlike the situation with Williams in Oklahoma City, where they at least have a viable offensive replacement in Ajay Mitchell, there is nobody in Minnesota who can provide anything close to Ant's MVP-level production, and two months is a hell of a long time in this Western Conference. The Wolves started out 3-1 with Edwards. They're 1-2 so far without him.
How is a season-ending injury as gruesome as this one not No. 1 on a list like this? Because Williams played in just 33 games last season and the Thunder still won 64. They went 39-10 without Williams in the regular season and 8-2 in the playoffs.
Yes, the Thunder were much deeper on the wing last year. They lost Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe this summer, and now Cason Wallace is probably going to miss at least the rest of the regular season, too. But they still have Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain to cover for Williams offensively and Alex Caruso (when he gets back from his sprained ankle) on defense. It's not optimal, obviously, but having the back-to-back MVP gives OKC a lot of leeway.
Holmgren being out 8-10 weeks is actually what tips this Thunder boat on its side, but given that it's not season-ending, there's at least a light at the end of the tunnel. Williams almost certainly isn't coming back this year, and you have to at least wonder if he'll ever be the same moving forward with his career. This is the same injury Gordon Hayward suffered, and though Williams is younger, Hayward was an All-NBA level player at the time and was never close to the same again; he managed just 318 more career games before calling it quits.
If Wallace were healthy, the Williams injury, awful as it is, wouldn't have been quite as significant, and if Williams hadn't gone down, Wallace's absence wouldn't have hit quite as hard. But these two blows coming at the same time makes both of them exponentially worse.
Williams is a better player than Wallace and is almost certainly done for the season, whereas Wallace could at least come back for the playoffs. Even with all these injuries, it's still hard to imagine the Thunder not making postseason play as long as nobody else goes down for any significant amount of time. But their injury margin officially shrinks to zero from this point on.
As stated above, this is the one that tips the Oklahoma City boat on its side. You could make a case that it's actually the worst of the OKC blows, and if Wallace were still around to help OKC cover for Williams by committee, I would have it ranked that way.
But OKC losing three rotation wings from last year's roster is too much to absorb Williams and Wallace together. Holmgren is at least going to be back, hopefully, by Christmas or shortly after. Until then, Isaiah Hartenstein and rookie Aday Mara need to hold down the fort, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could well end up with his third straight MVP if he keeps OKC afloat during this extended stretch.
That said, it's not going great so far. The Thunder have lost their last two games to Dallas and Houston by a combined 45 points. If the basketball gods have any mercy, they will at least get Alex Caruso (sprained ankle) back in OKC's rotation in short order.
This was originally positioned as a one-week thing. Now we're being told it will be mid-to-late November before the swelling is even expected to be reduced enough to actually assess the situation.
"It's a little bit longer than what people were expecting or hoping," Chris Haynes reported on Oct. 29. "What I'm told is that they have to wait until the inflammation is limited, and then at that point, at the end of that three-to-four-week window, they will assess where to go from there. ... So, a three-to-four-week timetable is what I'm hearing."
Before that update, I was going to force myself to be positive about this one. I told myself, one, it's not the same knee in which Leonard has torn his ACL and MCL, and two, although he did deal with swelling in this left knee last season, it only kept him out a week and he wound up playing 65 games at an MVP level.
I should've known it was too good to be true. If this thing lingers any longer than three to four weeks (which, let's be honest, it's probably going to), Toronto might be able to scrape its way through the regular season, but the expectations of a high seed leading to true championship contention would be out the window. To say Toronto is crossing its organizational fingers is an understatement.
I have this one higher than other injuries that involve longer return timelines for three reasons. First, hamstrings tend to linger, and with Haliburton already coming off a full-year absence from a torn Achilles, Indiana is likely going to play it as safe as possible. This could end up being longer than a few weeks and, as all hamstrings are, it will be a threat to resurface all year.
Second, few teams are as dependent on their star player as the Pacers are on Haliburton, who makes the whole thing go. I'm as big an Andrew Nembhard fan as anyone, but the Pacers with and without Haliburton are entirely different teams. This is like the Pistons losing Cade Cunningham. Maybe worse. If this was officially a longer-timeline return, this would be much higher.
Third, the Pacers have real expectations to contend for a top seed this year, whereas the guys below Haliburton on this list, though out for longer, are not playing for teams with the upside of Indiana, which makes any amount of time Haliburton misses more significant.
Let's hope this is a couple-week thing and Haliburton comes back and he never deals with it again this season (Rick Carlisle did call it a "mild" strain at the outset). But what about the way this season has started across the injury board gives you reason to believe that will be the case?
The Pacers began the season 2-1 but have now lost four straight. They couldn't even beat the Nets, who came in winless, at home on Sunday without Haliburton. If he isn't back by Nov. 13, the Pacers are in major trouble with their schedule: vs. New York, at Philadelphia, vs. Houston, at Cleveland, at New York, vs. Oklahoma City and vs. Philadelphia over the second half of the month.
The Magic might actually be cursed. Two years ago, Banchero and Franz Wagner both tore their obliques, each missing significant time. Last year, Wagner and Jalen Suggs missed a combined 73 games. Over the last two seasons, the trio of Banchero, Wagner and Suggs has played just 25 games.
Now Banchero is out until late November at least, and maybe longer. He didn't even make it two games, going out in the third quarter of Orlando's loss to Minnesota as it opened the season 0-2. The Magic have gone 2-2 without Banchero, and this may not be a death blow if the Magic turn out to actually be better with Wagner operating as a clear No. 1, but his 5-for-20 showing in a loss to Boston on Sunday isn't going to cut it with Banchero out.
We can talk about Banchero's inefficiency and all the issues that come with his Wagner partnership, but he is an apex scorer at his best and he got off to a great start this season with 35 points in the opener. It's hard to imagine the Magic not being a massive hole in a loaded Eastern Conference by the time he gets back.
Remember all the preseason hype around the Jazz? Well, they've started 1-5 and now Jackson is likely out for a couple of months. Utah was getting killed in Jackson's minutes, but there's no denying his importance as a stretch shooter and, more importantly, defensive anchor after the loss of Walker Kessler.
The Jazz have a lot to be excited about on the perimeter with Keyonte George storming out of the gate and Ace Bailey having MIP impact on both ends and the boards (if Darryn Peterson can find his flow, which he will, even better). Brice Sensabaugh is really shooting it.
Unfortunately, the frontcourt hasn't pulled enough weight. Lauri Markkanen has not played well (he could end up traded this season). Kyle Filipowski is taking DNPs. Jusuf Nurkic (foot) is at least expected to make his season debut soon, and that will help a lot, but JJJ being out for a extended stretch is a serious blow to a team already behind the eight ball in a crowded Western Conference.
Grade 2 hammys are a bad deal. They can really linger. Morant was off to a great start with Portland. He and Damian Lillard look like they've been playing together a lot longer than they have. Along with Deni Avdija, they have struck a smooth creation balance. They all lead the offense at different times and are letting it flow when together. Avdija is getting more priority, as he should, as a downhill attacker. Dame isn't shooting it well, but it looks like the old Dame when he forces action off the dribble, and defenses still react to him the same way. He looks pretty comfortable off ball even though the catch-and-shoot numbers are only 36% from 3 so far.
Meanwhile, Morant is, or was, getting into the paint with a controlled aggression. He was coming to jump stops often when he got in there, waiting for the defensive reaction to dictate his next move, be it going up for a touch finish or finding a teammate. He even made 43% of his 3s to start the year. He was genuinely lifting this team in his minutes.
That said, there's a reason everyone thought he should come off the bench to start the year, because even if the fit has been better than expected with Lillard, the Blazers are loaded with guards and therefore should be able to weather Morant's absence.
The Blazers beat the Jazz by 22 in their first game without Morant. Scott Henderson for the start. Jrue Holiday is still there off the bench. Lillard and Avdija can obviously handle the creation; if anything, this clarifies things even more on that end. And the defense should be better with Henderson, Holiday and Toumani Camara seeing more minutes in defensive-oriented lineups alongside Donovan Clingan.
Morant has played well. But Portland is plenty capable of winning without him.
On Oct. 25, the Pistons announced that Duren would be re-evaluated in two weeks. There hasn't been an update since then, so we'll assume that no news is good news and he's on track to return soon. The Pistons need him. A lot is on Cade Cunningham, and these small-ball lineups with John Collins/Paul Reed at the five probably can't be a consistent plan.
But Detroit has managed fine during Duren's absence, winning three of four so far without him; one of the wins even came against the 76ers (albeit without Joel Embiid, which helps when you're playing small) but Detroit was also without Ausar Thompson in that win.
If Duren isn't back in a week, we'll re-evaluate. But so far, Detroit is 5-1 and not in danger of falling into a big hole without its starting center.
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