The Las Vegas Raiders made one of the biggest moves at the NFL trade deadline by trading away Kirk Cousins, which cleared the way for Fernando Mendoza to take over as QB1. With Mendoza’s new QB1 status, Kalshi’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market wasted no time in adjusting his price to win at 23%, which is now ahead of the rest of the field.

Mendoza had a 12% chance to win the OROY in Week 1 before dropping to single digits to this point. He had just a 5% chance ahead of Week 9 and surged 18% following the Cousins trade. A $10 trade on Mendoza winning Offensive Rookie of the Year profits $31.21.

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Ready to take over

Mendoza is ready to pick up where Cousins left off. Cousins has had a tremendous season to this point in Las Vegas with 2,340 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Defenses have sacked him just 11 times and completed 64.1% of his passes. Both his passing yards and touchdowns sit in the top 5 of the league.

Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, will have a fully healthy and thriving offense to operate. The Raiders currently rank as a top-10 offense, averaging 26.4 points along with 331 total yards per game. Brock Bowers will serve as his security blanket as he continues to lead the receiving room with 658 yards and six touchdowns. Tre Tucker will also play a role with his ongoing breakout season at 529 yards and four touchdowns.

The running back room, with Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington, should also relieve some pressure. Both are averaging over three yards per carry. Jeanty has also improved as a pass catcher with 371 receiving yards and three touchdowns on mainly dump-off passes.

Growing pains behind him?

While Mendoza has seen minimal action this season (just eight attempts), we got a good look at him in the preseason. He struggled, completing just 55.6% of passes for 240 passing yards one touchdown, and two interceptions, which ultimately led to Cousins starting the year as QB1.

Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak wanted Mendoza to sit and learn behind an experienced QB in Cousins. Now we’ll see if that time behind Cousins pays off as the Raiders host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10.