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We are 2.5 weeks into the new NBA season, and the league's standings are already playing out largely as predicted.
Sure, there have been some surprises like the Memphis Grizzlies (6-2) and the Western Conference-leading Portland Trail Blazers (6-1). On the flip side, the Miami Heat (3-5) and Utah Jazz (1-7) have been clear disappointments compared to preseason expectations. But otherwise, teams mostly are settling into their expected range of the standings.
Using each team's net rating versus the league average, win-loss record and strength of schedule, Opta Analyst has projected how the rest of the season will play out. Using those projections, we'll also share what the playoff bracket would look like if the season ended today.
You might think this is premature, but previous research has shown that winning percentage and net rating early in the year can be surprisingly predictive. With that in mind, let's dive into the projected standings and playoff bracket.
Team |
Seed |
Estimated Wins |
Estimated Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Pistons |
1 |
52.5 |
29.6 |
Boston Celtics |
2 |
50.4 |
31.6 |
New York Knicks |
3 |
50.1 |
31.9 |
Philadelphia 76ers |
4 |
49.0 |
33.0 |
Toronto Raptors |
5 |
45.3 |
36.7 |
Cleveland Cavaliers |
6 |
44.8 |
37.2 |
Atlanta Hawks |
7 |
44.6 |
37.4 |
Miami Heat |
8 |
40.8 |
41.2 |
Orlando Magic |
9 |
39.0 |
43.0 |
Charlotte Hornets |
10 |
33.8 |
48.2 |
Indiana Pacers |
11 |
33.0 |
49.0 |
Washington Wizards |
12 |
31.5 |
50.5 |
Brooklyn Nets |
13 |
28.6 |
53.4 |
Chicago Bulls |
14 |
28.3 |
53.8 |
Milwaukee Bucks |
15 |
27.7 |
54.3 |
Coming into the season, the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Raptors and Cavaliers were the six East teams with the highest title odds. Lo and behold, Opta's projections have those six snagging the guaranteed playoff spots in the East. The supercomputer also correctly pegged how abysmal the Bulls and Bucks are.
Injuries have caused the Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers to stumble out of the gates, which explains their low spot in these projected standings. And while the Sixers have the league's best record at 8-1, their middling point differential and seemingly unsustainable record in close games seems to be drawing some skepticism from the supercomputer.
Team |
Seed |
Estimated Wins |
Estimated Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder |
1 |
54.6 |
27.4 |
Houston Rockets |
2 |
54.4 |
27.6 |
San Antonio Spurs |
3 |
53.9 |
28.1 |
Minnesota Timberwolves |
4 |
48.6 |
33.4 |
Portland Trail Blazers |
5 |
47.6 |
34.4 |
Los Angeles Lakers |
6 |
46.1 |
35.9 |
Denver Nuggets |
7 |
45.6 |
36.4 |
Golden State Warriors |
8 |
44.5 |
37.5 |
Memphis Grizzlies |
9 |
39.5 |
42.5 |
Phoenix Suns |
10 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
Dallas Mavericks |
11 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
New Orleans Pelicans |
12 |
36.3 |
45.7 |
Los Angeles Clippers |
13 |
33.6 |
48.4 |
Utah Jazz |
14 |
27.8 |
54.2 |
Sacramento Kings |
15 |
25.2 |
56.8 |
Either the supercomputer doesn't know — or doesn't care — that Jalen Williams (fibula/ankle) is out for the season and both Cason Wallace (shoulder) and Chet Holmgren (knee) are out for the foreseeable future. Granted, both the Rockets and Spurs are hot on the Thunder's tail for the No. 1 seed in the West.
The supercomputer was already bullish on the Portland Trail Blazers heading into the season, and their 5-1 start to the season has done nothing to dissuade that. The Timberwolves have surged up the projected standings despite Anthony Edwards' injury, while the Nuggets have tumbled a bit amidst their slow start. And while injuries are contributing to the Jazz's slow start to the season, the supercomputer had them pegged as a lottery-bound team far earlier than most basketball hipsters (myself included) did.
A rematch of the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals in the first round of the playoffs? Kawhi Leonard vs. the Sixers in a rematch of the 2019 Eastern Conference Semifinals? Giannis vs. Cade? The Celtics and Hawks trying to out-Math Ball one another? Yes, please.
If the full-strength Magic and/or Pacers fall into the play-in tournament, they could easily party-crash the playoffs in place of the Hawks or Heat. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if these wound up being the eight teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs in some order.
The highlight here is a first-round showdown between Victor Wembanyama and Luka Dončić, arguably the league's two leading MVP candidates in the early going. But don't sleep on a Battle of the Brash Backcourts in the 4-5 matchup. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball against Dame Lillard and Ja Morant would be must-see TV.
If Holmgren and Wallace are back by mid-April, the Thunder might make quick work of the Warriors. If not, they might be primed for a first-round upset. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody should be back by then, and Yaxel Lendeborg is already emerging as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. Meanwhile, Jokić vs. Alperen "Baby Jokić" Şengün would be a Looper-esque playoff series.
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