Kyle Larson is not yet a three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion. But he is very close.

Larson will carry a 67-point lead into next week's finale at Homestead after a ninth-place finish in the Xfinity 500 on Nov. 1 at Martinsville Speedway.

The math, adding in stage points, isn't limited to one variable. But if Larson earns 10 or more points at Homestead, he wins the title no matter what else happens with championship competitors Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin.

William Byron, Larson's teammate, dominated in the final 300 laps to win the race, with fellow Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott in second.

Here are the winners and losers from the NASCAR Martinsville fall race.

NASCAR Martinsville winners and losers

Winner: Kyle Larson

We'll talk later about Larson's Stage 1 strategy mishap that put him a lap down at stage end.

But the recovery is the main story as he closes in on back-to-back Cup championships.

After that first stage, Larson moved from 23rd to 15th with a couple of fortunately timed cautions. On the second yellow, Larson got back on the lead lap via the free pass.

From there, he chipped away at a ninth-place finish, making a pass of Bell for ninth with 10 laps to get a late two-point boost.

The 2021 and 2025 Cup champion leads Bell by 67 points and Hamlin by 70 points with one race remaining.

Winner: Shane van Gisbergen on a short track

Let's shift away from the Chase and to Shane van Gisbergen's second career top-five finish at a short track.

Similar to Larson, SVG was a lap down early in the second stage before working his way back on the lead lap.

The No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet steadily moved up in the top 10 through the final 200 laps, finishing fifth as one of seven cars on the lead lap.

If this trend of strong short-track runs continues into 2027, we'll probably stop listing him as a winner because it's becoming a feature of SVG, the NASCAR racer. But for now, SVG has a second track type to look forward to — though not quite as good as the road courses.

Loser: The Stage 1 strategy for Denny Hamlin, Larson, others

Martinsville is not the easiest place to pass, with movement on the leaderboard often related to moving other cars out of the bottom lane.

As a result, strategy has an added emphasis. And for many of the championship contenders, they missed on strategy in the first stage.

Six cars stayed out for the entirety of the first stage's 130 laps, while the rest of the field made a stop about halfway through.

Hamlin, Larson and Joey Logano all ran the first stage on the same set of tires. And by the end, all three were well outside the top 10.

Hamlin led at the time of the pit cycle, while Larson and Logano were originally running inside the top 10. Had all three made a stop, they surely would have earned stage points barring a caution. Larson noted that his team was aiming to match Hamlin's strategy with the championship battle in mind.

"It was a difficult race," Larson said to MRN after the race. "The strategy in the first stage got away from us a bit."

Ryan Preece, also on that no-stop strategy, managed to hold on to the lead until the final five laps before relenting, though still registering stage points.

For everyone else, it was a matter of points wasted. And given the importance of track position, the ground they all lost in Stage 1 was never recovered.

Loser: Penske's front bumpers

Team Penske lost two cars in the second stage after damage to the front bumper.

NASCAR implemented a softer front bumper to cars in the short-track package, removing foam to make for more consequence to the more aggressive vehicle when using the bumper to move a car and make a pass.

Well, those consequence tilted heavily toward Penske drivers Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney.

Carson Hocevar got out of the gas at a couple of unusual points on the track while racing in front of Cindric mid-pack during a back-and-forth battle, caving the front bumper in on the No. 2 and forcing Cindric to the garage.

Not too much later, Blaney made a couple of violent bumps to the rear of Josh Berry, with Berry slow in front in a very similar sequence. The final one caved Blaney's front end to look identical to Cindric's, complete with a busted radiator. Blaney spun, then drove to the garage for the repairs.

Both Hocevar and Berry, in speaking to media post-race, shook off the idea of brake-checking.