College football analyst Greg McElroy is picking No. 20 Northwestern to win at Oregon on Saturday, backing Chip Kelly’s return to Autzen Stadium against a Ducks program that fired its offensive coordinator and lost its starting quarterback for the season this week.

The ESPN broadcaster took the Wildcats to win 24-20 on his Always College Football podcast ahead of the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Peacock. “I think Kelly will call the better game in Autzen,” McElroy said.

How did Oregon get here?

Oregon opened the season No. 2 in the AP Top 25. The Ducks are now 4-3 and unranked after a 21-10 loss at Illinois, and Oregon coach Dan Lanning fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer on Sunday, saying the offense needed a new direction to move forward.

The bigger blow came Monday night. Lanning said he doesn’t expect quarterback Dante Moore back this season after the concussion Moore suffered at USC in late September.

“I think if it was up to Dante in any shape or way, he would want to be out there playing for guys, but unfortunately, it’s not really up to Dante,” Lanning said.

Moore threw for 926 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions in four games. Without him, Oregon has bounced between Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas, losing 17-15 to UCLA before Raiola came off the bench to beat Nebraska 17-14.

“With Moore, Oregon is 3-1,” McElroy said. “Without Moore, Oregon is 1-2.”

Chip Kelly and Northwestern’s offense

Kelly went 46-7 as Oregon’s head coach from 2009-12. Now in his first season as Northwestern’s offensive coordinator, he has the Wildcats at 6-1 and 3-1 in the Big Ten, with their only loss a 29-23 decision at then-No. 5 Indiana on Sept. 25.

Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles has given Kelly a dual-threat quarterback, and receiver Griffin Wilde has become his top downfield target. Northwestern also ranks second in the Big Ten in rushing at 204.6 yards per game, which helped push the Wildcats up the Week 9 Big Ten power rankings.

“Northwestern’s passing offense is a strength. They complete over 61% of their deep throws,” McElroy said. “That is the best rate in the FBS, because Chiles throws really catchable deep balls and Wilde doesn’t drop it.”

Kelly’s last trip to Autzen came in 2024 as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, a loss to the Ducks before the Buckeyes won the College Football Playoff rematch in the Rose Bowl 41-21.

Where can Oregon find an edge?

McElroy believes Oregon’s best path is to speed the game up with inside runs, attacking a Northwestern defense he called soft between the tackles. The Ducks also need edge rushers Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti to pressure Chiles without help, because McElroy said Chiles has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country against the blitz.

Ball security is the other concern. Oregon has turned the ball over 12 times, and Northwestern head coach David Braun has thrived when his defense wins that battle.

“A new play-caller with a quarterback question is exactly the kind of offense that gives a defense like this plenty of chances to take the ball away,” McElroy said.