The FedExCup Fall continues with a newcomer to the fall schedule, the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. After spending its first four editions in the spring, the tournament moves to the fall and offers another opportunity for golfers to secure their PGA Tour eligibility for the 2027 season, earn spots in early-season Signature Events, and potentially claim a spot on the PGA Tour Championship series in its debut season.

The VidantaWorld is the fifth of eight FedExCup Fall events, and personally, it's one of my favorites.

This is a driver-heavy, bomber's paradise.

Yes, Brian Campbell (+35000) won this event last year as one of the shortest hitters in the field, but he had to take down one of the longest hitters, Aldrich Potgieter (+8000), in a playoff. And let's not forget Campbell needed a bit of luck with his driver after hitting his ball into the trees, only for it to ricochet back into play.

Brian Campbell's tournament-winning approach tops Shots of the Week

The par-71 course, listed at 7,337 yards, has been shortened this year, and we can expect it to play even easier for the longer hitters.

While water comes into play on 12 holes, there's very little danger when hitting driver off the tee. The fairways are a mile wide, the rough isn't remotely penal and the greens are massive, averaging around 7,000 square feet.

This Greg Norman-designed golf course has produced winning scores in the mid 20s-under par. When the weather cooperated in 2023, Tony Finau won the tournament at 24 under.

The biggest separator at this golf course has easily been driving distance, and I have a hard time not making it the highest-weighted metric in my model.

Here's a look at the longest hitters in the field.

In golf betting, I live by a very specific rule: Bet on golfers when they're a great course fit.

For Johnny Keefer, I have a hard time not deploying him in some capacity, whether that's in the betting market or DFS, at golf courses that demand length off the tee and don't punish you for missing fairways.

Keefer is one of the longest golfers in the field. His best finishes have come at courses where length is an advantage, and the fairways are generous.

John Keefer reaches par-5 No. 9 in two, makes birdie at Bank of Utah

He finished T10 at the Bank of Utah Championship, T9 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Look back at his Korn Ferry Tour success, and you'll find plenty of strong performances at courses with wider fairways.

The funny thing about Keefer's golf game is that when he's hitting fairways, his approach numbers can be downright ridiculous.

Over his last 16 rounds, he's hit 69.6% of his fairways, one of the best stretches of his young PGA Tour career.

Keefer's biggest concern is his putter. When it doesn't cooperate, he can struggle. But like many young golfers, he's a streaky putter. At this course, I don't think putting is nearly as much of an advantage, given how simple the green complexes are.

Sometimes, as golf handicappers, we get too far into the weeds with specific metrics. Maybe I'm guilty of that with grass surfaces this week, but I do think there's merit in looking at past success on paspalum.

It's a relatively unique surface on the PGA Tour. Most golfers spend the majority of their time on bentgrass, Poa annua, or Bermudagrass. When we get to paspalum courses, we tend to see some of the same golfers find success.

With that in mind, here's a look at the golfers gaining the most strokes over their last 24 rounds on paspalum surfaces.

Sometimes I look at golf odds and feel like certain golfers are being disrespected because their most recent season didn't live up to the hottest stretch of their careers.

I think that's happening with Ben Griffin (+2500) right now.

Nobody could have imagined the season Griffin put together in 2025. He was playing the best golf of his life, winning tournaments and contending seemingly every week. Replicating that kind of success in 2026 was always going to be difficult unless your name is Scottie Scheffler.

Even with the lack of wins, there were still some bright spots in Griffin's game. The problem was that he couldn't put everything together for four complete rounds.

Ben Griffin's 150-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 2 at Wyndham

One thing I noticed was how much his driver seemed to dictate the rest of his game. When he struggled off the tee, the entire round seemed to unravel. When he drove it well, that momentum carried into the rest of his bag.

Well, let's go ahead and take some of those driving concerns out of the equation.

Griffin is plenty long enough off the tee, and he's going to hit a ton of fairways at Vidanta Vallarta. If he's gaining strokes off the tee, that makes the rest of his game even more dangerous and gives his putter an opportunity to get hot.

Even without the wins and podium finishes in 2026, Griffin remained one of the better first-round golfers in this field.

He's a golfer who can get ridiculously hot in a single round, and his strokes gained numbers across his last 36 opening rounds rank among the best in the field.

That alone warrants a first-round leader wager, regardless of whether you like him to win the tournament or even finish inside the top 20.

So why am I also backing Griffin to finish inside the top 20 when his recent finishes haven't been all that impressive?

First, it's pedigree. I still believe Griffin is one of the best golfers in this field, even with his "B" game.

Second, it's win equity. Griffin has more win equity than 95% of the golfers teeing it up this week.

And last but not least, you guessed it, grass type.

Ben Griffin’s winning highlights from World Wide Technology

Griffin has been fantastic on paspalum golf courses. He won the 2025 World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante, finished T4 at Vidanta Vallarta last season and recorded a T14 at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2024.

That's a pretty impressive track record on a surface that isn't nearly as common on the PGA Tour.

If Griffin brings his "B-plus" game this week, I think he contends to win this golf tournament.

If his game is just average, or somewhere around his baseline, I still think finishing inside the top 20 should be a walk in the park for him.