Ireland head into November with a place in the inaugural Nations Championship final firmly within reach — but even winning all three of their remaining games might not be enough.

Andy Farrell’s side welcome Argentina, Fiji and South Africa to Dublin over the coming weeks, with their results determining where they finish in the northern hemisphere standings.

Only the team that tops that table will qualify for the Grand Final against the leading southern hemisphere nation at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, on November 29. The remaining teams will contest placement matches against their opposite number from the other hemisphere.

Ireland begin the November series in fourth place on ten points, level with England, one behind Scotland and two adrift of leaders France.

Position	Team	Points
1	France	12
2	Scotland	11
3	England	10
4	Ireland	10
5	Wales	5
6	Italy	0

That leaves Ireland close enough to challenge, but without complete control of their own route to the final.

A victory earns four championship points, with an additional point available for scoring four or more tries. Teams can also collect a losing bonus point by finishing within seven points of their opponents, meaning a defeat can still produce two points if both conditions are met.

For Ireland, three bonus-point victories would therefore deliver the maximum available return of 15 points, taking them to 25 overall.

However, France could reach 27, Scotland could finish on 26, and England could also get to 25. Even a perfect November would leave Ireland watching results elsewhere.

A more realistic target could be bonus-point victories over Argentina and Fiji, followed by a win of any description against South Africa. That combination would deliver 14 points and leave Ireland on 24.

In that scenario, Ireland would finish outright above France if Les Bleus collected no more than 11 points from their remaining fixtures. Scotland would need to take no more than 12, while England would need to collect no more than 13.

Any rival finishing alongside Ireland would bring the competition’s tie-break rules into play.

There are obvious fixtures that could open the door for Farrell’s men.

France face Fiji, South Africa and Argentina, with their meeting with the Springboks on November 13 potentially carrying major implications for Ireland’s hopes.

Scotland host New Zealand, Australia and Japan, while England welcome Australia and Japan before finishing against the All Blacks.

However, an Irish win over South Africa combined with a French defeat against the same opponents would not automatically settle matters.

If France beat Fiji and Argentina with bonus points, then collect two bonus points in defeat against the Springboks, they would still finish on 24. That would match Ireland’s total from three wins and two try bonus points.

Equally, Ireland could win all three matches without collecting a single try bonus point and finish on 22 — leaving considerably more room for their rivals to stay ahead.

Two victories would not automatically end Ireland’s hopes either. Bonus-point wins over Argentina and Fiji would take them to 20 before the South Africa game, where they could collect up to two further points even in defeat.

That route would require a much more favourable set of results elsewhere, but it underlines why every bonus point could matter.

For Ireland, the clearest route is to beat all three visitors, collect as many bonus points as possible and hope France, Scotland and England leave enough points behind.

The first step comes against Argentina on Friday night.

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