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Dylan Larkin's saga may not be at an end, but perhaps his eventual exit from the Detroit Red Wings finally has a roadmap to a resolution.
Larkin has a list of 10 teams he'd accept a trade to and given that it all started this summer with four, you could consider this progress…or resignation on Larkin's part at least. Fortunately for us, a list of 10 teams is pretty ideal to break down and figure out who has the most optimistic chance of acquiring the Detroit centerman who's scored 30 or more goals for five straight seasons.
Of the 10 teams, none of them are located in Canada (sorry Montréal) and at least two of them have Hughes brothers playing for them. From the East Coast to the southeast to the Midwest to the Rockies, we'll rank out which teams have the best chance to land Dylan Larkin based on NHL players they could part with, prospect pool, picks and, of course, cap space. Let's get to it.
Any time we do a list of teams who could trade for a star player, Vegas is always included because they'll always do their part to throw their hat in the ring. When it comes to Dylan Larkin, there's no doubt they'd love to do the same for him, but they've got a lot working against them.
Vegas's roster is teeming over with players that have trade protection. Whether it's a modified no-trade clause to a full no-move, it's hard to imagine any player who could be part of an offer for Larkin saying yes to going from Las Vegas to Detroit. That's a huge roadblock that also interferes with them being able to free up cap space to make a potential move as well and since they've got less than $500,000 in cap freedom, that's a problem.
The Golden Knights also lack in elite prospects and while a younger player like Trevor Connelly is proving themselves now, he alone won't be able to land them Larkin. Vegas's only hope to pull this off would be a three-team deal to best sort out the no-trade/no-move clauses, but the hoops to jump through might even be too many for them to make it happen.
Just like with Vegas, count out the Florida Panthers from making a big trade at your own peril. But just like the Golden Knights, the Panthers face many of the same obstacles to potentially acquiring Dylan Larkin.
The Panthers have some freedom against the salary cap at the moment thanks to the long-term absences of Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, but with both players expected back before too long, that window to spend against LTIR won't be open long. Florida gets $10 million in relief from Barkov and could have another $5.25 million with Marchand if they put him on LTIR. Jonah Gadjovich's $905,000 is helping them out a little right now as well according to PuckPedia.com.
The Panthers have been adamant about not trading Anton Lundell and there's no reason for them to have changed their mind about that, even with someone like Larkin willing to go there. Making this kind of trade within the division isn't unheard of (see Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart), but Lundell would instantly be Detroit's No. 1 center if he was swapped for Larkin and even though the Panthers are in a better place than the Red Wings, facing up to that for the years to come seems unpleasant even for them.
The Panthers lack of high-end prospects would also inhibit a trade of this scale and the eventual need to shift money around could cause other problems. It's not impossible for them to add Larkin, but it would be highly difficult.
The idea of Dylan Larkin joining the Dallas Stars sounds great on paper and fits GM Jim Nill's MO of aiming big to add to the team, but the Stars almost might have a better chance to acquire him after this season than during it.
While the Stars have to get Jason Robertson extended before he hits free agency, they're also set to watch Tyler Seguin's $9.85 million contract end as well as $1.5 million from Tyler Myers after this season. Ideally, Robertson's next contract commands a big chunk of that up from his current $12 million hit, but likely not by so much that it would impede adding Larkin's $8.7 million.
If Dallas could make a trade happen this season to add Larkin, they'd be putting themselves in the driver's seat to be Cup contenders for even longer. But how they can put together a trade package to appease the Red Wings is tricky given they've got their top guys locked up long-term and most of them with trade protection (aside from Wyatt Johnston, curiously). Prospects like Emil Hemming, Cameron Schmidt and 2026 second-round pick defenseman Jakub Vaněček would almost certainly have to be included, but the Stars pool of elite prospects is already thin enough.
If you told Red Wings fans 20 years ago that one day they could trade their captain and top forward to the Colorado Avalanche, you'd probably be told you're out of your mind. Times change and so do needs and rivalries and Dylan Larkin saying he'd be happy going to Denver still likely rankles more than a few fans in Detroit.
If there's an upside to this for those disgruntled Wings fans, the Avalanche haven't got a great case to make for the former captain. While Colorado adding Larkin would be more than a coup in the Western Conference, what they could off Detroit for him might not be enough to keep Shawn Horcoff on the phone.
Veterans like Nicolas Roy, Fyodor Svechkov, Parker Kelly and Noah Juulsen don't have trade protection and while their combined cap hits could make way for Larkin, it's hard to see Detroit being motivated by them. Perhaps adding Scott Wedgewood would help, but prospects would be necessary from Colorado to sweeten that pot and they're running thin on top ones after being Stanley Cup contenders for the past few years.
If Dylan Larkin wanting a trade out of Detroit wasn't hard enough to stomach for the Red Wings and their fans, his desire to go to division rivals is enough to see red. But for interim GM Shawn Horcoff, the Tampa Bay Lightning offer curious potential.
If the Lightning wanted to make a run at Larkin, freeing up money to make it happen would be tricky but not impossible. They've got a few million in cap space already and they have a handful of roster players they could send to Detroit to help them bring on Larkin and his $8.7 million cap hit.
Although those potential players won't totally move the needle for Detroit, adding in a prospect like Ethan Czata or younger players like Conor Geekie and Dominic James could help bring them to the table. Then again, the Lightning haven't been perpetually successful by emptying out their coffers of young players, particularly to division rivals.
What could make pursuing Larkin most intimidating? Nikita Kucherov's impending big-time extension they'd like to get him signed to before becoming a free agent this summer. A luxury addition like Larkin would assuredly make getting that done far more difficult given that Larkin's contract has four more years beyond this one remaining.
Of the teams in the race for Dylan Larkin, the Wild have been, reportedly, the most aggressive. Rumors of an offer turned down have swirled and with GM Bill Guerin known for being active in the market at all times, it would make sense.
The Wild can offer roster players to make the money work and the handful of top prospects in the organization are interesting, but any of their best players are already helping the Wild out in the NHL. If Detroit had interest in a goalie, Jesper Wallstedt or (currently injured) Filip Gustavsson would be more than good enough to get talks going, but the Wings have John Gibson and are high on their own prospect in Trey Augustine.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is most busy trying to get Quinn Hughes signed to an extension and there's a theory that landing Larkin could help them retain Hughes thanks to their shared glory with Team USA at the Olympics. That might be a mild stretch, but if Minnesota finding a way to land Larkin was what it took to retain Hughes long-term, Guerin would have to make that happen no matter what, wouldn't he? Picks and prospects might not be enough to get Detroit to say yes, especially since those picks likely won't be high first-rounders.
Dylan Larkin joining the Washington Capitals sounds like the kind of move that would be impossible, but one look at the Caps' salary structure, roster and how things look down the road says otherwise.
What the Capitals lack in salary room now to add Larkin could be made up quickly if they were willing to move Dylan Strome in such an offer. Strome's $5 million cap hit would cover more than half of Larkin's $8.7 million hit, for example. Washington has enough movable contracts and potentially maneuverable no-trade clauses to even out the money.
The Capitals have enough NHL-experienced players to make a deal happen and if Detroit wanted prospects, that could be a bit stickier but not a total dealbreaker. But if Detroit's insistence is on making a "hockey trade" for Larkin, the Capitals might provide them one of the better opportunities.
New Devils GM Sunny Mehta is a guy we're still getting to know when it comes to making deals so the possibility of New Jersey making a run at Dylan Larkin is loaded with mystery.
What we know about the Devils is they've got players who could make a deal happen. Forwards Dawson Mercer and Arseny Gritsyuk would be attractive to the Red Wings as would prospect defensemen Anton Silaev and Seamus Casey. Moving guys like Mercer and/or Gritsyuk would help free up cap space and including a top prospect like Silaev would certainly appeal to Detroit. The question here is whether it would be enough to make the Red Wings happy.
Oddly enough, like the Wild, the Devils have the future to consider that could involve Quinn Hughes to join his brothers Jack and Luke in Newark. If Hughes doesn't sign long-term with the Wild, keeping future salary cap space free to sign Quinn Hughes would be wise for New Jersey. But teams want to win now and if landing Larkin helps the Devils right away, making that move and figuring out how to land Quinn in the offseason can be a tomorrow problem.
The Devils can make an interesting offer for Larkin and at least get Detroit on the phone with players, prospects and picks, but the prospect of reuniting the Hughes clan looms.
The Hurricanes didn't get to be Stanley Cup champions last season without being aggressive and with Dylan Larkin out there and saying he'd happily go to Carolina, exploring that move makes a lot of sense.
Larkin would give the Hurricanes another top offensive weapon and yet another player for them to stifle opponents by driving shots to the net and maintaining offensive zone possession. What's more is Carolina has Alexander Nikishin to dangle in an offer, although given the Red Wings' difficulty in getting their own RFA defenseman Simon Edvinsson re-signed, attempting to do the same with Nikishin seems foreboding given he could just as well go back to Russia to play if he was unhappy with the trade.
Still, Carolina has more than Nikishin to use in a trade if they wanted to push for Larkin. They've already got plenty of cap space so moving money to add Larkin isn't an issue. They have prospects like Bradly Nadeau, Felix Unger Sörum, Charlie Cerrato and Joel Nystrom to entice Detroit (among others) not to mention a veteran like Jesperi Kotkaniemi if the Wings required NHL talent in return.
A reason for Detroit to be wary of Carolina in making a trade? Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky generally gets things his way against even the most experienced GMs.
In Larkin's revised list of teams he's willing to accept a trade to, Utah was arguably the most surprising one. The Mammoth aren't in the same tier as Stanley Cup contenders as Carolina, Colorado, Vegas or Dallas, but they're young and on the rise and already made the playoffs last season. They're also a team that could make a spectacular offer to the Red Wings.
Utah's young core of Clayton Keller, Larkin's Olympic teammate, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther are reasons to want to join the Mammoth alone. With Mikhail Sergachev and MacKenzie Weegar leading the way on defense and Karel Vejmelka holding it down in net, the Mammoth are fun.
To be able to add Larkin, they've got up-and-coming young players like Dmitri Simashev, Daniil But, Caleb Desnoyers, Tij Iginla, Maveric Lamoureaux, Max Psenicka and Michal Hrabal either in Utah or on the way in a year or two, that's a lot of ammo for a trade. Even though Utah is reportedly also in the mix for Connor Hellebuyck, they've got enough going on prospect-wise to add both if they wanted to get hyper aggressive. But for Larkin, they've got plenty of assets to use to not just get Detroit on the phone but to close the deal as well.
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