Cardiff City are defying expectations, earning the respect of their rivals and giving fans reason to dream of something special this season

What did Cardiff City supporters really expect from this season?

After the euphoria of promotion from League One, the emergence of an exciting new playing style and a squad built around youthful exuberance rather than expensive experience, was there ever really an expectation beyond simply surviving in the Championship?

Cardiff fans are an ambitious bunch. Passionate, demanding and fiercely proud of their football club. And rightly so. This is a giant of a club, with a vast catchment area, a rich history and a fanbase that has always believed its rightful place is among the country's elite.

It would hardly have been surprising, then, had supporters immediately set their sights on another promotion following their return to the second tier.

But what struck me over the summer was just how measured the overwhelming majority were. How realistic. How willing they were to give this young team time.

Perhaps that is what years of relentless decline does to a fanbase.

Cardiff supporters had watched their club slowly lose its way, season after season, as the football became increasingly uninspiring, the connection between the pitch and the stands weakened and the simple joy of supporting the Bluebirds was gradually eroded.

For too many loyal supporters, going to Cardiff City Stadium had become an obligation rather than a pleasure. Something to endure rather than enjoy.

And yet, almost imperceptibly at first, something has changed.

The colour has returned. The excitement has returned. Most importantly, the belief has returned.

A couple of years ago, sitting 16th in the Championship after a dozen games would have been enough to summon the familiar grey clouds of discontent. The grumbles, the frustration, the sense that another season was already drifting towards mediocrity.

But look around Cardiff City Stadium now. Listen to the supporters. Watch the football. It feels like a different club.

Even when results weren't going their way in the opening weeks, there was something genuinely exhilarating about watching Brian Barry-Murphy's team. Has any Cardiff manager experienced less pressure after failing to win eight successive matches? No, and that's because knowledgeable Cardiff fans could see what was really happening.

The team played with bravery, imagination and an almost infectious disregard for the limitations supposedly imposed upon them by their inexperience.

There was a clear identity. A discernible plan. A reason to believe the results would eventually catch up with the performances. And now they are beginning to.

Ten points from the last five matches, including the scalp of high-flying Birmingham City and an impressive 2-2 draw away at promotion-chasing Middlesbrough, have provided tangible evidence of the progress that has been staring us in the face for weeks.

The underlying numbers have been screaming it for some time.

Expected goals might not be everybody's cup of tea, but the Championship's xG table paints a fascinating picture. According to that measure, Cardiff should be sitting seventh, a staggering nine places above their actual position. No other club in the division has a greater disparity.

Of course, football is not played on spreadsheets. Goals must be scored, chances taken and leads protected. Cardiff have not always been ruthless enough in either penalty area.

But the numbers tell us something important. This is not a team scraping by, riding its luck or punching above its weight through sheer bloody-mindedness. This is a team consistently creating the conditions to win football matches.

And if supporters need any further reassurance that what they are watching is special, they need only listen to the opposition managers.

Because there is a growing body of evidence that Cardiff City are earning something they have rarely enjoyed in recent years.

Not grudging respect. Not faint praise for their physicality or organisation. But genuine admiration.

Having sat through countless opposition press conferences this season, I have been struck by just how often rival managers have emerged from games against Cardiff sounding relieved, bewildered or thoroughly impressed.

Sometimes all three.

Take Sheffield United's Chris Wilder, a manager who knows this division as well as anybody. His side escaped Cardiff City Stadium with a point, and he made little attempt to disguise just how fortunate they had been.

"I've been in the Championship long enough not to get embarrassed by picking the result up," he admitted.

"I think we were fortunate at times today. I've been in that situation as well, a promoted team coming up and playing an established Championship team. And they were the better team.

"Brian [Barry-Murphy] will be disappointed he's not got a win, and we'll be delighted that we're taking something up the road.

"Cardiff never turned the ball over. They created momentum, they created opportunities, they created chances. So, a bit of head-scratching there, for me."

There was a similar sense of disbelief from Bolton boss Ryan Schumacher after his side somehow emerged with all three points despite being subjected to almost 90 minutes of Cardiff pressure before Thierry Gale's dramatic late winner.

"Today we've had to show another side of us, which is really pleasing because it was difficult against a tough opponent, who are probably the hardest team to play against when you're tired," Schumacher said.

"Gavin [Bazunu] has done it for us today because Cardiff created the clearer opportunities, a bit more in the final third than what we did, a bit better attacking play.

"When that happens, you need your goalkeeper to make saves for you and today he was outstanding."

That is the language of a manager who knows his players have been put through the wringer.

Charlton boss Nathan Jones was even more emphatic after Cardiff recorded their first Championship victory of the campaign.

"Cardiff outworked us, out-battled us and they were stronger and more aggressive, which I think is unacceptable for our team, that's the big thing I'm embarrassed about," he said.

"Then they passed the ball better, they had more shots, more possession, more everything. It's a tough one to take.

"We give Cardiff a bit of credit because they played well, but we allowed them to do what they wanted today."

And Jones was unequivocal when asked whether Cardiff's league position was misleading.

"Statistically they are [in a false position]. They're a very fluid side. They have a young, energetic side."

Middlesbrough manager Kim Hellberg, whose side are among the division's promotion contenders, was similarly effusive ahead of the thrilling 2-2 draw earlier this month.

"I like them a lot. They are a very good side and I think they play very good football," he said.

"The coach has done an absolutely brilliant job. They are very brave on the ball and, together with us, the two most in-possession teams, I think.

"They create a lot of chances. They have been open in the way of playing and they're very brave, so I think Cardiff is a very good football side and they will cause problems, and have been causing problems, for all teams. They deserve more points than they have."

And then came Birmingham City.

Chris Davies watched his expensively assembled side struggle to impose themselves against the Bluebirds and, afterwards, simply held his hands up. Cardiff had been better.

"We couldn't get on top of them at any point until the last 15 minutes or so when we looked like we could nick something from the game," he admitted.

"Every time we had possession of the ball there was a blue shirt on us and playing and beating that press was going to take a combination of quick decisive thinking or playing over to the frontline and using our physicality and speed in behind, but neither were allowing us too much progression up the pitch.

"Too much of it was around our half or the halfway line and we just couldn't get near their box."

There is a common thread running through all those assessments.

Cardiff are not simply making life awkward for opponents. They are imposing themselves on them. Dictating games, suffocating teams without the ball and unsettling them with it.

And, tellingly, their rivals know it.

For years, the compliments paid to Cardiff City were of an all together different variety. They were big. They were strong. They were experienced. They were "difficult to play against".

In 2021, then-Bournemouth manager Jonathan Woodgate summed up the prevailing perception rather neatly.

"They've got players who are 6ft 5in, 6ft 6in. It was land of the giants. They play it really well, Cardiff."

There was nothing inherently wrong with that approach. Indeed, physicality and directness have served Cardiff well at various points in their history.

But it is a world away from what is unfolding now.

Barry-Murphy has not merely changed the way Cardiff play football. He has changed the way opposition teams think about them.

Where once they were feared for their size, now they are respected for their skill. Where once they sought to overpower opponents, now they seek to outthink, outrun and outplay them.

And they are doing it with a team full of young players with vast room to grow. That is what makes this project so compelling.

There are imperfections, of course. Plenty of them.

Defensively, Cardiff can still be naïve. They have been punished for moments of carelessness and have occasionally looked vulnerable when their attacking ambition leaves space behind.

At the other end, their finishing has not always matched the quality of their approach play. Too many excellent chances have gone begging, and that helps explain the chasm between their expected league position and the reality of 16th.

Those shortcomings cannot simply be wished away. They will need to be addressed if Cardiff are to turn attractive football into sustained success. Indeed, January sounds like it will be an important month for Barry-Murphy judging by his comments this week.

But look at the ceiling of this team.

Look at how much room there is for improvement. Look at the ages of the players. Look at the confidence with which they are beginning to perform.

This is not a side nearing the end of its cycle. It is one barely scratching the surface of what it might become.

And over these last five matches, we have started to see just how dangerous that could be.

Nobody should underestimate the scale of the challenge ahead.

The financial muscle of clubs such as Wolves, West Ham, Middlesbrough and Birmingham City dwarfs what Cardiff can realistically bring to the table. There are squads in this division assembled at extraordinary expense, with established Championship performers and Premier League experience throughout.

Cardiff are finding another way.

They are developing their own players, identifying footballers who fit a clearly defined system and trusting a coaching staff to make them better.

For once, Cardiff City look greater than the sum of their parts.

Barry-Murphy and his staff are extracting performances that few would have predicted at the start of the campaign. Players are growing before our eyes. The recruitment department appears to have identified exactly the right profiles with the business it has managed to complete, namely the additions of Jack Moylan and Krystian Bielik.

The home performances have been particularly encouraging, and the atmosphere around the club has been transformed. There is an energy about Cardiff City Stadium again.

It is tempting, of course, to get carried away.

To look at the underlying numbers, the recent results and the praise from rival managers and start wondering whether Cardiff might have something rather more ambitious than mid-table security in their sights.

Could they really challenge for those extended play-off places?

Could a team that was playing League One football just a few months ago somehow muscle its way into the promotion conversation?

It sounds fanciful. Perhaps it is.

There are enormous tests ahead, and the coming weeks will tell us considerably more about whether Cardiff possess the consistency, resilience and cutting edge required to compete at the sharp end of this unforgiving division.

A play-off challenge may well be an ambition for another season, when this young squad has another year of development behind it and Barry-Murphy has had more time to refine his methods.

But then again, why should anybody be in a hurry to put a ceiling on what this team can achieve?

Barry-Murphy certainly isn't interested in telling supporters to rein in their expectations.

Asked whether Cardiff fans should temper their play-off ambitions this season, he offered a wonderfully refreshing response.

"Fans of Cardiff can do what they want. They pay a lot of money and support the club everywhere and anywhere, so they can do whatever they want!"

And why shouldn't they? We still have 36 games to go.

Football is supposed to be about hope. About possibility. About those glorious moments when you allow yourself to imagine that something extraordinary might just happen.

Cardiff supporters have spent far too long watching their club go backwards. Far too long being told to lower their expectations, accept their circumstances and make peace with disappointment.

Now they have a team that makes them want to look up rather than down.