Larry Holmes was one win away from matching Rocky Marciano’s 49–0 record when Michael Spinks took his heavyweight title in September 1985. After losing a close unanimous decision, Holmes had something to say about the champion whose record he’d come up short of tying. “Marciano couldn’t wear my jockstrap,” he said.

I thought Spinks earned that decision by taking the final round, and I gave Holmes the rematch, which Spinks won by split decision. But the crack about Marciano got me thinking about something Holmes did in the ring. He sometimes left his left arm extended between jabs to keep a shorter man at a distance. Most fighters would try to get around it. I think Marciano would have started punching it.

Rocky could come up from his crouch with a short uppercut into the elbow or dig a hook into the upper arm when Holmes covered up. He’d take some clean jabs getting close enough to do it. But if those punches made Holmes think twice about leaving the arm out, Marciano would have more room to step in. A punch that looked wasted in the fourth could buy him a shot at the ribs in the tenth.

Holmes could make that a slow and painful trade for Marciano. A quick jab and half a step back would leave Rocky reaching for an arm that was already gone. If Marciano tried to cover the extra ground by ducking in from too far away, Holmes could catch him with the right uppercut. Rocky might do good work once he got his head against Holmes’s chest and still spend most of the round trying to get there.

The danger for Holmes would come when he started pulling straight back with his hands down. Marciano was behind against Jersey Joe Walcott before knocking him out in the 13th to win the title. In the Ezzard Charles rematch, he scored an eighth-round stoppage with his nose badly split. Holmes could be well ahead after ten rounds and still have to watch where his left hand came back after every jab. If it dropped to his waist, Marciano could throw his right over it without having to get all the way inside.

I’d take Holmes by decision over 15 rounds. I can see Marciano hurting him late, especially if the work on the arm took some snap off the jab. But Holmes could win the first two minutes of a round from a distance and make Rocky spend most of the last minute closing it. I’d give Holmes more of those rounds than I’d give Marciano the kind where he got close early and kept him there.