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Our tipster expects the ‘Bucky Show’ to continue.
It’s Gameweek 8 in the NFL, and PP tipster Andrew Cunneen has an acca for Sunday’s games. You probably know the drill by now; four picks pertinent to the RedZone, which have undergone a variety of tests, including a pin on a board and a crystal being dangled over all the options.
That’s devotion for ya! Anyway, here goes…
*All games are available on DAZN to UK viewers
6pm Cardinals @ Cowboys – Michael Wilson: Over 4.5 Receptions
6pm Falcons @ Buccaneers – Bucky Irving: Over 2.5 Receptions
9.26pm Chargers @ Rams – Omarion Hampton: Over 1.5 Receptions
9.26pm Patriots @ Dolphins – A.J. Brown: Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
It’s worth noting that, to this point, Michael Wilson has been limited with a rib injury. Odds-makers need to be conservative with these because there is a chance of aggravation.
Wilson hasn’t been the same since Marvin Harrison left, which is a funny, backhanded compliment to give someone who’s otherwise been kinda useless. But his stint outside has meant his average depth of target has been way higher, resulting in a poor conversion rate on those targets.
For example, he still commanded eight targets against an elite Denver defense, but only caught four of them. They know they need to work him into shorter areas of the field to avoid jump ball situations that could re-injure him, and also because Dallas cannot tackle.
Pump the over. This is a man who had 30 combined targets between Week 3 and 4.
The Bucs ran all over the Panthers, which afforded Baker Mayfield the chance to only throw 11 passes. He’ll be throwing more than that this week, but the conservative nature of his throws should remain.
Irving was the bellcow in Carolina, getting 24 rush attempts and two targets. You cannot run on Atlanta the way you run on Carolina, so I anticipate a lot of quick gameplay and backs on swing routes.
Gainwell is not the two-minute back like we’ve seen him be in Pittsburgh, so that’s an immediate win – Tampa Bay is the Bucky show and I think he’ll be a prominent feature in Mayfield, getting the ball out early in a game that will be tight.
Mike McDaniel’s seat is hotter than most, and he’s been in the press talking about the fact that it’s basically not his fault – he blames the talent.
Well, there are a couple of things at play here – firstly, he’s come under strong criticism for not harnessing the talents of a first-round running back more often, and secondly, Kimani Vidal is a prime trade target as they approach the deadline.
Expect the former to take the latter’s touches. Keaton Mitchell has been the biggest tell for an outside run versus inside run in the NFL this year, so I suspect they’ll diversify Hampton’s role coming off the bye week.
He even had four receptions in Kansas City a fortnight ago.
After his stint on IR, the star acquisition for New England has looked sluggish.
He hasn’t recorded a four-catch game all year, and the path to victory against Miami is by running the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson.
They’ll likely be conservative with his deployment given he’s clearly still hurt and won’t need to be a huge factor in this one. He was limited all week in practice, and they’re getting a lot of joy out of multi-tight end sets. Brown rarely gets targeted in those formations.
6pm Cardinals @ Cowboys – Michael Wilson: Over 4.5 Receptions
6pm Falcons @ Buccaneers – Bucky Irving: Over 2.5 Receptions
9.26pm Chargers @ Rams – Omarion Hampton: Over 1.5 Receptions
9.26pm Patriots @ Dolphins – A.J. Brown: Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
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