The Miami Hurricanes (7-0) are headed to Chapel Hill to face the UNC Tar Heels on Halloween night. The undefeated Hurricanes are no.1 in the nation and the Tar Heels (4-3) are unranked.

Per ESPN, Miami has a nearly 90% win expectancy and are two touchdown favorites. The game will be on ABC at 7:30pm as Mario Cristobal faces off against Bill Belichick.

Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, Miami is 5th overall in FBS while UNC is 58th overall. Miami is 1st on offense, 15th on defense, and 21st in kicking. UNC is 75th in offense, 42nd on defense, and 97th in kicking.

The Hurricanes are no.1 in the country in points per game scoring 44.3 per contest. UNC is 93rd in FBS with 22.7 PPG scored.

The ‘Canes are 2nd in FBS in 3rd down offense converting 55% of their tries, while UNC is 73rd sitting around 39% on 3rd down.

UNC is 26th in FBS on 4th down converting 67% of the time, while Miami is 118th at 33% on 4th down.

On defense, Miami is 15th in PPG allowed while giving up 16.7 PPG. UNC is 50th as the Heels allow 23.8 PPG.

The Tar Heels are 95th in FBS on 3rd down while allowing teams to convert 42% of the time. Miami is 61st on 3rd down defense allowing a 38% conversion rate.

UM is 8th in turnover margin per game at +1.0 TOPG, UNC is 111th at -0.7 TOPG.

Both coaches preach discipline but Miami is 120th in penalty yards per game as the ‘Canes are flagged for 72.5 yards per game. UNC is 3rd in FBS as they’re flagged for 30.3 yards per contest.

We’re going to use the UNC vs. Syracuse (3-4) overtime game where the Orange beat the Heels 31-30. Cuse finished 12-of-16 on money downs, while UNC went 10-of-19.

The Orange were flagged seven times for 65 yards, while the Heels were flagged three times for 20 yards. Neither team committed a turnover.

UNC PK Rece Verhoff finished 3-of-3 on PAT’s and 3-of-3 on FG’s.

UNC OFFENSE

QB Billy Edwards Jr. finished with two touchdowns on 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Heels had eight different receivers catch a pass with three hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Jordan Ship averaged 12.8 yards per catch with one TD.

On the ground UNC’s RB Jaylen McGill averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Demon June averaged 5.9 YPC with one touchdown.

The Heels O-Line allowed two sacks and three TFL’s to the Cuse defense.

Above- Truck toss worked for UNC vs. Cuse and I can see Petrino going back to it vs. Miami. The toss plays will continue until open field tackling improves.

Above- Those deep dig routes could KILL Miami who has been playing soft coverage and doesn’t have a coverage LB getting PT. The safety trio has had shaky moments as well.

Above- UNC likes to tag the slide RPO onto their run game. It’s a dangerous weapon that I love. They use a play-action boot later to toss that slide route for a TD.

Above- A nasty TFL here for Cuse. The UNC backs aren’t easy to bring down unless you just let a DT walk in and blow them up.

Above- Another MOF throw, another dig, another big play. Miami has to tighten up over the middle vs. UNC. Edwards will try to go there vs. Poyser, Day and Thornton for sure.

Above- This stretch run leads to some crazy missed tackles including one for a loss. The UNC RB’s aren’t easy to bring down while not having elite speed- kind of like Miami’s 1-2 punch of Fletcher and Mallory. Look at that open space, your last line of defense can’t be the CB.

Above- this is a simple hitch play that goes for a huge gain. CB’s have to buzz their feet, scrape and grab the backs of thighs. Running past the guy does nothing.

Above- Edwards CAN be gotten to. Miami’s pass rush has to step up and Damon Wilson in particular. He wasn’t paid huge money to show up in two games of seven.

Above- here’s that slide bootleg play for the go-ahead TD. It’s such an effective weapon for Miami and against them. Slow LB’s will make this work, as will pass catching “FB” types.

UNC DEFENSE

UNC allowed Steve Angeli to throw two touchdowns on 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Angeli only found five different receivers, but three went for double-digit yards per catch marks. Umari Hatcher averaged 25.8 yards per catch with one TD against UNC’s defense.

On the ground ‘Cuse RB Ahmad Miller averaged 4.2 yards per carry with one TD. UNC’s defense logged one sack, five TFL’s, and five PBU’s against the Orange offense.

Above- A little wide zone, cut under the TE, and run to space. I can’t wait to see Mallory vs this defense. Something I never typed re Will, but Javian has that ability.

Above- What worked for Cuse vs. UNC’s Defense? Levels. The Levels concept shouldn’t be lost on Dawson, teams run that from all systems. Getting them out in space against Upshaw and Toney should be at a premium.

Above- So UNC struggles to tackle? Sounds good. Mallory and Fletcher should have solid days vs UNC, even with their talented DL.

Above- I feel like Coach Winters in The Program but where’s that wild man? The OL lacks one right now that would grab a RB and shove the pile.

Above- I’m just going to show one of like 10 back shoulder throws that Angeli hit on the day and say where is Cooper Barkate? He’s up there with Wilson on the milk carton missing poster stuff. At least Barkate is a willing physical participant, though.

Above- Another stretchy run with a TE out there blocking. If Lofton can own his man this can really be a fun night on the ground for Mallory.

Above- I don’t want people thinking the UNC defense can’t get it done. They have talent in the front 6 to create TFL’s for sure. Miami just doesn’t surrender very many (unless it’s 4th and 1…)

Above- if you’re on your 2nd hitch up (3rd read) you have to RUN if it’s not there. The LB runs free and CLOBBERS Angeli on this one. Mensah has to feel pressure more and that no one is in their route yet.

Above- When Cuse started feeling the game come back into reach they ran HARD in the red zone. Look at the TE and OL pushing and fighting for this TD. Miami needs to get back to that with Congdon and Rodriguez teaming up for this.

Above- one thing that does worry me is Belichick seeing that Miami’s OL can’t handle twists and delayed blitzes and doing everything he can to bring four and get to Mensah.

Above- The game winning play was a rollout and slide route to the WR. SLIDE ROUTES in the red zone are deadly. Get those LB’s to make a play (QB or cover) and take what they leave.

The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from the summer was to ‘avoid self-implosion.’ The individual Canyonero Keys to Victory vs. UNC are:

1- Block. Some. Bodee. Hell, even if UNC gets three sacks it won’t kill Miami with how effective Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney have been in general but especially vs. pressure.

2- Pressure Edwards. On the flip side Miami needs to get pressure on Edwards. He can’t run but can escape. Miami needs a big game from Ahmad Moten and Marquise Lightfoot. Where’s Damon Wilson?!

3- Shutdown Jordan Shipp. He’s their go-to threat, Miami needs to lock him down and force the rest of the Heels offense to make a play. Who is Miami’s best CB right now when it comes to being a lockdown corner?

Score Prediction: Miami by 17. If Miami loses to UNC, even on a weird road tilt on Halloween night, I’ll be greatly disappointed. UNC can’t hold a candle to Miami in the talent department, and just lost to a meh as meh can get Syracuse team in OT. Miami should absolutely whip the Tar Heels.