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Four games into the NBA season, it’s fair to say we know exactly who every team is and how good every player is. NAH, I’m kidding, that’s insane. It’s only been four games… It is a good time, though, to take a look under the hood at the emerging trends and statistics for the Toronto Raptors so far this season.
Welcome to 7 Stats in 7 Days. A brand new weekly column where I dive into all the statistics that defined the Raptors’ last 7 days. Let’s dive in.
People often say that every NBA team plays the same way in the modern era. Me? I would say those people are naive. Every great NBA team has an identity. A certain ‘je ne sais quoi’ that differentiates them from the rest of the league. Their own one-of-a-kind winning formula, if you will. The Toronto Raptors? They hang their hat on the defensive side of the ball. While that in itself isn’t unique (there are plenty of good defensive teams), how they play defense separates them. The team has developed a brand of high-pressure defense that smothers ball handlers, plays high in passing lanes, and sells out for every chance to force a turnover.
Their 97.9 defensive rating is miles ahead of the second-best team, the Minnesota Timberwolves (102.5), and, if maintained over an entire season, would be the best defensive rating since the Chicago Bulls in 2011-12. Now that’s irrelevant because again, it’s only been four games, but I wanted to put in perspective how impressive it’s been.
When you boil it down, there are two ways to score more points than your opponent. You can shoot more efficiently than them, or you can shoot more than them. The Raptors certainly aren’t winning efficiency battles; they have the 5th worst effective field goal percentage in the league. Shooting more isn’t by design, it’s what they need to give themselves a chance at winning games. Manufacturing extra scoring chances has kept their offense afloat. They’re far and away ahead of the next best team, the Golden State Warriors, who are generating 5.2 extra scoring chances per game.
The high pressure defense is giving them these chances,they’re forcing 23.5 turnovers per game and eight (!!) players are averaging at least one steal per game. Kawhi Leonard looked limited through his two games, but he’s leading the team with 3.5 steals per game, followed by Scottie Barnes (2.3), Ja’Kobe Walter (2.0), Immanuel Quickley (1.3), Jamal Shead (1.3), Jamison Battle (1.3), Collin Murray-Boyles (1.0), and RJ Barrett (1.0).
Raptors have forced 20+ turnovers in 4 straight games, the longest streak to start a season since the Nuggets in 2011-12.
— Keerthika Uthayakumar (@keerthikau) October 29, 2026
Opponents have committed 94 turnovers through 4 games.
This season, the Raptors rank 29th in halfcourt offense. They’ve been quite awful at scoring against a set defense. It’s why they need to get more chances, they aren’t squeezing the juice out of each possession. One of the only players who’s been able to create consistent offense has been Barrett. He’s been the Raptors’ best offensive player, and he’s the only one showing the ability (and willingness) to get to the rim consistently. More impressive than the 8.3 rim attempts—which ranks fourth in the league behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and Zion Williamson—is the variety of ways in which he’s gotten there.
Barrett’s 15.3 drives per game lead the team, and he’s scoring 8.8 of his points off drives. What’s more impressive is how he’s improved his pick-n-roll ball handling. This season, Barrett is averaging 1.25 points per possession as a PnR ball handler, tied for sixth best in the league with former Raptor Fred VanVleet. Last season, Barrett scored just 0.93 points per possession. He’s shown that he can poke, prod, pull back, keep the dribble alive, and navigate congestion with grace, making him the Raptors’ most reliable source of offense.
rj barrett has 20 rim attempts in his last 2 games. no other raptor has more than 8. he's now 4th in the league in rim shots per game (8.3), behind only giannis, wemby, & zion. no raptor ranked in the top 25 last season
— Joe Wolfond (@joey_doubleyou) October 29, 2026
It’s no secret that Jakob Poeltl has been, well… pretty awful to start the season. His rebounding has fallen off a cliff (with a career average of seven rebounds per game, it wasn’t that impressive before), his defense leaves much to be desired, and the strangest regression has been his hands. He’s usually quite good at catching the ball on passes, loose balls, and boards, but this season, it seems he’s greasing his hands before every game. He can’t hold on to anything. When Poeltl is on the court, opponents grab more offensive rebounds, the Raptors pick up fewer offensive rebounds, and teams are shooting better at the rim. He’s not doing anything you need from your big man.
When the six-foot-seven Collin Murray-Boyles is on the court? The Raptors have a higher defensive rebounding rate and a much higher offensive rebounding rate, and teams are shooting far worse at the rim.
Most of those numbers are defense-related, but perhaps the biggest indictment of Poeltl’s play this season is the Raptors scoring efficiency through the roll man on a pick-n-roll. This season the Raptors are scoring just 0.80 points per possession via the roll man, ranked 29th in the league, whereas last season they scored 1.17 points per possession, ranked 6th best in the league.
After last season’s playoff performance, I think most, including myself, expected that Barnes would play a much more aggressive style of offense. Against the Cavaliers he bullied his way to his spots, converted at the rim, or got much deeper on his midrange jumpshots. This season, he’s been settling for long midrange jumpshots far too often, particularly in the first three games of the season. According to Cleaning the Glass, Barnes is shooting 27% of his total shot attempts from the long midrange, a drastic uptick from shooting 12% of his shots from the same location last season. What’s been most alarming is the rate at which these shots are cutting into his share of rim and short mid-range attempts, shots that have been his bread and butter throughout his career.
According to databallr, Barnes is shooting 5.0 long mid-range jumpshots per game, sitting just behind a true midrange sniper in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2). Barnes’ efficiency is lagging significantly behind at 35.0% compared to 54.8%.
Against the Orlando Magic, Barnes did a much better job getting to the rim, but in the first three games he settled heavily, it was the primary reason he scored 0 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Look at these shot charts:
This one caught me off guard. Walter is having a fantastic start to the season, his defense has been incredible, and he’s shooting 40.7% on his threes this season. The fact that the one shot he’s unable to convert on is the wide open one is kind of funny. With the closest defender 6+ feet away, Walter is making just 15.4% of his three-point attempts. With a defender within 4-6 feet, he’s shooting 58.3%, and with a defender within 2-4 feet, he’s shooting 100%. I expect that will regulate, but it’s a fun example of a small sample trend.
Now, you may be saying, ‘What the heck does that even mean?’
Location effective field goal percentage (eFG) is a statistic that measures the efficiency of shots the Raptors are giving up to their opponents. Cleaning the Glass defines it succinctly: “If this team allowed the league average FG% from each location, what would their opponents’ effective FG% be?” For the shots the Raptors give up, opponents are expected to have a 54.8% eFG Opponents are actually shooting 48.8% eFG against the team, meaning they’re either really good at making teams miss shots, or they’ve been lucky. As those numbers normalize, the Raptors are going to have to find ways to give up lower-efficiency shots, they’re currently giving up the fifth most rim attempts and 14th most three-point attempts.
The season is young, and a lot of this is obviously small sample size bias, so don’t take too much away from it, but it’ll be interesting to track and follow along as the season goes on. For now, we’ll just hope that they can continue the trend of beating the Orlando Magic.