The inaugural Nations Championship resumes at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin with Ireland hosting Argentina on Friday evening.

The top line

There’s a lot of history every time Ireland play Argentina, whether it be in an autumn Test or stretching back into the annals of the Rugby World Cup. If we just look at the subplots ahead on Friday night, there’s the Dublin hoodoo, where Argentina have played eleven times and won none; we have the Felipe Contepomi homecoming, a return to the Aviva Stadium, somewhere he both played for and led Leinster with pride. As an undercurrent, we have Andy Farrell saying that Ireland aren’t World Cup contenders yet, and this is the first step of the 12-month road to Australia 2027.

However, underneath all that, the Argentinian record is slightly worse than one might first perceive: no wins in 11 capped Tests in Ireland, but, on the other side of the ledger, they’re three from five in Argentina. However, the broader record shows three from four at neutral venues, leaving an overall total of 14 versus six in Ireland’s favour. Going back to memorable games, in 1990 Ireland won by two points at the old Lansdowne Road, followed by a 21-19 victory in 2004 and a 22-19 victory against a very good Los Pumas side in 2024. Contepomi, the ex-Leinster player and coach, was on the winning side against Ireland, coming off the bench as a player at the World Cup in 1999 in Lens, and then in 2007 in Paris, facing five of his Leinster clubmates; he scored 11 points in an Argentina win there.

Ireland’s year so far has shown some good wins on the road, 33-31 against Australia and again against Japan, winning 36-20, but they’ll be worried about the points they haemorrhaged at Eden Park back in July, when they were on the end of a 40-21 hiding. Argentina’s year shows a 38-47 loss to Scotland in Córdoba in a very exciting game, but a great win against Wales, 35-21, and then a loss against England in the infamous endless game, 31-24. There are 12 changes from the draw against Australia, and Contepomi has gone on record as acknowledging that they’d lost more than they’d won, something many would regard as a backwards step for this proud rugby nation.

The context for this block for Ireland is Argentina, Fiji and South Africa back-to-back at the Aviva, and then hopefully the finals weekend, where they’ll be looking to lift their qualifying place to one of the top two or top four sides within the Nations Championship. In short, it’s a game they can ill afford to lose.

Where the game will be won

The deciding factors will be all around who delivers the basics best: the power and continuity of the hosts’ scrum and the other element of modern Test rugby set pieces, the often maligned aerial battle.

Ireland have got an all-new back-row trio, where Nick Timoney has finally overcome a long-running selection battle with Josh van der Flier on the openside flank through industry and compelling performances for Ulster. Sean Jansen makes his second Test start with Caelan Doris and Jack Conan both out, and Ryan Baird, back after a year with two leg fractures, takes his place on the blindside. They’ll be up against one of the most formidable and sizeable back rows in Test match rugby, as Juan Martín González, Marcos Kremer and Pablo Matera look to exact revenge and to dominate the breakdown.

The balance of the Los Pumas trio is quite exceptional: Kremer the enforcer, Matera the warrior and González the craftsman, all three of them bringing varieties of skills and abilities to that all-action back row. One for the back-row purists amongst you who like debating shirt numbers: Argentina, like France, prefer a left and right flank combination to an open and blind combination, and their flankers stay on their own, singular side of the scrum throughout, whereas Ireland’s will move to open and blind sides to suit the moment.

Neither of the back rows particularly has a jackal threat; both have a lot of aerial ability, so expect to see a lot of kick-chasing from the back rows, with control of the drop zone from the players behind them. With Ireland picking Craig Casey and Sam Prendergast, who’s now fit after a wrist injury, and with Argentina picking Gonzalo García and Tomás Albornoz, we can expect to see a lot of aerial balls hoisted high into the Dublin sky and a fierce aerial contest that may well decide the match.

Shaun Edwards will be running the Los Pumas defence, and you can expect to see a hard and fast blitz controlled by the 13 channel. However, Ireland might just have an ace card in their front row, with Andrew Porter back after a year, Dan Sheehan skippering the side and Tadhg Furlong free of any suspension overhang. An all-Lions trio, they know each other’s games better than they know their families’ birthdays, and given recent press around Furlong’s clearout antics and Porter’s scrummaging legality, the all-Leinster unit will be out to prove a point against a Pumas side that has been searching for a competitive tighthead for a number of seasons now.

In 2024, Ireland led 22-9 at the break, and Argentina put in a phenomenal second-half performance to close Ireland out on the scoreboard and almost match them as the game closed out. Expect to see this one go right down to the line.

What they said

Andy Farrell has been unusually restrained about his side’s chances and has played down any talk of deserving a win. Some of the elder statesmen of the Irish side perhaps have not been performing to the level that’s expected within an elite Irish group. Farrell went on record as saying: “If ever a player feels comfortable, we’re failing the group.”

He went on to say that, where they are right now, they won’t be winning a World Cup, but the challenge ahead excites him, and to that end he’s looking to improve and to augment the team and the players that he’s had around him for so long. Farrell also backed Craig Casey, saying that he deserved a big game and that this week’s responsibility was on his shoulders to run the match with Sam Prendergast at half-back.

Contepomi pointed out that the Irish challenge means something to them, because they’re the only team they’ve not beaten away from home, and that would mean a huge amount to this Los Pumas group, but the focus right now is being competitive against the third-ranked team in the world. Contepomi also confirmed that, once Shaun Edwards was available, Edwards’s agent had been in contact with him, and the Argentine union had been prepared to back the move.

Players to watch

At half-back, Craig Casey makes a big start; he’s gathered most of his caps from the bench, whilst Sean Jansen enjoys his second start. Returning after a year out, it’s great to see Mack Hansen back after foot surgery, and Ireland will go absolutely large in that aerial battle, with Casey’s kicking from the base a really important part of that philosophy.

It’s great to see one of the world’s finest utility players, Juan Cruz Mallía, back after a whole year out with the hideous ACL injury that he suffered at Twickenham a year ago; he scored in the corresponding fixture in Dublin in 2024, but his workload the following season, where he played some 42 matches, many in the Top 14 where his versatility was enthusiastically deployed by Stade Toulousain, was simply too much for his frame to bear, and Tom Curry’s tackle, described by Contepomi as bullying, finished off what that workload had started.

Marcos Kremer and Julián Montoya return, and Santiago Chocobares, surely one of the best 12s in the game, comes back after a head injury issue with Toulouse. He and Justo Piccardo form a sizeable and swift midfield that will challenge everything that Stuart McCloskey and Robbie Henshaw do in opposition against them.

Main head-to-head

The battle at 10 is one for the purists. Sam Prendergast has come in for a lot of criticism for his speed of foot movement and his lack of pace in the 10 channel. Word is that he’s hardened up physically and put a few kilos on in the gym, something that will be really tested down the 10 channel by some of the big Argentinian carries. You can also bet your bottom dollar that Shaun Edwards will be asking his back row, led by González, to fly up and out at him from first-phase possession, and it will be interesting to see how deep Prendergast goes in order to protect his own quality of ball, something that he’s been roundly criticised for in the past.

Against him, there’s the mercurial Tomás Albornoz, who’s led RC Toulon’s resurgence since they dispensed with the services of Pierre Mignoni, and who will orchestrate everything in light blue and white. Albornoz, with his wonderful left foot and lethal first ten gas, is one of the best 10s in the world; make no mistake about that, and his ability to get his kick-chasers into the game is out of the top drawer. Whichever of these two fine young 10s comes out on top will do a lot in deciding the fortunes of their team.

Prediction

The compelling factor in our prediction is the dominance, or perceived potential dominance, of the Irish front row. Argentina were schooled by England in July, and that beefy threat that the Los Pumas front rows of yore had no longer exists. Ireland’s home record of 11 from 11, combined with Argentina’s inconsistency and Ireland’s brilliant win down in Sydney in July, all points to a thumping home victory, and we think Ireland will run rampant in the second half, which is something they didn’t do in 2024, to run out winners by 36-21.

But don’t discount Los Pumas; their midfield is one of the best in Test rugby, and nobody in the game will ever underestimate the power and passion of that brilliant back row, and it’s fair to say that there’s a pretty inexperienced combination up against them. It all boils down to if their set piece can provide a platform, and it’s our view that Ireland have a considerable advantage there that will prove to be the deciding factor. Ireland by 15.

The teams

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan (c), 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Tom O’Toole, 18 Sam Illo, 19 James Ryan, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Ciaran Frawley, 23 Bundee Aki

Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Justo Piccardo, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Tomás Albornoz, 9 Gonzalo Garcia, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martín González, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Moreno, 2 Julián Montoya, 1 Boris Wenger
Replacements: 16 Leonel Oviedo, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Efrain Elias, 20 Juan Martin Scelzo, 21 Simón Benítez Cruz, 22 Gerónimo Prisciantelli, 23 Lucio Cinti

Date: Friday, 6 November 2026
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 20:10 (local), 20:10 (UK), 21:10 (France), 22:10 (South Africa), 07:10 (7 November, AEDT), 09:10 (7 November, New Zealand), 17:10 (Argentina), 05:10 (7 November, JST), 15:10 (EST)
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Hollie Davidson (SRU) and Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
FPRO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
Broadcasters: Virgin Media Television (Republic of Ireland), ITV / ITVX (United Kingdom), SuperSport (South Africa / Africa), TF1 (France), Sky Italia (Italy), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), Sky Sport (New Zealand), FloSports (USA), Wowow (Japan)

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Recent meetings

2024: Ireland 22-19 Argentina (Dublin)
2021: Ireland 53-7 Argentina (Dublin)
2018: Ireland 28-17 Argentina (Dublin)
2017: Ireland 28-19 Argentina (Dublin)
2015: Ireland 20-43 Argentina (RWC quarter-final, Cardiff)

World Cup meetings
1999 Lens, quarter-final play-off: Argentina 28-24
2003 Adelaide, pool: Ireland 16-15
2007 Paris, pool: Argentina 30-15. Ireland out in the pool stage for the first time.
2015 Cardiff, quarter-final: Argentina 43-20