Real Sociedad approach this crucial Copa del Rey second leg at Anoeta with a slender 1-0 aggregate lead over Athletic Club, having secured a vital away victory at San Mamés. Sociedad have maintained momentum with a recent 1-0 league win, showcasing their ability to control matches through superior passing accuracy and tactical discipline. Athletic Club, despite averaging higher shot volumes, struggle with finishing and must take risks to overturn the deficit, potentially exposing themselves to Sociedad's effective counter-attacks. The match promises a tactical battle with Sociedad aiming to protect their lead and Athletic pushing forward under pressure in a high-stakes Basque derby atmosphere.

The model rates Real Sociedad's chances highly at 70%, reflecting their aggregate lead, home advantage, and superior passing accuracy that enables control under pressure. Athletic Club's higher shot volume is offset by poor finishing and a riskier disciplinary profile, which could be decisive in a tight knockout setting. Sociedad's recent form, including back-to-back 1-0 wins, supports a low-scoring, controlled victory. The model flags no price warning, indicating the 2.1 offer genuine value given the tactical and statistical context. This pick balances the defensive strength and game management Sociedad have demonstrated with Athletic's finishing struggles.

Real Sociedad's tactical discipline and ability to control possession at Anoeta make them favorites to secure the win and progress. Their recent narrow victories and superior passing accuracy contrast with Athletic Club's finishing struggles, suggesting Sociedad can manage the match tempo effectively while limiting Athletic's scoring chances.