Opta’s supercomputer has given Tottenham just a 22.6% chance of beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side will be looking to end an eight-year wait for a victory at the ground, having finally secured their first Premier League win of the season on Monday.

Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea favourites against Tottenham

According to Opta’s latest Premier League predictions, Chelsea have a 53.6% chance of claiming all three points against Spurs. A draw has been given a 23.8% probability, with Tottenham backed to win just 22.6% of the simulations.

Chelsea currently sit fourth in the Premier League table, having collected 13 points from their opening seven matches. Tottenham, meanwhile, are 16th with six points after their 3-1 victory over Coventry City ended a six-game winless start to the campaign.

The Blues have won their last two league matches, beating Bournemouth 5-1 and Everton 2-0. Spurs will certainly have their work cut out against Xabi Alonso’s side, particularly given how difficult they have found this fixture over the years.

Tottenham’s Stamford Bridge record makes grim reading

Tottenham have won just once in their last 36 league visits to Stamford Bridge, with that solitary victory coming back in April 2018. Christian Eriksen scored a superb equaliser that afternoon before Dele Alli struck twice to secure a memorable 3-1 victory under Mauricio Pochettino.

Since then, Spurs have failed to win any of their eight Premier League visits, losing six and drawing twice. Chelsea have also won each of the last six league meetings between the two London rivals.

Tottenham’s last nine Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge

There is another concerning statistic for Tottenham from those results. Since their 2018 victory, Spurs have scored just four goals in eight Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge and failed to find the net on five occasions.

The most recent defeat came in May, when Tottenham lost 2-1 to Chelsea despite needing just a point to secure their Premier League status. De Zerbi will hope his side can produce a much better result this weekend.

Chelsea’s defensive record offers Tottenham some encouragement

Despite their impressive attacking form, Chelsea have not been particularly convincing at the back this season. The Blues have scored 17 goals in seven Premier League matches but have also conceded 13, with last weekend’s victory over Everton producing their first clean sheet of the campaign.

That should offer Tottenham some encouragement, particularly given their struggles to score at Stamford Bridge in recent years. Spurs have managed just six league goals this season, although three came in Monday’s victory over Coventry.

There is also the matter of Chelsea’s recent record in London derbies, with the Blues losing just once in their last 16 Premier League home meetings against fellow London sides. Tottenham, meanwhile, have lost six consecutive league London derbies and will be hoping to avoid extending that unwanted run.

Roberto De Zerbi has already won at Stamford Bridge

One positive for Spurs is that De Zerbi knows what it takes to win at Stamford Bridge, having done so during his time in charge of Brighton. The Italian guided the Seagulls to a 2-1 victory over Chelsea in April 2023, with Danny Welbeck and Julio Enciso scoring after the hosts had taken the lead.

De Zerbi has faced Chelsea six times during his managerial career, winning twice and losing four. He will now be hoping to become the first Tottenham manager since Pochettino to lead Spurs to a Premier League victory at Stamford Bridge.