I think we all want to forget about the blowout loss to Iowa last weekend. I'm sure the players, and especially Wisconsin football head coach Luke Fickell, would like to. Playing the Hawkeyes on Halloween was fitting, considering Iowa has haunted this program in embarrassing fashion ever since Fickell took over.

Before the Badgers' loss to Iowa, they were back in the rankings for the first time since Week 2 of 2023, with the national perception that they were a team on the rise, sitting at 5-2 overall after dominating No. 16 USC the week before.

Should Luke Fickell be back on the hot seat?

Normally, one loss wouldn't be enough to completely switch the conversation about a coach's job outlook. But this loss feels different.

The defeat drops Fickell to 0-4 against Iowa during his tenure at Wisconsin. The worst part about it is how uncompetitive the Badgers have been in the series as of late. The Hawkeyes have outscored the Badgers 124-16 in those four games.

While Iowa is a solid program that consistently wins games, even with major changes to the college football landscape, getting blown out three years in a row is flat-out unacceptable at Wisconsin. Not having your team prepared for one of the biggest games on the schedule each year is a fundamental failure.

At the start of the season, the popular question was simple. How many wins does Fickell need to keep his job? I didn't think it was that black-and-white. It isn't necessarily about how many games they won, but which games they won.

I'll give credit where credit's due: wins over Penn State on the road and USC at home showed us this program is making progress. A year or two ago, those would have been losses. Playing close with Notre Dame in Week 1 was encouraging, even with the wheels falling off in the second half.
The loss to UCLA doesn't look too bad right now, as the Bruins are still undefeated and ranked 8th in the country. West Coast games are notoriously difficult. Again, it happens.

Entering late October, with their record at a solid and respectable 5-2 overall, 3-1 in the Big Ten, and ranked for the first time since 2023, the talk about Fickell being on the hot seat wasn't even a conversation anymore.

But we know in Madison, success is measured not only in wins, but by trophy games. When we go back and talk about which games he needed to win no matter what, it's the games against Iowa and Minnesota. Before this season, the Badgers were 0-3 against Iowa under Fickell and 1-2 against Minnesota. Failing to win, or at least compete, against your two rivals in the conference makes whatever progress you make elsewhere in the season seem minuscule.

The biggest game of the season is looming

Luckily for Fickell, the Badgers have three very winnable games before their showdown with Minnesota in the regular-season finale, which should cool his seat a bit. But even if the Badgers go 3-0 over the next three games, the future of Fickell and this program hinges on the outcome of the game with the Minnesota Gophers in the regular-season finale.

If the Badgers lose to Minnesota and the Gophers retain the Axe while Wisconsin's trophy case remains empty once again, Shawn Eichorst will have a massive decision to make.

Does he give Fickell and this staff another year based solely on the progress in the win column, or does Fickell's inability to win rivalry games give him a chance for a clean break to find his own guy to run the program?

The next three weeks matter for record and bowl positioning, but the defining game of the season for Fickell and this program awaits in Week 14, when the Minnesota Golden Gophers come to Camp Randall.