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As you've undoubtedly heard a few hundred times over the past couple of months, it is eventually going to be a very atypical offseason for Major League Baseball.
For another month until the inevitable lockout, though, it's still offseason business as usual. And one of the first mile markers in every offseason is the window in which teams extend qualifying offers to free agents-to-be.
We'll discuss shortly what a qualifying offer is, how much it is and who is eligible to receive one, but teams have until Monday afternoon to extend said offers.
We see 10 players as relatively obvious candidates for a QO.
How likely is it that they'll get one, though?
And will they accept or reject the offer?
Major League Baseball's qualifying offer is a one-year proposal that a team can make to a player from its roster who is about to become a free agent. The value is determined as the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players from the just-completed season. This year, that figure is $23.15M.
Teams have until 5 p.m. ET on Nov. 2 to make qualifying offers. Players who receive one will have until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 17 to make their decision.
If the player accepts the offer, huzzah, one more year with the same team.
If the player declines the qualifying offer and ultimately signs with a new team, his previous team receives a compensatory draft pick. Where that draft pick lands depends on whether the team contributes to or benefits from revenue sharing and whether they paid a competitive balance tax. How much the player signs for in free agency can also affect the draft pick.
There are two key restrictions, though.
If the player has previously received a qualifying offer—regardless of which team extended that previous offer—he is ineligible to receive another one. Per Spotrac, there are 27 such players this year, including Michael King, Bo Bichette and Nick Martinez, who otherwise would have been top candidates for one.
Also, a qualifying offer can only be extended to a player if he spent the entire season with his current team. In other words, no one who was traded mid-season—i.e. Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes or Luis Arraez—can receive a qualifying offer.
Because of those restrictions, we might only see a few offers extended this year.
For what it's worth, there were 13 qualifying offers last offseason, four of which—Brandon Woodruff, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres and Shota Imanaga—were accepted. (Five, actually, if you want to count Zac Gallen, who initially declined the qualifying offer, but ended up later agreeing to a one-year deal at last year's qualifying offer price of $22.025M.) Prior to that, though, only 14 out of 144 qualifying offers were accepted.
Now, let's talk candidates, in alphabetical order by last name.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Even before this season, Randy Arozarena was already one of the more valuable position players in baseball. The 2021 AL Rookie of the Year (and viral star of the 2020 postseason) was a .249 hitter from 2021-25, racking up at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in each of those five seasons.
This year, though, he kicked it up a notch. Arozarena set career-best marks (in seasons of at least 25 games) in each of batting average (.281), on-base percentage (.381) and slugging percentage (.484). He also led the American League in runs scored (113) while hitting 26 dingers and swiping 26 bags.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: 100 percent
Simply put, if only one player receives a qualifying offer this week, it's going to be Arozarena. After filtering out the players who are ineligible to receive one, he is hands down the most coveted free agent in this cycle.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 0 percent
Whether he ultimately clears $23.15M with his AAV in free agency remains to be seen, but Arozarena (who turns 32 in February) is almost certainly headed for a four-year or five-year deal in free agency, very likely north of $100M in total. There's no chance he's leaving that on the table to stick with Seattle for one more year.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Jake Bauers just had an "out of nowhere" campaign for the ages.
In his first two seasons with the Brewers (2024 and 2025), he was the left-handed half of a platoon situation with Rhys Hoskins at first base, as well as a frequent pinch hitter with an unremarkable .696 OPS. He entered 2026 with a career bWAR of minus-1.2.
But he became one of the most important pieces of the World Champs, both because of his team-leading 26 home runs and .874 OPS and because of his excellent defense at first base.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: 60 percent
Bauers is absolutely headed for a pay raise after making just $2.7M in 2026. An 850 percent increase, though? That might be tough for Milwaukee to justify, regardless of how crucial he was to their cause this season. However, if they're reasonably confident he will turn down the QO and they can get a draft pick out of losing him, why not?
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 30 percent
On the open market, Bauers should fetch close to a $15M salary on a three-year or four-year deal. If Milwaukee is willing and able to offer him something in that ballpark, you have to love the chances of him staying put. It wouldn't be surprising, though, to see him turn down $23M in pursuit of closer to $60M, even if it's on a lower salary.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
In five of the past six seasons, David Bednar has been one of the best relievers in baseball. We're talking a sub-2.70 ERA and sub-2.70 FIP in each of those seasons, as well as a cumulative K/9 north of 11. And in eight career appearances in the postseason, he has a 1.00 ERA.
Even with a very disappointing 2024 campaign factored into the data, he has been a clear-cut top 10 reliever since the beginning of 2021 and figures to be the most coveted bullpen arm in free agency this winter.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: At least 95 percent
New York's bullpen situation is looking rough heading into the offseason, slated to lose just about every high-leverage reliever they had in 2026. They're going to at least try to keep their closer for $23.15M, as it will likely cost more than that to replace him, either in dollars on a different free agent or in prospects in a trade.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: Less than 10 percent
Josh Hader got a five-year, $95M deal three winters ago. Tanner Scott got a four-year, $72M deal during the 2024-25 offseason. Edwin Díaz has twice signed multi-year contracts with an AAV in excess of $20M. And with 143 saves over the past half-decade, Bednar should be able to command something in the 3-4 years, $18M-$20M AAV ballpark. Hard to imagine he won't decline this QO to pursue that bigger payday.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Even in what was a disappointing walk year by his standards, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s value added is undeniable. He had 19 home runs and 41 stolen bases and easily could have been named a finalist for the AL 2B Gold Glove award.
Since the beginning of 2024, that brings his totals to 74 home runs and 112 stolen bases—totals almost identical to Bobby Witt Jr.'s marks of 73 and 114, respectively, even though Chisholm has 344 fewer plate appearances during that time.
Granted, that is otherwise an apples and oranges comparison, with Witt the vastly superior defender while also boasting an .880 OPS to Chisholm's .761. But second basemen with 30/30 potential don't exactly grow on trees.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: Less than 10 percent
There's no rule prohibiting a team from extending multiple qualifying offers in the same year. In fact, the Cubs, Padres and Phillies each had two last offseason. But most in the know seem to believe the Yankees will give David Bednar a qualifying offer while declining to extend one to Chisholm. Simply put, they don't need him with middle infielders George Lombard Jr., Anthony Volpe and José Caballero all returning.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: Almost zero percent
Back in February, Chisholm was talking about seeking a $35M salary on an 8-10 year deal, putting his self-valuation at $280M-$350M in free agency. While there's no chance he'll sniff those numbers after the year he just had, there's also no chance he'd settle for $23.15M without at least finding out what his market looks like.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
After nine consecutive seasons with an OPS of at least .757, Ian Happ had a bit of a disappointing year at the dish, striking out more than ever before (189 K) and batting just .218.
He did still hit 24 home runs, though, going for at least 21 HR and 66 RBI for the fifth time in six years. He's also a finalist for what would be his fifth consecutive Gold Glove in left field.
All told, he has been worth 16.1 fWAR since the beginning of 2022, good for top 20 among outfielders.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: 49 percent
This might be the toughest call of them all. Not only do the Cubs also have Seiya Suzuki as an outfielder who is indisputably even more deserving of a QO, but they need to put in quite a bit of work on their pitching staff this winter. That makes it feel slightly more likely than not that they just let Happ explore free agency without attaching any draft pick compensation to him.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 20 percent
Even if he doesn't expect to fetch a $23M salary in free agency, at 32 years old already, this might be Happ's last chance to cash in on a multi-year deal. Given his great defense and his proven consistency as a 20+ homer type of guy, it's plausible he could get a second helping of the three-year, $61M contract he just finished up.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Since the beginning of 2023, there have been four players who primarily play catcher, who have tallied at least 1,600 plate appearances and who have an OPS of at least .780. They are Cal Raleigh, William Contreras, Will Smith and Ryan Jeffers.
Jeffers' consistent production at the plate has flown a bit below the radar because he doesn't hit that many home runs. But he is the creme de la creme of backstops in this winter's class of free agents, if the Twins let him get there.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: 80 percent
This would be closer to 100 percent if the Twins weren't allergic to spending money. But this is somewhat of a do-or-die year for them in terms of the sheer volume of key players who will hit free agency next offseason. If they don't even extend Jeffers a QO, they might as well also put Joe Ryan, Pablo López and others on the trade block while they're at it.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 20 percent
If Jeffers gets a QO and declines it, history says to expect a five-year deal in free agency. Only five catchers have received and declined a qualifying offer, and four of them—Willson Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Russell Martin and Brian McCann—subsequently inked five-year contracts. And if the Yankees are unable to trade for either Shea Langeliers or Hunter Goodman, they might get desperate enough to make Jeffers a substantial offer.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Brandon Lowe had 35 home runs, 96 RBI and an .824 OPS at second base for the Pirates in 2026, and it wasn't even his most impressive season as a big leaguer.
Heck, for his career, Lowe has an .810 OPS and has averaged 35 home runs and 98 RBI on a 162-games basis. Staying healthy was his struggle for a while in the 2022-24 timeframe, but with 284 games played (and 282 hits to show for it) over the past two seasons, that's much less of a concern than it used to be.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: At least 90 percent
As is, the largest AAV in Pirates history is the $15.55M mark on their nine-year, $140M extension with Konnor Griffin. Even on a one-year deal, going to $23.15M for one player would represent a brave new world in Pittsburgh. But how could they justify not at least trying to bring back Lowe after a season in which he was their most valuable player by a pretty wide margin?
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 35 percent
Lowe is already 32 years old and has the misfortune of hitting free agency in a year when the market is oversaturated with quality, younger second basemen. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez and Gleyber Torres are all expected to be available, none of whom has yet celebrated turning 30—and there simply aren't that many teams likely to invest a ton of money at second base. I do think he declines the QO and can reasonably expect around $60M on a three-year deal, but it wouldn't exactly be a stunner if he takes this offer.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
In qualifying offer history, 10 relief pitchers have received one. All 10—Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano—were already well-established closers.
So, if Adrián Morejón does receive one with just eight career saves, it'd be a bit of an historic moment.
Over the past three years, however, he has been the most dominant reliever in all of baseball, save for Mason Miller, Cade Smith and maybe Jhoan Duran.
He isn't a closer yet, but it's very likely he is going to be treated as a closer in contract negotiations.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: 40 percent
In a different roster situation, this could be as high as 100 percent. That's how valuable Morejón has been. However, what the Padres desperately need is not more bullpen arms, but starting pitching. And if they get stuck holding a $23.15M bag for a set-up guy for Miller, it'll make it that much harder for them to secure another quality arm for the rotation. They may well extend Morejón a QO, but mostly hoping for the draft pick.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: 55 percent
For a reliever who made $3.9M this past season and who isn't already a closer, turning down a guaranteed $23.15M could be tough. Established forces like Hader and Díaz had no problem doing so, knowing they'd get close to that on an annual basis on a new contract. But how confident is Morejón that an offer of 4+ years at a salary of $15M+ is waiting for him? Especially with all of the uncertainty for Dec. 2 and beyond? He just might take the one-year offer before trying to work on an extension. (And if that happens, get ready for all of the Mason Miller trade speculating.)
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
There was a seven-start stretch this spring in which Trevor Rogers couldn't string together outs, amassing an ERA slightly north of 10.00 during a run of seven consecutive team losses.
Even with that rough patch included—and even after missing most of the first two months of 2025—Rogers has a 3.16 ERA and a 7.3 fWAR since the beginning of 2025, ranking 17th among all pitchers in the latter department, just barely behind both Cam Schlittler and Drew Rasmussen.
When this southpaw is on, not many are better.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: Close to 100 percent
Getting Rogers to stick around for one more season sure would save the Orioles a lot of trouble this offseason, as they otherwise arguably need to trade for a different short-term, ace-caliber pitcher while they wait for their trio of top pitching prospects to hopefully become fixtures in the starting rotation within the next two years. $23.15M would be the second-highest AAV they've ever given a player, behind only the $31M AAV they signed Pete Alonso to last winter. But they have to at least try.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: Less than 5 percent
Given his injury history and inconsistent performance, a nine-figure contract offer is hardly guaranteed to come Rogers' way. But it might. At any rate, he hasn't even turned 29 yet, which is relevant in a "best available starting pitchers" pecking order that also includes Michael King and Clay Holmes in advance of their age-32 and age-34 seasons, respectively. Rogers should be able to get at least a three-year deal, and possibly even five years at around $20M apiece.
Why He's a Candidate for Qualifying Offer
Seiya Suzuki picked one heck of a time to put together the best season of his career, finishing out a five-year, $85M contract with a bang.
On offense, it was pretty much business as usual. His .841 OPS was almost identical to what he did in both 2023 (.842) and 2024 (.848). With 26 home runs and 86 RBI, it was also his fourth consecutive year with at least 20 and 73, respectively.
But after spending four years as a bit of a liability in right field, there's a chance he'll win the Gold Glove for his work in 2026.
He got overshadowed a bit (OK, a lot) as we all fawned over Pete Crow-Armstrong's NL MVP campaign, but Suzuki was a borderline top 20 position player in MLB this season.
Likelihood of Receiving Qualifying Offer: Probably 100 percent
The Cubs presumably aren't too interested in re-upping with Suzuki on another five-year deal. But if they can bring him back for one more season for not all that much more than what they had been paying him? They'd take that in a heartbeat.
Likelihood of Accepting Offer, If Extended: Probably zero percent
Suzuki turned 32 in August and probably isn't going to come all that close to the five-year, $150M contract that Kyle Schwarber signed at the same age last winter. But four years for $100M or even $110M is entirely feasible on the open market, given how consistently well he has hit the ball throughout his MLB career to date.
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