JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Indianapolis Colts are far from a premiere matchup on a big stage for Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence; he will get that in four days in Baltimore.

But coming out of the bye week, a surging Lawrence has a chance to do two important things for an early-season MVP case that has been building over the last one-and-a-half seasons under head coach Liam Coen: win and throw touchdowns.

A win over the Colts would put the Jaguars at 5-2 entering a primetime matchup with Lamar Jackson and a good Ravens team in four days. If the Jaguars take care of business, they could be 6-2 within the next few days. But that starts with a clash with the Colts, and Lawrence could be the prime benefactor from a strong Jaguars' performance.

Lawrence vs. the Colts

The primary question is whether the Colts will blitz Trevor Lawrence or not. The Colts are one of the lowest blitz-rated teams in the NFL, blitzing on just 23.5% of dropbacks (No. 28 in the NFL). The Colts did rank No. 10 in 2025, and their two-highest blitz gameplans were their two games against the Jaguars and Lawrence.

Lawrence made the Colts pay against the blitz last year, though, and the Colts and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo have mostly stuck with four-man pass-rushes to get after the quarterback. Perhaps that changes with injuries in the secondary and the departure of DeForest Buckner and decides to just throw everything and the kitchen sink at Lawrence.

Colts send three into the A-gaps to be sure a free rusher comes down the pipe.

Still not sure how Lawrence got this much on this ball with this throwing motion. A true flick of the wrist. pic.twitter.com/zWdhWkpVNR

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 29, 2025

"It's more just, okay, how do Lou and those guys want to either protect or attack in a lot of ways? Are they going to play it a little bit more safe and sound and let those guys go play football and play coverage and be able to do those things? Or is it like, we're going to heat you up and here we go? We're going to apply the pressure regardless of who's in, put our guys in the back end in some difficult spots, but hey, we're just going to go attack," Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said Friday.

"I think it'll probably end up being a balance of both of those things, just knowing some of the personality of those guys and what they want to get done on defense. It can create some challenge because you're like, all right, you're trying to create matchups and get the best matchups when you're not exactly sure who's going to be in there."

But no matter what the Colts do, it feels like there is a good chance Lawrence is able to attack them through the air. Lawrence has had some of the best games of his career against the Colts, and this includes his performance against them in Week 14 in the Jaguars' statement 36-19 win that saw them really take control of the AFC South.

According to NextGenStats, Lawrence has posted a 119.1 passer rating when not blitzed this season, the highest among qualified passers, with 11 touchdown passes (tied for the most).

In addition, Lawrence has been pressured on 27.4% of his dropbacks without a blitz (5th-lowest), while the Colts have generated pressure on 24.4% of opponent dropbacks this season, the lowest rate in the NFL and the lowest by a defense in a season since at least 2018. The Colts 58 pressures on defense is the fewest in the NFL this season, and they're the only defense with fewer than 60 pressures.

When Lawrence has struggled at times in the Coen era has been when the pressure rate has been high. Lawrence's two worst performances by EPA/Dropback this season were in Weeks 5 and 2, and those were also the games with his two-highest pressure rates. The same trend followed in 2025: When the Jaguars kept Lawrence clean, he carved defenses up.

There is reason to believe the Jaguars can get that done on Sunday. If they do, we could be in store for a vintage Lawrence performance that once again puts the Jaguars over the top in the AFC South. The Jaguars can start carving their way to a high seed in the AFC during the next 11 weeks, but it must start in Week 8 against a vulnerable Colts team.

Lawrence's MVP case right now is clear. The Jaguars would put themselves right in the thick of things for the AFC's No. 1 seed with a string of wins over the next few weeks, and Lawrence currently ranks No. 7 in EPA/Play and No. 10 in success rate amongst quarterbacks. He is the productive leader of a high-scoring offense that is winning more often than they lose, which is an MVP case any year.

If Lawrence is throwing three or four touchdowns in a statement home win, nobody will care that the Colts are hosting a fire sale. They will care that he is continuing to play the best football of his career before a big game against the Ravens.