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Amid a two-game losing streak, the North Carolina Tar Heels need a win on Saturday against UConn.
That's especially the case, considering the Tar Heels are 4-4 with four games remaining in the season. Just a couple of weeks ago, North Carolina seemed in a favorable position to qualify for bowl eligibility, heading into a favorable matchup against Syracuse at 4-2. Now, it’s in legitimate danger of missing out on postseason play.
Nonetheless, the Tar Heels' postseason aspirations are hanging in the balance heading into Saturday. With that in mind, here are confidence levels in North Carolina's coaching, offense, and defense in this matchup against UConn.
Unlike last week, the Tar Heels aren't completely outmatched in this coaching battle. Bill Belichick's pedigree as a legendary head coach is intact, but that has taken a hit over the last two years. That said, Belichick has kept this team afloat despite multiple off-field developments impacting the coaching staff and front office.
Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has made an immediate impact since taking over as the primary play-caller. Petrino has elevated the offense by utilizing pre-snap motion, various personnel groupings, and exotic route combinations - all features that were absent from last season's operation. With Belichick overseeing the defense and Petrino's influence on the offense, the Tar Heels have an advantage in coaching.
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The Huskies' defense is an all-around vulnerable unit, allowing 25.3 points per game (76th in FBS), 249.1 passing yards per game (115th in FBS), and 139.9 rushing yards per game (68th in FBS). They have also tallied 14 sacks (93rd in FBS) and four interceptions.
When Billy Edwards Jr. is kept upright and allowed to navigate the field in a clean pocket, he can pick apart defenses. That hasn't always been the case due to poor protection or self-inflicted mistakes. For the first time this season, in last week's 38-35 loss to Miami, Edwards Jr. played at a high level through all four quarters. The veteran signal caller has an opportunity to replicate that performance against an underwhelming secondary.
In terms of the rushing attack, this should be a matchup the backfield should exploit. In Week 9, Benjamin Hall, Jaylen McGill, and Demon June combined for 69 yards on 21 carries (3.3 yards per attempt). Petrino wants to establish the run, and this is certainly a game in which North Carolina can do that.
This is an area of the game that could be problematic for the Tar Heels. Despite adding multiple pieces at all three levels, North Carolina's defense has been underwhelming, especially over the last two weeks, although the Hurricanes are the best offense in the country. More concerning is the Tar Heels' inability to stop the run and to generate consistent pressure.
North Carolina is allowing 153.1 rushing yards per game this season, which is poised to be exploited on Saturday. The Huskies are averaging 190.8 rushing yards per game, with Cyncir Bowers leading the backfield. The 5-foot-9, 195-pound running back has 571 yards and seven touchdowns on 84 carries through eight games. UConn could certainly lean on the ground game to dictate terms. We've seen the Tar Heels marginalized countless times by this element.
Evaluating the pass defense's chances of containing the Huskies' air attack is difficult, as Kalieb Osborne is producing explosive numbers, but his completion percentage leaves much to be desired. Through eight games, the 6-foot-4, 218-pound quarterback has compiled 1,857 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing 60.0 percent of his passes. If the defensive line's recent struggles carry over into Saturday, North Carolina could be in serious trouble.