ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes No. 21 LSU has the one weapon capable of derailing No. 6 Texas on Saturday night, and he’s backing Lane Kiffin’s Tigers to protect Tiger Stadium against Arch Manning and the Longhorns.

On his Always College Football Week 11 preview, McElroy picked LSU to win 24-20 and called the Tigers’ pass rush against Texas’ protection “probably the most lopsided matchup on the board” on a slate with four games between ranked playoff teams.

Why does McElroy trust LSU?

The former Alabama quarterback built his pick around one mismatch in the trenches. “LSU has one of the best pass rushes in the country, and Texas has one of the shakiest pass protections,” McElroy said.

Texas (7-2) is coming off a 34-20 win at Missouri in which Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns, but he still went down three times. McElroy pointed to the quarterback’s patience as part of the problem.

“He does hold the ball looking for the perfect throw, and behind that line, the perfect throw sometimes arrives after the defense arrives,” McElroy said.

Edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen, an Austin native who followed Kiffin from Ole Miss, is the player McElroy expects to attack a Texas line that has struggled with twists and stunts. The Longhorns also listed offensive lineman Trevor Goosby as out on their final availability report at Missouri. McElroy said three LSU sacks would leave Texas “in third-and-long, where it converts just 20% of the time.”

Sam Leavitt and LSU’s red zone

LSU (6-3) brings flaws of its own after a 31-13 home loss to Alabama. Sam Leavitt completed 35 of 47 passes for 380 yards, but the Tigers went 0-for-4 on fourth down and scored one touchdown on four red zone trips.

“I wouldn’t think that would equal 13 points,” Kiffin said afterward.

Alabama’s fourth-quarter surge in Baton Rouge led Booger McFarland to declare the Crimson Tide a playoff lock, and Texas brings a defense built to repeat that formula. The Longhorns rank first nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play, according to Game on Paper.

“Texas’ defense is good enough to hold LSU to field goals, which is why I think this stays a fight,” McElroy said.

LSU’s tempo is the Tigers’ counter. McElroy noted that LSU runs nearly 80 plays per game and said, “If LSU’s tempo has the Texas linebackers gassed by, say, the fourth quarter, then the best defense on the field stops being the best defense on the field.”

What’s at stake in Baton Rouge?

The playoff committee ranked Texas sixth and LSU 21st on Tuesday, and the Longhorns enter 4-0 against ranked opponents. McElroy said a fourth loss would make LSU’s playoff chances “a no-go,” while a win would put the Tigers “back in the playoff mix.”

The New Orleans native grew up attending LSU games, but Steve Sarkisian doesn’t expect the homecoming to distract his quarterback.

“I don’t think he gives a crap, I’ll be honest with you,” Sarkisian said. “I really think he’s thinking about what coverages they’re going to play.”

Kiffin, who recruited Manning at Ole Miss, offered praise with one exception. “I think he’s an awesome kid and I hope he does really well, obviously outside of Saturday,” Kiffin said.

LSU linebacker Whit Weeks, who fractured his right fibula against Texas A&M on Sept. 26, was listed as doubtful against Alabama. McElroy said a Weeks return against Texas would be “enormous for the LSU defense.”

Texas and LSU kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.