Back
The Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Iowa State Cyclones have given the people what they want with their Halloween themed uniform matchup. But what about the game?
The Cowboys want to walk out of Jack Trice Stadium with a victory on Saturday as they face the Cyclones in a contest set for 6 p.m. on Fox.
The Cowboys (5-2. 3-1) are on the verge of bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2023 season. Head coach Eric Morris has turned the page on last year's 1-11 season, which led to Mike Gundy losing his job. The Cowboys are positioned as a candidate to reach the Big 12 championship game. Even with one league loss, as long as the Cowboys keep winning games, they have an opportunity.
Iowa State (3-4, 1-3) head coach Jimmy Rogers is also in his first year with the program, replacing another long-tenured coach as Matt Campbell is now at Penn State. The going has been a bit tougher for Rogers than it has been for Morris, But he has talent and ISU is looking for redemption after being blown out by Arizona.
Here are my four bold predictions for the game, including the final score.
The time is now for Morris to pull the trigger and put Braydon Nelson in the starting lineup. Shawn Torgeson has been solid for the Cowboys since he took over the starting role in Week 2 after the season-ending injury to Jacob Sexton. But after watching Nelson's playing time ramp up against Colorado last Saturday, it seems clear that Morris is gearing him up to start this week.
It wasn’t just the playing time. Nelson did quality work. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required) Nelson had a pass blocking grade of 71.1 while Torgeson was 55.5. With the volume of pass plays in the Air Raid offense, there's a premium on pass protection. Nelson appears to be ready for a full game.
This doesn't mean that Torgeson won't play. With the number of reps the Cowboys get on offense, Nelson is bound to need a possession or two off. But Nelson was the preseason projected starter at the position for a reason. He’s proven he’s ready to take over.
The way the Cowboys have used Hawkins the past two weeks and the way the Cyclones have used Aiden Flora all season leads me to believe that the two running backs could have huge game on Saturday.
Consider this. Even as Cowboys quarterback Drew Messtemaker has continued to pile up 300-yard passing games, Hawkins has racked up nearly 400 yards in total offense the past two weeks. That's because Oklahoma State is employing him as a receiver more often and he's responded the way the Cowboys hoped.
Iowa State has been using Flora as a joker all season. He has had highly productive games as a running back, but he can pass the ball, he can be a receiver and he returns punts, and he’s scored a touchdown on special teams. He hasn’t been used nearly as much as Hawkins as a receiver, but the Cowboys have shown some vulnerability in the screen game.
This could be a great matchup of two outstanding running backs and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they piled up the yards.
The stage is set for the Cowboys to face one of their former quarterbacks from a season ago, Zane Flores. On Thursday, Iowa State designated Connor Moberly as out for the game. That's important because Mobberly was the backup to quarterback Jaylen Raynor. When Raynor was benched during the Arizona game last weekend, Mobberly took over.
Rogers named Raynor the starter for this game, but that doesn't mean he'll finish it. He’s going to have to play much better to stay on the field all four quarters. With Mobberly out, Flores is the natural replacement should Rogers have to go to another quarterback.
It could be a situation where Oklahoma State gets such a big lead Rogers goes to Flores to end the game, as Colorado did last weekend. It’s more likely Flores gets a shot in the second half because Raynor, for the second straight week, struggles offensively. Does that set up a Zane Flores revenge game? Who knows.
But it wouldn't surprise me if the Cowboys see their old quarterback on Saturday — and not just for a pregame handshake.
Since Oklahoma State scored 10 points in Week 1 against Tulsa, the Cowboys have scored at least 32 points in each of their last six games. The 32 points came in the loss to Houston. In each win Oklahoma State has scored at least 39 points. As one might expect, the Cowboys tend to score more points at home than on the road.
But it's instructive to consider that in there are two road games in Big 12 play the Cowboys scored 41 points in West Virginia and 32 points at Houston, a team that is considered to have one of the best defenses in the conference. That leads me to believe that the Cowboys will score right in that wheelhouse on the road and the defense will do just enough to keep ISU’s Aiden Flora from dominating the game.
The Cowboys offense will pile up yards again, Caleb Hawkins will have multiple touchdowns for the first time this season and let's say safety Evan Jackson comes up with an interception, just to give cornerback LaDainian Fields a break after picking off three passes in the last two games.