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Fernando Mendoza new favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year ahead of his first NFL start

A wide-open race puts the No. 1 overall pick atop the odds board before his first career start, though a brutal schedule against top defenses looms

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The Minnesota Vikings beat the buzzer at Tuesday's NFL trade deadline, as they sent the Las Vegas Raiders a third-round pick for quarterback Kirk Cousins. There were plenty of winners in this trade. 

The Vikings get better at the most important position in football, the Raiders got nice compensation, and Cousins upgrades his own situation — going from 4-5 to 6-2 with Justin Jefferson. And then, there's Fernando Mendoza.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is now the Raiders' new starter, and because he's been promoted to first-string, Mendoza is now your new favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

It's pretty shocking to see a player making his first career start in Week 10 be favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but that just spotlights the fact that no one else in the class has really been able to separate.

Boston and Concepcion in Cleveland are the first teammate duo to rank 1-2 in rookie receiving yards through Week 9 in NFL history, but neither are inside the top 20 of receiving when it comes to the entire league. Coleman appears to be the new RB1 in Denver, but he hasn't crossed 60 yards rushing in a single game this season. Then there's Tate in Tennessee, who had a nine-catch, 145-yard explosion against the Baltimore Ravens last month, but his production has been inconsistent. 

It's possible one of those players steps up and ends the regular season on a tear, but the door is open for Mendoza to win rookie of the year despite the fact that he's completed just 6 of 8 passes for 48 yards halfway through the season.

"This is something that he's worked very hard for since the moment he's walked into this building," Raiders general manager John Spytek said of Mendoza. "He passed every test. ... He put us in a position where we had to make a very hard decision today with his growth as a person, as a teammate, as a leader, as a quarterback."

Challenges Mendoza faces

Mendoza has to be ready to roll immediately, because the Raiders have a few tough defenses coming up on their schedule. Mendoza will become the first No. 1 overall pick quarterback in NFL history to make his first career start against the defending Super Bowl champions, per CBS Sports Research, as Vegas hosts the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Mendoza also becomes the first No. 1 overall pick quarterback to make his first career start against the NFL's No. 1 defense since Vinny Testaverde in 1987. 

In Week 11, Mendoza makes his first road start against the Broncos, who rank top five in sacks and are currently on a five-game win streak. In Week 12 come the Browns, who have gone 54 straight games without allowing a 300-yard passer. That's tied for the longest streak in the NFL over the past 40 seasons.

Still, the Raiders feel as though the rookie is prepared for the moment. Sportsbooks seem to think so, too. 

"He's prepared," Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said. "He practices extremely well, and his work habits also allowed us to make this trade because we feel that he's ready to go. And we're excited for him to take the ball for the game here this Sunday."

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