For the first time since 2020, the Holy War finally broke Utah’s way. The Utes snapped BYU’s three-game winning streak in the series with a 28-20 win at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Utah stays undefeated and alone atop the Big 12, while the BYU Cougars fall to 7-2 (4-2 Big 12).

Their College Football Playoff path, which was clear coming into the day, now looks a lot more crowded.

What Are the Chances of BYU Making the College Football Playoff?

According to the PFN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), BYU’s chances of making the CFP fell from 39.7% before kickoff to 28.9% after the loss. That’s an 11-point drop in one morning, and the Cougars’ margin for error is essentially gone.

The Big 12 title game picture is worse.

BYU went into Salt Lake City with a 30.9% chance of reaching the conference championship in Arlington on December 4. It left at 17.9%, which means the Cougars’ odds of getting there dropped by more than 40%. With Utah in front and Texas Tech also in the mix with just one conference loss, BYU no longer controls its own path to the Big 12 title game.

They will need help.

This one hurts because BYU had control of the game despite a rocky start. Utah went up 14-0 less than five minutes in. Devon Dampier ran for a 22-yard touchdown on the opening drive, then threw a 46-yard score to Braden Pegan.

BYU then answered with 20 straight points. Bear Bachmeier hit freshman Legend Glasker for a 75-yard touchdown, and LJ Martin scored in his first game back after missing four games with an injury and the Cougars went to the halftime break ahead 20-14. The Cougars had outgained the Utes by a whopping margin of 273-35 after the early hole.

The second half was a different game. Bachmeier, who has had to carry the offense all season, threw two interceptions near or inside the red zone. Utah turned them into the lead and entered the fourth quarter up 28-20. In a game between two seemingly evenly matched teams, two failed red-zone trips decided it.

Remaining BYU Football Schedule

• vs. Baylor Bears

• at Kansas Jayhawks

• vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

While this schedule down the stretch doesn’t look all that difficult on the surface, there is no easy game left considering their postseason hopes are on the line. Baylor comes to Provo next week, and BYU can’t afford a letdown after a rivalry loss like this one.

Then comes Lawrence. Kansas is one of two Big 12 teams BYU has never beaten. The Jayhawks beat the Cougars in their first-ever Big 12 game in 2023, and in 2024 they ended BYU’s perfect season. A third loss to Kansas would end BYU’s playoff hopes.

BYU closes at home against Cincinnati on November 28. The Cougars are 4-0 all-time against the Bearcats, but this year that history won’t help much. Whatever happens in the first two games, the finale will probably carry real stakes.

The bottom line: BYU now needs three straight wins plus help elsewhere in the Big 12 to reach the conference title game. At 10-2, it could still make a case for an at-large bid, but a 28.9% CFP chance means the Cougars need things to break their way.

Kalani Sitake’s team won three straight Holy Wars to get here. Now they have to win three more weeks without a slip for just a shot at the Playoffs.