With precious weeks left to secure a historic long-term contract before the MLB offseason goes into deep freeze (and the specter of a potential salary cap throws a wrench in his free agency), Tarik Skubal's free agency is already off and running. According to reporting from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press on Tuesday night, Skubal is set to meet with a total of six teams. Blum himself names three specifically: the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and San Diego Padres. And thanks to the New York Post's Jon Heyman, we can add the Toronto Blue Jays to that list as well.

But that still leaves two more teams shrouded in mystery. Just who are Skubal's secret suitors? There's no way to know for sure until news breaks, of course, but reading the tea leaves a bit, we can at least venture an educated guess. So let's put our detective caps on and dig in.

Which potential dark horses are already out of the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes?

First, we need to figure out just which boxes need to be checked for a team to plausibly be in on Skubal, at least enough to warrant an in-person meeting with the two-time Cy Young winner. The first is motive: Is the team close (or close-ish) to contention, and do they have a particularly pressing need for a frontline starter? The second is money: Can they afford the potentially $400 million it will take to sign Skubal, and do they have any history of wading that deep into the free agent pool?

We can immediately cross off rebuilding teams, which means no Athletics, Angels, Royals, Nationals, Reds or Rockies. We can also cross off smaller-market teams: It's virtually impossible to see the Rays, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Mariners, Marlins, Brewers or Pirates ponying up to the extent required. And then, finally, we can cross off teams that simply have more pressing needs elsewhere: The Chicago Cubs need too much pitching, to the point where they've already more or less bowed out of the Skubal sweepstakes, while the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are set in their starting rotations and will probably prioritize other things this offseason.

The Astros and Rangers are looking to shed money this winter, not add it, so we can safely put them to one side. All due respect to the Giants, it's hard to see Skubal heading to the Bay given their recent track record. And while a reunion in Detroit would be a great story ... I mean, they traded him for a reason, right?

Which leaves us with five options: the Yankees, Braves, Cardinals and Diamondbacks. Arizona has thrown big money at free agents before, and lord knows they need pitching, but with Corbin Burnes opting into his deal, this doesn't feel like the right fit. Atlanta's rotation is a MASH unit and they should ostensibly have the funds available, but Alex Anthopoulos has never really gone after the biggest fish. Finally, we're down to two.

Tarik Skubal mystery team No. 1: New York Yankees

On the surface, the Yankees might seem like an odd fit here. New York had one of the best rotations in baseball this past season, and projects to again in 2027 with Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon all returning along with Ryan Weathers and Will Warren. The offense was the reason this team got bounced in the ALDS for the second straight year.

At the same time, though, there's a ton of age and injury concern in that group above. And the free agency market is such that the Yankees might have to deal from their pitching surplus to acquire the sort of difference-making infield bat they so desperately need. If that is in fact the case, then they might try to backfill any such move — Zach Neto? CJ Abrams? — with a Skubal signing, one that can safeguard against any regression or time missed from Fried, Cole or Rodon. At the very least, they should do due diligence, and we know Scott Boras wants them around for leverage purposes.

Tarik Skubal mystery team No. 2: St. Louis Cardinals

Stick with me here. The Cardinals were ahead of schedule last season, and they have a very promising group of position players in JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Joshua Baez, Leo Bernal and others. The one thing keeping this team from meaningful contention in the NL as soon as next year is its pitching staff, which has a gaggle of young back-end types in search of a true anchor.

Skubal would be rocket fuel for this team's contention window, and with so little in the way of long-term money on the books right now, there's no excuse for St. Louis not to be able to meet his asking price. The Cardinals have dramatically reduced payroll in recent years, but that had more to do with their rebuild than anything; we've seen them be serious bidders in the past under the DeWitts' ownership. Don't count them out here.