Rafael Camara’s early Formula 1 debut at Haas could trigger a chain reaction for Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson.

Haas announced on Tuesday that Camara would race at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, though they have yet to confirm their plans for the final three races.

Nikola Tsolov may now have golden opportunity to win F2 title and unseat Liam Lawson

Ryo Hirakawa deputised ably for Ocon in Mexico, crossing the line in 13th place but scoring a point after a flurry of penalties. Hirakawa is hoping to close out the WEC title with Toyota this weekend, which means he’s unavailable for Brazil.

Camara faces a similar dilemma. With two rounds remaining, he leads Nikola Tsolov by seven points in the Formula 2 standings, but he has now been given the opportunity to start his F1 career early.

Veteran journalist Adam Cooper is hearing that Camara is ‘unlikely to return’ to F2 for the Qatar/Abu Dhabi header, should it go ahead. Cooper reports that Audi junior Freddie Slater could be parachuted into Invicta instead.

Effectively mirroring Camara’s situation at Haas, Slater was already set to join Invicta in 2027 after finishing runner-up to Ugo Ugochukwu in Formula 3.

For Camara, withdrawing from F2 would almost certainly mean handing the title to Tsolov. But seeing as it’s ultimately a step on the ladder to F1, the Brazilian may view it as a worthwhile sacrifice.

Tsolov will still have to see off Alex Dunne, who’s 11 points behind him, but this may be a season-altering lifeline for the Bulgarian, whose loss of form was threatening to prove costly.

If Tsolov wins the F2 title, his case to replace Lawson will appear significantly stronger, even if Camara’s exit would be an important footnote.

Racing Bulls can afford to wait until the end of the year to make a decision because silly season has largely concluded.

David Croft already got the impression in Mexico that Lawson was ‘more and more likely’ to lose his seat, and he may now have suffered another small setback.

Lawson’s results this year have been excellent – his fightback from the pit lane to P7 in Mexico was his latest stellar drive – but Racing Bulls’ purpose is largely to act as a conveyor belt for Red Bull.

There is an argument that, with Verstappen committed long-term, they can afford to keep a reliable points-scorer like Lawson at Racing Bulls even if they have no intention of promoting him. He can effectively serve as a benchmark for a Red Bull hopeful like Arvid Lindblad.

Theoretically, Tsolov could be the reserve driver next year with the promise of a promotion in 2028. That, in all likelihood, would mean Lawson has to find another seat, but it may be seen as the fairest compromise.

But if Red Bull’s upper management – who will ultimately make the decision – are looking for justification to fast-track Tsolov, then the F2 title could be exactly what they need.

As Karun Chandhok said in Mexico, dropping Lawson would be one of the harshest calls in recent F1 history, but Oliver Mintzlaff and co. are more concerned about what’s best for the programme long-term.