LSU has two losses and sits outside the top 12 of the first College Football Playoff rankings, yet ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis believes first-year coach Lane Kiffin’s Tigers can win the national championship if they reach the bracket.

Davis made the case on the College GameDay Podcast this week: “If you’re looking for this year’s Miami, a team that, if it gets in, can win the national championship, it’s LSU.”

Why is LSU this year’s Miami?

Miami entered last season’s playoff as the final at-large team and the No. 10 seed. The Hurricanes then won at Texas A&M, beat Ohio State and Ole Miss and lost 27-21 to Indiana in the national championship game.

LSU (6-2) starts from a similar spot. The selection committee placed the Tigers at No. 14 in its first rankings on Tuesday, and only 12 teams make the field.

Kiffin’s team has played its best football since a 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky on Oct. 10. The Tigers shut out Mississippi State 31-0 at home and then routed Auburn 38-17 at Jordan-Hare Stadium to end an eight-game SEC road losing streak.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt, a transfer from Arizona State, threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns against Auburn and ran for a fourth score. Wide receiver Jackson Harris caught nine passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns.

The defense has allowed 16 points per game under coordinator Blake Baker, and edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen has nine sacks.

“I think LSU’s found itself,” Davis said. “And I think LSU is one of these teams that, as long as they don’t step on a rake someplace, if they get in the playoff, they’re really dangerous.”

Lane Kiffin’s rat poison message

Kiffin doesn’t want that praise reaching his players. Davis said Kiffin sent him video of Davis’ comments on The Pat McAfee Show playing inside LSU’s football building with a message over it: “Don’t listen to the rat poison. You haven’t done crap.” Davis added that the original message used a stronger word.

Kiffin picked up the phrase from former Alabama coach Nick Saban, his old boss in Tuscaloosa, and he’s leaned on it in Baton Rouge. After the 51-10 season-opening win over Clemson, Kiffin called ESPN and SEC Network host Paul Finebaum “the definition of rat poison” for praising LSU, explaining “that’s what your players read. And then all of a sudden they think, okay, we’ve arrived.”

Two weeks later, LSU lost 32-24 at Ole Miss when Leavitt threw an interception on fourth-and-goal from the 6-yard line.

What must LSU do against Alabama?

Davis was clear about the first step: “The biggest thing they have to do first is beat Alabama at home, which has not been easy for LSU historically and has been rare for LSU historically.”

Alabama is 30-10-2 all-time in Baton Rouge, and LSU’s last home win in the series came in overtime in 2022. The Crimson Tide (6-2) dropped back-to-back games to Georgia and Tennessee in October before quarterback Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes in a 31-20 win over Texas A&M.

Beating the committee’s No. 5 team would give LSU the best win on its résumé, and more chances follow. Texas, No. 7 in the CFP rankings, visits Tiger Stadium on Nov. 14 before the Tigers close at No. 13 Tennessee and Arkansas.

Winning all four would put LSU at 10-2. College GameDay Podcast co-host Dan Wetzel said that would be enough: “If LSU wins out, they’re going to make this playoff.”

Alabama vs. LSU kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.