Clemson’s home loss to Virginia Tech drew a shrug from much of the college football world, and ESPN contributor Josh Pate believes that muted reaction says more about the Tigers’ decline than the final score.

Virginia Tech won 20-16 on the road Saturday, its first win over Clemson since 2007, and Pate said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show that the result barely registered. “It’s kind of like people yawned at it because it doesn’t even mean anything to beat Clemson anymore,” Pate said.

James Franklin’s gamble at Clemson

Virginia Tech coach James Franklin won it with a fourth-down call. Trailing 16-13 with less than two minutes left, the former Penn State coach passed on a tying field goal on fourth-and-1 at the Clemson 5, and quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer found tight end Luke Reynolds for the go-ahead touchdown.

“It did enter my mind to kick the field goal,” Franklin said.

The win clinched bowl eligibility for the 6-2 Hokies one year after a 3-9 finish.

“Huge credit to James Franklin getting this done in Year 1. They’re 6-2 right now. Good for them. Bad for Clemson. Really bad for Clemson,” Pate said.

How far has Clemson fallen?

The Tigers fell to 4-3 after lopsided losses to LSU and Miami earlier this season, and Pate expects more damage over a closing stretch with trips to Florida State, Syracuse and Duke and home games against Georgia Tech and South Carolina.

“My guess is they’ll lose two more games minimum, and they already have three losses,” Pate said. “So we’re looking at a five-loss, maybe a six-loss season for Clemson.”

This is already Clemson’s sixth straight season with at least three losses, and Pate said the slide lands harder for viewers who watched the Tigers win national titles after the 2016 and 2018 seasons.

“If you’re 18 years old watching that, maybe it doesn’t punch you in the face like it does someone who’s lived through Clemson being bad, then Clemson being elite and now them falling all the way back to earth,” Pate said.

Dabo Swinney’s contract complicates change

Pate stopped short of calling for a change, saying the contract and legacy of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney complicate any decision.

“You ask yourself, with the contractual situation plus the legacy situation, how do you handle it?” Pate said. “I don’t have an answer for you. I don’t know.”

Swinney is under contract through 2031 on a 10-year, $115 million extension, and his buyout this season is $57 million with no offset if he takes another job.

The Clemson coach pinned Saturday’s loss on his staff after the Tigers managed 94 first-half yards. “It’s all coaching,” he said at halftime. “That’s 100% coaching. Pitiful.”

Clemson visits Florida State on Oct. 31 at 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.