ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes No. 12 Texas Tech’s College Football Playoff hopes take a hit in Stillwater on Saturday night, where Drew Mestemaker and Oklahoma State’s offense present a problem the Red Raiders’ defense hasn’t solved.

On his Always College Football Week 11 preview, McElroy picked Oklahoma State to win 34-30, pointing to a Texas Tech defense that has allowed 37, 26 and 48 points over its last three games.

Why is McElroy fading Texas Tech?

Texas Tech is 8-1, and the playoff committee ranked the Red Raiders as the first team out on Tuesday. Their only loss came 37-24 at Cincinnati, but last week’s 53-48 win over West Virginia exposed the same defensive issues after the Mountaineers erased a 14-point halftime deficit.

McElroy believes Oklahoma State’s offense is built to attack that weakness. “Oklahoma State’s deep passing hits the one part of Texas Tech’s defense that breaks,” he said.

Joey McGuire is counting on his pass rush to offset the breakdowns in the secondary. “I think we have 18 sacks in the last four games, so we’re getting after the passer,” McGuire said Monday.

Drew Mestemaker and the Cowboys

Oklahoma State (6-3) is coming off a 66-28 rout at Kansas State in which Mestemaker completed 22 of 28 passes for 313 yards and four touchdowns, then added a rushing score and a touchdown catch on a trick play. The North Texas transfer has set a school record with eight straight 300-yard passing games, passing Mason Rudolph’s mark of seven.

“He’s going to stand in, he’s going to wait on the deep ball, and on top of the big plays, man, he can drive it into very tight windows,” McElroy said.

Oklahoma State ranks first nationally in early-down EPA per play, according to Game on Paper, and McGuire expects the kind of game that follows from that. “Eric [Morris] has got their offense really rolling, and at different times they’ve played really good defense, so it’s probably going to be a slugfest next week, too,” McGuire said.

Mestemaker also has history with Texas Tech, which beat his North Texas team 66-21 in Lubbock in 2024. “That was not a fun game to be a part of,” he said this week.

What can Texas Tech’s offense do?

Thomas Castellanos gives the Red Raiders a reason to believe they can trade points. In his second start since replacing Will Hammond, he threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns against West Virginia and ran for 102 more, a week after going 11 of 24 for 144 yards against Arizona.

“He’s a runner first, but when he does throw, he throws it deep, and he’s throwing it better right now than he ever has at any point in his career,” McElroy said.

The ground game is Texas Tech’s surest path. J’Koby Williams ran for 160 yards against West Virginia, and McElroy noted McGuire’s teams are 17-1 when they run for more than 200 yards. Oklahoma State’s defense ranks 109th in EPA per pass allowed but has been steadier against the run, so the Red Raiders will need both Williams and Castellanos producing on the ground.

Castellanos has embraced the moment. McGuire said the quarterback texted him at 5:11 a.m. Sunday to thank him for the opportunity to be a Red Raider.

Texas Tech controls its path to the Big 12 Championship Game with three wins to close the regular season. The Red Raiders and Cowboys kick off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.